NUIG Climate Congress 2016 Tue 5 April Galway

NUIG Climate Congress 2016 Tue 5 April, Galway James Nix, Director of Green Budget Europe www. green-budget. eu director@green-budget. eu 1

The headline news Ireland 2 nd worst in Europe for climate change emissions with a 10% overshoot expected by 2020 Ireland in context: Ireland is 10% off target when it comes to meeting its 2020 commitment, second only to Luxembourg (which is projected to miss its 2020 commitment by 21%, but Luxembourg says updated figures will show this number to be radically lower, meaning Ireland could be in the reckoning for worst in Europe) 2

Ireland is set to fail its 2020 climate target by 10%. . . Q: where is Ireland falling down? Answer: transport & agriculture The EU Commissions says that: • Ireland is “not on track” mainly due to “an anticipated increase of 19% in transport emissions between 2013 and 2020 and a 2% increase during the same period from agriculture”, • “Issues related to the availability of public transport in Dublin and increasing congestion further complicate the achievement of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets”, and • “In transport, the proportion of renewable energy was 5. 2 % in 2014, only about half the 2020 target”. Source: Country Report for Ireland, Feb 2016 (issued under the 3 European Semester)

And agriculture? Agriculture “is particularly relevant as it is the biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland (32 % of the total), in sharp contrast to the EU average (12 % of the total)” The Commission notes the passage of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015. . . 4

Can the Climate Change law of Dec 2015 help? “Ministers”, the Commission notes: • “will have up to 18 months and 24 months from enactment to submit. . . key plans to government”. • “In addition, the Act does not set a deadline for government to approve the plans in their original or modified form”. • The Act “also does not set overall emission reduction targets by certain dates or lay down the expected contributions of key sectors” • Sectors’ contributions are “to be fully established in the national and sectoral plans” Conclusion: the framework of the Act can help – but effort-sharing remains undecided, as does the pace of reform 5

So the Act brings us right back to the key challenges in transport & agriculture. . . • Let’s discuss transport first; then agriculture • … and let’s do so seeking holistic solutions 6

Air pollution breaches: Ireland is not meeting the NEC Directive (partly due to NOx from diesel cars); vital to adopt holistic solutions Post Dieselgate adjustment needed which will up noncompliance by IE; see EPA 7 Source: EPA

Diesel cars made up 73% of new Irish car sales in 2014 Source: the European Carmakers’ Association, ACEA 8

Solutions • Electric buses: London already has more hybrid electric buses (1, 200) that the entire Dublin Bus fleet (1, 000) and has also recently deployed full electric buses • Full electric coaches are now also available • Car-sharing programmes using electric cars Finance: the transition to more sustainable transport can be funded by closing Ireland’s 10 c gap between diesel & petrol tax, phasing it out over 2 to 3 years 9

Another NEC breach: Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs); mainly due to agri (manure volume attributable to cattle no. ’s) 10

Contrast agriculture & energy. . . • While progress is halting at times, an energy transition is underway • The data suggests we also need a food transition 11

Agriculture accounts for more than 30% of Ireland’s climate change emissions 12 Source: EEA and Eurostat

Less than 1% and falling: percentage of Irish farms which are organic Ireland is 25 th out of 28 Member States 13 2015 Source: Eurostat

Ireland is 26 th of 28 based on land area farmed organically as a percentage of total area in use for agriculture Source: Eurostat 2016 14

Beef, dairy & not so much diversity: 92% of organic land is under grass, with a low level of crops / tillage / fruit & veg 15 Source: Eurostat

Number of organic processors by sub-sector, 2014 Source: Eurostat Denmark (5. 6 m pop. ) Ireland (4. 6 m pop. ) Slovenia (2. 1 m pop. ) Finland (5. 4 m pop. ) Norway (5. 1 m pop. ) Meat 141 28 15 96 77 Fish / Seafood 26 25 0 8 14 Fruit & Veg 69 11 22 78 51 Oils / Fats 14 3 8 16 2 Dairy 72 10 6 34 45 Grain milling 21 4 13 84 27 Baking 96 10 27 90 58 Other 194 22 243 81 67 Animal feed - 3 3 44 10 Total 633 116 337 531 351 16

Farm income went backwards in Ireland, 2000 to 2010 Member State 2000 – 05 average 2005 – 10 average Czech Republic 79. 4 102. 7 Denmark 101. 0 95. 9 Estonia 68. 0 113. 5 Ireland 89. 2 82. 9 Croatia 100. 0 119. 9 Austria 97. 3 111. 7 Slovenia 77. 9 99. 3 Slovakia 97. 7 110. 8 Finland 96. 0 107. 4 Sweden 94. 7 118. 4 100% = 2005 average Norway 118. 9 110. 8 Source: Eurostat 17

Ireland being 3 rd or 4 th last in EU for organic prompts a query Is there a link between MSs with low average farm incomes and failing to capitalise on the expanding, and higher margin, market for organic produce? A more rigorous review of the data is required to bottom out this question. However, the policy prescription to farmers in Ireland, namely to pile into the commodity milk market, where: • farmers are price takers based on global commodity availability (now c. 23 cents per litre, with slacking demand, e. g. from Asia), & • continued government promotion of volume instead of obtaining higher value & differentiated produce (e. g. organics) points to a government policy which places average farm incomes at high price risk. 18

Ireland also struggling on ammonia, with agriculture accounting for 98% such emissions Source: Eurostat 19

Across the EU there has been a 45% drop in farmland birds since 1990 Sources: EBCC , RSPB , Bird. Life, Statistics Netherlands & Eurostat 20

Irish data mirrors the EU picture Source: Bird. Watch Ireland 21

Just as we started to make life untenable for most farmland birds from the 1970 s. . . Irish government action & inaction is orienting transport and agriculture to help make life untenable for humans, while knowing that Ireland stands some steps behind the front line consequences. Worse, the fallout from Irish government regression and obstructiveness isn’t confined to its own territory: • Ireland is actively lobbying at European level to delay, fudge and weaken post 2020 climate action, particularly on agriculture and, by extension, transport, as well as other areas subject to EU effort-sharing. • Weaker EU action has a global impact over time. 22

Questions / discussion Thank you 23