JSC SVYAZINVEST ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET FORWARDLOOKING STATEMENTS Certain
- Slides: 37
JSC SVYAZINVEST ON TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS _Certain statements in this presentation are not historical facts and represent “forward-looking” statements. Example of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: _projections or expectations of revenues, profit (or loss), earnings (or loss) per share, dividends, capital structure, other financial indicators or ratios; _statements of our plans, objectives or goals, including those related to products or services; _statements of future economic indicators; _statements of prerequisites underlying such statements. _Words such as “believes”, “expects”, “supposes”, “plans”, “is going to” and “intends”, as well as similar expressions, are intended to identify forward-looking statements but for all that are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. _By their very nature, forward-looking statements imply some inherent risks and uncertain points, both general and specific, and there is some risk that the plans, expectations, forecasts and other forward-looking statements will not be realized. You should remember that owing to a number of important factors, actual results might substantially differ from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forwardlooking statements, including our ability to execute our restructuring and cost reduction programme. _When relying on forward-looking statements, you should carefully analyze the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events which are not clear, especially in light of the political, economic, social and legal environment in which the Company operates. Such forward-looking statements are valid only as of the date on which they are published, and the Company does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them whether as a result of new information, new events or otherwise. The Company does not make any statement, does not provide any affirmation and does not publish any forecast that the results anticipated by such forwardlooking statements will be achieved. Such forward-looking statements represent only one of many possible scenarios of situation and should not be considered as the most likely or standard course of events. 2
_SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PROFILE AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS _IMPACT OF TELECOM MARKET CHANGES ON THE ACTIVITY OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP _UNREGULATED SERVICES – PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT TREND FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP _PROSPECTS FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP 3
RUSSIA TODAY Pace of growth of Russian economy, % * § High and sustainable pace of growth of Russian economy § Growth of common welfare and consumer's demand § Russian economy is becoming more attractive in the eyes of foreign partners 4 *- source: Ministry for Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation Growth of Real Wage in Russia, % * Direct foreign investment in Russian economy, USD bln *
SVYAZINVEST: STRUCTURE AND COVERAGE State Comstar-UTS MGTS Finance 75% - 1 share 17. 31% + 1 share 7. 69% Svyazinvest Rostelecom MGTS Other Controlling stake 7 RTOs Uralsvyazinform North-West 8. 3 mln lines in service Telecom Market cap equals 4. 4 mln lines in USD 2, 522 mln* service Market cap equals Center. Telecom USD 2, 011 mln* 6. 7 mln lines in service Market cap equals USD 1, 796 mln* South Telecom 4. 1 mln lines in service Market cap equals Volga. Telecom 5. 0 mln lines in USD 783 mln* service Sibirtelecom Market cap equals 4. 7 mln lines in USD 1, 903 mln* service Market cap equals USD 1, 815 mln* Blocking stake _Foundation of Svyazinvest – September 18, 1995 _Sale of the company’s blocking stake to Mustcom July 1997 _Corporate integration: 72 telecom companies were consolidated into 7 interregional companies throughout 2000 -2002 5 Dalsvyaz 1. 5 mln lines in service Market cap equals USD 684 mln* * - market caps as of November 9, 2007 _Rostelecom owns a powerful backbone network spreading across almost all the territory of Russia. The Company’s network is around 200, 000 km long. The level of Company’s market capitalization equals $7, 746 mln. _At present, the estimated capitalization of Svyazinvest is some $9. 8 bln.
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP * Russian Accounting 17. 9 Standards 16. 0 REVENUE [USD, bln] % 2006 21. 9 % EXPENSES [USD, bln] 14. 6 % 2006 2005 4. 1% OPERATING INCOME [USD, bln] 15. 0 % 13. 6 % NET PROFIT [USD, bln] 2005 71. 6 % 2006 2007 F 3 Q 2006 3 Q 2007 16. 9% 3 Q 2007 F 3 Q 2006 2005 24. 4 % 3 Q 2006 2005 15. 9 % 2007 F 41. 4 % 2006 2005 6 21. 9 % 2006 2005 EBITDA [USD, bln] 17. 9 % % 2005 International Accounting Standards 17. 9% 26. 9% 3 Q 2007 2006 2005 30. 6 % 24. 7% 3 Q 2007 2006 2005 47. 7 % 32. 1% 3 Q 2007 2005 * - hereinafter (unless otherwise indicated) : a) aggregated indicators are given according to RAS; b) Svyazinvest Group includes the following companies: Rostelecom, 7 RTOs, Central Telegraph, Dagsvyazinform 2006
MARKET SHARE OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP OF COMPANIES * INTRA-ZONAL TELEPHONY MARKET DATACOM MARKET TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET LD / ILD MARKET MOBILE TELEPHONY MARKET ** LOCAL TELEPHONY MARKET - Share of Svyazinvest group (Rostelecom + 7 - Share of other. RTOs) 7 * - asproviders of the end of 1 H 2007 ** - on the licensed coverage area of 7 RTOs
KEY INFRASTRUCTURE INDICATORS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP INSTALLED CAPACITY, mln lines DIGITALIZATION RATE, % -1% +5% 8
INVESTMENT POLICY: DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT, USD, bln 1. 93 1. 53 9 1. 40 Traditional telephony Development of infrastructure New services and ITtechnologies Other
KEY OPERATIONAL INDICATORS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP LINES PER EMPLOYEE, unit REVENUE PER EMPLOYEE, USD thousand + 16% + 30% +22% + 30% + 23% +15% NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, employees, thousand - 10. 9% -9. 0% -5. 0% 10 * - forecast
DEBT OVERVIEW CAPITAL STRUCTURE, USD bln RATIO BETWEEN CURRENCY AND RUBLE-DENOMINATED $ 14. 2 bln. $ 12. 2 bln. $ 10. 4 bln. AVERAGE COST OF CREDIT RESOURCES, % In 2006 – 2007, major changes were made to the structure, cost and amount of the debt portfolio of the companies in Svyazinvest Group. Changes in the cost of attracting credit resources are due both to the upgrade of the RTOs’ credit ratings and to the general market correction. 11 * - forecast
BOND ISSUES 07 Date of issue 21. 03. 06 Rub 3 bln ($109 mln) Maturity date 6 years Central Telegraph 03 05. 04. 06 Rub 700 mln ($25 mln) 3 years No offer Interest rate 8. 4% for 3 years 9. 75% Sibirtelecom 07 24. 05. 06 Rub 2 bln ($74 mln) 3 years No offer 8. 65% D 2 07. 06 Rub 2 bln ($75 mln) 6 years In 4 years D 3 07. 06 Rub 1. 5 bln ($56 mln) 3 years No offer 8. 85% for 4 years 8, 6% 05 05. 09. 06 Rub 3 bln ($112 mln) 5 years In 2 years Volga. Telecom VT-4 12. 09. 06 Rub 3 bln ($112 mln) 7 years In 3 years North-West Telecom 04 14. 12. 06 Rub 2 bln ($76 mln) 5 years Call option in 2 years at 102% South Telecom 05 06. 07 Rub 2 bln ($77 mln) 5 years In 3 years Company Uralsvyazinform Dalsvyaz Center. Telecom Series Nominal value* Offer / other conditions In 3 years _Total volume of placement in 2006 -2007 was Rub 19. 2 bln (USD 716 mln) 12 * Estimated average USD rate was based on the exchange rate quoted by the CBR as of the placement date 8. 09% for 2 years 7. 99% for 3 years 8. 1% 7. 55% for 3 years
SVYAZINVEST GROUP: DYNAMICS OF CAPITALIZATION CALCULATED COMPARED WITH THE RTS INDEX, 2006 -2007 13
RTOs AND ROSTELECOM SHAREHOLDER CAPITAL STRUCTURE NORTH-WEST TELECOM CENTERTELECOM 37% 40% 38% 36% 12% 17% 38% 36% 9% SIBIRTELECOM ROSTELECOM 38% 14 14% 25% 22% 39% 38% 9% 41% 13% DALSVYAZ 14% 11% URALSVYAZINFORM SOUTH TELECOM 11% 42% 38% 11% 12% VOLGATELECOM 9% 38% 13% 10% Non-residents (legal entities) Individuals Residents (legal entities) JSC Svyazinvest
RTOs AND ROSTELECOM CREDIT RATINGS Company Rating Outlook Agency BB-/ВВ- Stable / Stable S&P/Fitch South Telecom В- Credit Watch Positive S&P Center. Telecom B+/B Positive / Positive S&P/Fitch Volga. Telecom BB- Stable S&P Dalsvyaz В+ Stable Fitch BB-/B+ Stable / Stable S&P/Fitch Sibirtelecom B+ Stable Fitch Rostelecom BB- Stable S&P North-West Telecom Uralsvyazinform 15
_SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PROFILE AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS _IMPACT OF TELECOM MARKET CHANGES ON THE ACTIVITY OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP _UNREGULATED SERVICES – PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT TREND FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP _PROSPECTS FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP 16
IN 2007, THE RUSSIAN TELECOM MARKET HAS DEVELOPED ACCORDING TO GENERAL INTERNATIONAL TENDENCIES HOWEVER, IT HAS ALSO BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC FEATURES GENERAL TENDENCIES 1– Mobile traffic replacing fixed traffic 2– Development of broadband Internet access 3– Liberalization of LD market SPECIFIC TENDENCIES 1– Switch to new system of tariff plans 2– Introduction of “Calling Party Pays“ principle 3– Introduction of new interconnect rules 4– Convergence of telecom services ALL THESE FACTORS HAVE A DIFFERENT IMPACT COMPANIES OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP KEEP THEIR MARKET POSITIONS 17
LIBERALIZATION OF LD MARKET ü SINCE JANUARY 1, 2006 LD MARKET HAS BEEN LIBERALIZED ü 32 LICENCES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DATE ü SEVERAL PROVIDERS ARE ACTUALLY OPERATING ON THE LD MARKET: ROSTELECOM, GOLDEN TELECOM, MTT, TRANSTELECOM MARKET POSITION OF ROSTELECOM ON LD MARKET, ESTIMATED TRAFFIC (1 H 2007) MARKET POSITION OF ROSTELECOM ON ILD MARKET, ESTIMATED TRAFFIC (1 H 2007) 91% 89% - Share of Rostelecom 18 Source: i. KS-consulting, internal accounts of Svyazinvest - Share of other operators
INTRODUCTION OF “СALLING PARTY PAYS” PRINCIPLE MOU F 2 M, [MIN / MONTH] F 2 M REVENUE, [USD MLN] - +24% 11 +19% +12% +14% % +16% +9% +31% +24% SUBSCRIBERS ATTITUDE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF CPP, % 19 Source: Research by Com. Con, March 2007 +11% +9% +12% +21% +17% +32% +17% SUBSCRIBERS ACTIVITY FOR F 2 M CALLS AS OF JUNE, 2007, % Source: Research by ROMIR, June 2007
SWITCH TO NEW SYSTEM OF TARIFF PLANS (1) TARIFF PLANS (PSTN, average for RTOs), USD CURRENT TARIFFS (PSTN as of date below, average for RTOs), USD 32% 11 ** ** SUBSCRIBER TARIFF PLAN (PSTN, average for RTOs), USD 368 min ¢ 0. 7 16* ¢ 0. 9 8* ACCORDING TO RF CIVIL CODE, THE CURRENT PAYMENT SYSTEM REMAINS EFFECTIVE FOR THOSE WHO FAIL TO SELECT A TARIFF PLAN 20 - Payment for line -Cost per minute of connection -Payment for base number of -Payment for maximum number of connections FORMATION OF TRANSITIONAL PERIOD MASS PR CAMPAIGN CONDUCTED * - Total fee incl. line rental ** - Tariff for regions where it is not technically possible to introduce tariff plans
SWITCH TO NEW SYSTEM OF TARIFF PLANS (2) BREAKDOWN OF INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIBERS BY TARIFF PLAN (IN REGIONS WHERE IT IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE TO INTRODUCE TARIFF PLANS), AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2007 BREAKDOWN OF INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIBERS BY TARIFF PLAN (TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE REGIONS WHERE IT IS NOT TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE TO INTRODUCE TARIFF PLANS), AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2007 21
_SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PROFILE AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS _IMPACT OF TELECOM MARKET CHANGES ON THE ACTIVITY OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP _UNREGULATED SERVICES – PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT TREND FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP _PROSPECTS FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP 22
GROWTH ON DATACOM MARKET GROWTH FORECAST FOR TELECOM MARKET, СAGR USD BLN erage al av annu + 11% EARNINGS FORM DATACOM SERVICES, USD BLN % erage al av u n n a +23% СAGR % +30% + 11% Internet and datacom Mobile 0% Individuals + 8% Organisations communications LD services Local voice Source: Mc. Kinsey _Datacom will be the fastest growing market segment. Most expansion will come from broadband Internet access. 17% Source: Mc. Kinsey INTERNET PENETRATION AND BIA IN RUSSIA (SUBSCRIBERS), % _ The penetration of broadband Internet access (BIA) will grow in line with disposable income, computerization, network upgrades and cost reduction. 23 + 23% Source: Ural. Sib
GROWTH POTENTIAL OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP IN THE NEW SERVICES SEGMENT, USD mln * DYNAMICS OF INVESTMENTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SERVICES AND IT TECHNOLOGIES, USD mln * BREAKDOWN OF REVENUE FROM UNREGULATED SERVICES IN 2007 (FORECAST) REVENUE FROM NEW SERVICES IN TOTAL REVENUE OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP, USD mln* + 70 % _Based on our forecast, Internet and datacom will achieve revenue growth of 70% in 2007. 24 * - not incl. cellular
BROADBAND ACCESS SERVICES MARKET SHARE OF DATACOM SERVICES, % NUMBER OF x. DSL ANF ETTH PORTS ENABLED AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2007, TH. 24% KEY REGIONAL BRANDS AND ARPL (3 Q 2007) Company 25 Center. Telecom North-West Telecom South Telecom Volga. Telecom Uralsvyazinform Sibirtelecom Dalsvyaz ARPL, $ 26 22 39 25 34 31 35 Brand Domolink Avangard DISEL J Utel Webstream Disly 40%
SVYAZINVEST GROUP ON THE MOBILE TELEPHONY MARKET LICENCE COVERAGE OF GSM OPERATORS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS BASE, thousand _In 2006, the Group’s mobile business policy was to increase the presence of RTOs on the cellular market and to consolidate assets. _Svyazinvest Group companies offer mobile services in 27 regions of the Russian Federation. 26
FINANCIAL RESULTS OF CELLULAR OPERATORS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP VOLGA, USD mln URAL, USD mln SIBIR, USD mln 27
TRENDLINES IN AVERAGE ARPU* AND MOU* OF MOBILE ASSETS OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP IN THE MAIN REGIONS AVERAGE ARPU TRENDLINE, USD AVERAGE MOU TRENDLINE, min. *ARPU – average revenue per user **MOU – minutes of use per subscriber 28
_SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PROFILE AND DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS _IMPACT OF TELECOM MARKET CHANGES ON THE ACTIVITY OF SVYAZINVEST GROUP _UNREGULATED SERVICES – PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT TREND FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP _PROSPECTS FOR SVYAZINVEST GROUP 29
SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PRIMARY OBJECTIVES § To boost revenue by broadening the scope of services provided (employing modern technologies) and by raising tariffs for local voice services. § To maintain strong operating efficiency with a view to revised relations between operators, liberalization of the LD market and emergence of new competitive environment. § To roll out new generation networks (NGNs) and provide a technological framework so that the company can rapidly create and provide top-notch services throughout the Russian Federation. § To take further steps towards improving the efficiency of Svyazinvest Group’s management system (to phase in ERP, to introduce a unified billing system and OSS – Operations Support System; to implement a set of actions to use human resources more effectively, etc. ) 30
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL TELEPHONY MARKET : Svyazinvest’s position in 2007 1. MOU growth in the local connections segment, [MIN / MONTH] +20% Market Tendencies Objectives for 2012 1. Mobile traffic replacing fixed traffic 2. Alternative operators and players from other segments entering the market 3. Switching voice traffic to datacom networks To keep leading positions in the local telephony segment Svyazinvest Initiatives 2. Revenue growth in the local connections segment, [USD MLN] * +18% 31 To increase the value of subscriber line: 1. Digitalization of networks 2. Introduction of service packages 3. New communication services 4. «Unlimited» tariffs * - line rental and connection services Market share of Svyazinvest Group in this segment 81%
DEVELOPMENT OF INTRA-ZONAL TELEPHONY MARKET : Svyazinvest’s position in 2007 Market Tendencies 1. F 2 M revenue growth, [USD MLN] +17% 1. Mobile traffic replacing fixed traffic 2. Reduction of tariffs 3. New players entering the market Objectives for 2012 To keep leading positions in the intra-zonal telephony segment Svyazinvest Initiatives 2. F 2 F revenue decrease, [USD MLN] -12% 1. To provide package offers 2. To optimize tariffs 32 Market share of Svyazinvest Group in this segment 92%
DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNET AND DATACOM MARKET : Svyazinvest’s position in 2007 1. Internet and datacom revenue growth, [USD MLN] +62% 2. Rapid growth of subscriber database, [x. DSL + ETTH, th. ports] +27% +28% +31% 33 As of Jan 1 As of Jul As. Apr of Oct 1 1 1 Market Tendencies 1. Growth of demand for and speed of Internet access 2. Switching to unlimited offers 3. Competition between technologies (DSL, ETTH, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, 3 G) 4. Content becoming increasingly important Objectives for 2012 To increase market share in the Internet access and datacom segment Svyazinvest Initiatives 1. To develop DSL access on existing subscribers’ lines 2. To develop ETTH as soon as market saturation occurs 3. To establish partnerships with content aggregating agents Market share of Svyazinvest Group in this segment 59%
DEVELOPMENT OF LD MARKET : Svyazinvest’s position in 2007 1. Prices for services rendered are lower than competitors’ [Average Income Rate, USD MIN] 2006 1 H 2007 Rostelecom Competitors 2. Market share is decreasing as a result of liberalization 94% 89% 96% 91% DLD ILD 2006 34 1 H 2007 2006 1 H 2007 LD MARKET Market Tendencies Objectives for 2012 1. New players entering the market and competition increasing 2. Voice traffic switching to datacom networks 3. Mobile traffic replacing fixed traffic 4. Development of intelligent telecom networks To keep leading positions in the LD communications segment Svyazinvest Initiatives 1. To protect company’s positions on the retail market 2. To develop intelligent telecom networks 3. To strengthen positions on the corporate clients market, incl. at the federal level Market share of Svyazinvest Group in this segment 60%
GROWTH OF OPERATING RESULTS Svyazinvest Initiatives Income 1. To increase the share of broadband services 2. To promote bundled services 3. To increase customer loyalty 4. To diversify distribution channels and roll out a system for active agent sales 5. To increase the share of corporate clients Svyazinvest Initiatives Expenses 35 1. 2. 3. 4. To introduce outsourcing To develop e-auctions To optimize real estate assets To optimize business processes and organizational structure 5. To roll out New Generation Networks 6. To optimize the number of employees Between 2008 and 2012, the income CAGR will equal 2012 8, 5%* Good FINANCIAL RESULTS, as the company anticipates that income will grow more than expenses Between 2008 and 2012, the expenses CAGR will equal EBITD A margin 41, 4%* 7, 2%* * - 7 RTOs
SVYAZINVEST GROUP: PROSPECTS OF KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR 2008 * REVENUE, USD bln OPERATING INCOME, USD bln 36 * - 7 RTOs + Rostelecom OPERATING EXPENSES, USD bln NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES, thousand
55 bld. 2 ulitsa Plyuschikha 119121 Moscow RUSSIA Phone: +7 (495) 727 0473 Fax: +7 (495) 727 0475 E-mail: ir@svyazinvest. ru Web site: www. svyazinvest. ru 37
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