Open Source Intelligence Synergy and Serendipity Lewis F

Open Source Intelligence : Synergy and Serendipity Lewis F. Mc. Intyre Presented to Federal Knowledge Management Working Group 15 Nov 2006

AGENDA • DEFINITION OF OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE • TYPES OF OPEN SOURCES • ACCURACY – – Bias and Errors Estimate Vs. Observation Unintended Reporting Cultural Context • SERENDIPITY AND SYNERGY – The Unexpected Find – Cuing Other “INTs” • SOME INTERESTING FINDS • TECHNIQUES AND SUMMARY

DEFINITION OF OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE “Open source information for purposes of this directive is publicly available information (i. e. , any member of the public could lawfully obtain the information by request or observation), as well as other unclassified information that has limited public distribution or access. . . ” DCID 2 -12

TYPES OF OPEN SOURCES • PURELY OPEN (COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS) – – Newspapers & Magazines Websites Databases Books & Web Extracts, etc. • “GREY” INFORMATION (LIMITED OR PROPRIETARY, LEGAL RESTRICTIONS) – Subscriber-Only or Internal Information – Trip Reports – Academic Papers, etc.

SOURCE ACCURACY Bias and Errors • EVERY SOURCE HAS BIAS AND ERROR • BIAS: CONSISTENT “SLANT” – Selection in What to Report – Omission or Downplaying of Inconvenient Facts – Consistent Errors • ERRORS: OFF IN EITHER DIRECTION “First Report is Always Wrong” • INTENTIONAL DISINFORMATION: BOTH OURS AND THEIRS!

SOURCE ACCURACY Observation vs. Estimate • OBSERVATION: – Single Instance of a Single Source – Bias and Error Unknown • ESTIMATE: – Analyst Estimate of Situation: Based on • Cumulative Knowledge of Source Bias and Error • This and Other Sources – CONTAINS ANALYST’S OWN BIAS!

SOURCE ACCURACY Unintended Reporting • FACTS REPORTED OTHER THAN THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE STORY – Article on One Topic Discussing Government Funding – Interview with a Militant Leader May Describe a Neighborhood Where Interview Took Place – Correspondence May Describe Troop or Militant Frustrations • ALL THE THINGS WE ARE CAUTIONED ABOUT DOING OURSELF IN OPSEC TRAINING!

SOURCE ACCURACY Cultural Context • NORMAL FOR THAT CULTURE/COUNTRY – Pashtunwali Includes Both Blood Feuds, Protection of Outsiders – Demonstrations: a Threat to the Regime, Or Normal Venting? – Differences Between Sectarian Approaches • In Pakistan, and to Some Extent In Iraq: – Radical Sunnis Regard Shiites as Idolatrous Apostates, and Inflict Mass Casualties During Religious Observations – Shiites React with Targeted Assassinations – Local Radical Groups • Area of Operations • Leaders • Alliances • BE VERY ALERT WHEN SOMETHING IS OUT OF THE NORM

HIDDEN SINGLE SOURCES • GOVERNMENT AND OTHER LEAKS – Our Own and Others! – May be Picked Up by Others, or Intentionally Planted to Look Like Independent Reporting • SINGLE THREADED MEDIA OWNERSHIP – Western NGOs Set Up/Sponsor Domestic Media – “Multiple” Reporting May Reflect Single NGO Viewpoint

SERENDIPITY AND SYNERGY The Unexpected Find • SERENDIPITY: THE “UNEXPECTED FIND” – Government Funding and Complaints May Disclose Covert Diversion of Funds, Corrupt Individuals • Money Allocated • Not Reaching the Target Area – Neighborhoods Where Militants Grant Interviews Indicate “Safe House” Areas – Militant Troop Frustrations May Indicate Loss of Confidence in Leadership, Unreliable Equipment, Very Brief Training Time Before Combat, etc. • CLUES FOR WHERE ELSE TO LOOK

SARAJEVO SNIPER MAP

SOMALI OPPOSITION WARLORDS February 2002 Name Leader Region Remarks Somali Reconciliation and Reconstruction Council General Adan Abdullahi Gabyow Attempting to become overall front for opposition forces. Headquarters in Baidoa Chairman United Somali Congress/Somali National Alliance (USC/SNA) Hussein Mohamed Aydid south and southwest Mogadishu US Citizen, ex-marine Tenuous grip on followers. Son of Mohammed Farah Aydid, Co-chair SRRC Currently in Ethiopia. United Somalia Congress/Somali Salvation Alliance (USC/SSA) Muse Sudi Yalahow south and southwest Mogadishu Da’ud subclan of Abgal Clan Former ally of Ali Mahdi Mohammed, Somalia's interim president after Siad Barre's overthrow. Lost deputy commander (unident) and troops to TNG, weakening his support Supported by Ethiopia. Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA) Dr Hassan Mohamed Nor “Shatigudud” Rahanwein; Bay & Baykol; Digil Mirifle clans Rep to Somali Nat’l Peace Conf 00; broke with TNG in Oct 2001. Supported by Ethiopia. Claims militia strength 4000 men/40 technicals. Military Commander, RRA General Mohammed Said Hirsi Morgan Based in Baidoa; contender for control of Kismayo Considered a war criminal in Somaliland; “Butcher of Hargeisa. ” Allied to SPM, supported by Ethiopia. Somali Patriotic Movement (SPM) Aden Abdullahi Nur Gabyow Southern based Allied with USC/SNA, USC/SSA and RRA Somali Salvation Democratic Front Colonel Abdullahi Yusuf former leader of Puntland most aggressive opposition to TNG Supported by Ethiopia United Somali Congress (USC) Mohamed Qanyare Afrah south Mogadishu Joined TNG 16 Feb 01. Resigned from TNG Feb 02 Dissident faction of USC/SNA Usman Hassan Ali Atto south and southwest Mogadishu Signed onto TNG Nakuru agreement Dec 01. Declared against TNG Feb 02 Allied People’s Democratic Party (UDUP) Mohamed Ibrahim Egal Hargeisa, Somaliland Opposed to TNG, but moderating. President, Term expires in 02. Abdulrahman "Tur" Mogadishu first president of Somaliland 1991 -1993 Allied with Mohammed. Farah Aydid

M/V JENLIL Confusion Over the Identity of Hijacked Ship Jenlil, Puerto de Ceuta, 31 May 2002 • Hijacked around 30 July off Somalia and held for a $1 M ransom • No official report of hijacking appeared in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Weekly Piracy Report • Further reporting of negotiations for the release of the ship and crew disappeared from open reporting after mid-August. • Multiple sources (Lloyd’s List, the BBC, and most significantly, the Georgian press, which identified the crew members) identified it in mid-August as the Jenlil, • Greek-owned and registered in North Korea • Unusual arrangement between a European owner and the North Korean government. • One ship by that name has been identified, a Danish-flagged vessel, IMO registry 7045712. • Launched Feb 1971 as the Osteriff • Built by J. J. Sietas KG Schiffswerft Gmb. H & Co. • Name changed to Annette (1982), Renate (1987), Renate Omega (1987), and back to Renate in 1992. • Received its current name Jenlil in 1993. • Released from Rijeka, Croatia on 24 May after three days’ detention for various safety violations. • In port in Puerto de Ceuta, Spain, May 31, 2002. • Transited Suez Canal/Red Sea • Hijacked off Somalia 30 July Source: Paris MOU, May 2002

COLLECTION AND STAFFING • OPEN SOURCE IS FREE – And Worthless Without Good Staff! • VERY CONTEXT SENSITIVE – “Person in the Loop” Pattern Recognition – Developed Over Time • ARCHIVED DATABASE – Keep It Simple! – If You Think You Know How to Database It, You Are Presupposing the Questions You Will Ask!

SERENDIPITY AND SYNERGY Cuing Other “INTs” • CLUES FOR OTHER MORE POWERFUL INTELLIGENCE TOOLS TO FOCUS EFFORTS – ELINT/SIGINT/COMINT – IMINT – HUMINT – Bank Transfers

SUMMARY • “OPEN SOURCE” A POWERFUL TOOL – In Its Own Right – In Conjunction with other “INTs” • MORE OF AN ART THAN SCIENCE – “Person in the Loop” Pattern Recognition – Tailored to Needs • NEED FOR AN OSINT WG?