Notes Check Take out Module 42 notes on

Notes Check • Take out Module 42 notes on inflation for a quick notes check (no quiz) • Take a worksheet from the front of the room • T/E Skill: Gather and organize information and data

Business Cycle Is the economy getting better or worse?

Business Cycle • The Business Cycle allows people to understand the direction the economy (GDP) is going (growing or shrinking) and plan accordingly. • The economy follows the Business Cycle regularly.

Phases of the Business Cycle Expansion (Growing) Peak (Top) Contraction (Shrinking) Trough (Bottom)

Business Cycle Peak ion ns pa Ex sio pa n Ex n io n tio ac ct ra ntr Trough nt Co Co n Peak

Expansion • During a period of expansion: – Wages increase – Low unemployment – People are optimistic and spending money – High demand for goods – New businesses start – Easy to get a bank loan – Businesses make profits and stock prices increase – Inflation tends to increase

Peak • When the economic cycle peaks: – The economy stops growing (reached the top) – GDP reaches maximum – Businesses can’t produce any more or hire more people – Cycle begins to contract

Contraction • During a period of contraction: – Businesses cut back production and layoff people – Unemployment increases – Number of jobs decline – People are pessimistic (negative) and stop spending money – Banks stop lending money – Inflation tends to decrease

Trough • When the economic cycle reaches a trough: – Economy “bottoms-out” (reaches lowest point) – High unemployment and low spending – Stock prices drop But, when we hit bottom, no where to go but up! UNLESS….

Recession/Depression • A prolonged contraction is called a recession (contraction for over 6 months) • A recession of more than one year is called a depression

What keeps the Business Cycle Going? • 4 variables cause changes in the Business Cycle: 1. Business Investment When the economy is expanding, sales and profit keep rising, so companies invest in new plants and equipment, creating new jobs and more expansion. In contraction, the opposite is true

What Keeps the Business Cycle Going? 2. Interest Rates Low interest rates, companies make new investments, adding jobs. When interest rates climb, investment dries up and less job growth 3. Consumer Expectations Forecasts of an expanding economy fuels more spending, while fear of a recession decreases consumer spending

What keeps the Business Cycle Going? 4. External Shocks, such as disruptions of the oil supply, wars, or natural disasters greatly influence the output of the economy Ex. 1992 -2000 was the longest period of expansion in U. S. history. Early in 2001, signs of contraction appeared, though the Bush administration denied it. The Sept. 11 th 2001 terrorist attacks quickly caused the business cycle to shift into a contraction.

Who Cares? ? ? • Why should you care about the business cycle and economy?

“Don’t quit that job!” • If the economy is going into a contraction, jobs will become more scarce. If you quit, you may not find another job! • But, if the economy is in a period of expansion, jobs are readily available. It may be a good time to switch careers.

“Should I make a big purchase? ” • Only if you know that you won’t lose your job in a contraction. So, buy your house during an expansion. HOWEVER, • When the economy starts to slow down (contraction), interest rates will decrease. Wait to buy a house until the rates drop to a low point, if you are sure you won’t lose your job.

Quick Review! • What phase of the business cycle do wages go up? • Expansion • What phase of the business cycle do wages go down? • Contraction

Review cont. • When are wages at their highest? • Peak • When are wages at their lowest? • Trough

More Review • When will borrowing decrease? • Contraction • When will borrowing increase? • Expansion • When will borrowing be at it’s lowest? • Trough

Even More Review! • When will unemployment be at its lowest? • Peak • When will business profits be the highest? • Peak • When should you look for a new job? • Expansion

Practice: • For the following slides, decide whether the scenario would be counted in GDP. Remember, they can be included either through expenditure, or income method

GDP? • Shami earns $7. 50/hr working a the local grocery store • Yes, wage

GDP? • The US armed forces invade a small island in the process spend $5 billion on machines, arms, and ammunition • Yes, Gov’t purchases

GDP? • A rancher receives a monthly check for the oil pumped off of his property • Yes, rent

GDP? • Intel spends $300 million building a semiconductor factory in San Jose, Costa Rica • No, Not included- outside US

GDP? • Lindsey buys a new John Deere tractor for her organic farming business in New Hampshire • Yes, investment

GDP? • Jim and Frank decide to start a boy band purchase a used Volkswagon Euro Wan in which to tour • No, Not counted, used van

Practice • For the following examples, determine what type of unemployment applies, or if the person would not be counted in the labor force

Unemployment? • Arvod cannot find work as a mall Santa in January • Seasonal

Unemployment? • Beulah leaves her job to become a stay at home mom • Not in labor force

Unemployment? • Boris the human calculator is replaced by the TI-83 • Structural

Unemployment? • Trisha graduates from college and begins looking for work • Frictional

Unemployment? • Uncle Frank likes to sleep on the couch all day at his parents’ house and at night play video games. He has not turned in a job application in twelve years • Not in labor force

Unemployment? • Grover is laid off of work when the economy experiences a recession • Cyclical

Organize and Review • Work with a partner, if you choose, to organize your notes and start filling out this study sheet • If you would like extra practice with inflation and multiple choice questions, there is an extra practice question up front

Test Format • 40 multiple choice • 1 “short answer” equation problem • Check my teacher page for any missing materials • Any questions?