IMPROVING LUCF GHG INVENTORY and the FAO FRA

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IMPROVING LUCF GHG INVENTORY and the FAO FRA: the Philippine Case Rodel D. Lasco

IMPROVING LUCF GHG INVENTORY and the FAO FRA: the Philippine Case Rodel D. Lasco Environmental Forestry Programme University of the Philippines

Introduction ® evolution of GHG inventory in the LUCF sector in the Philippines ®

Introduction ® evolution of GHG inventory in the LUCF sector in the Philippines ® research efforts in improving GHG inventory in LUCF ® The role of the FAO FRA project

2 THE IPCC GUIDELINES FOR LUCF I. Changes in forest and woody biomass DATA

2 THE IPCC GUIDELINES FOR LUCF I. Changes in forest and woody biomass DATA NEEDS: • area of forests • annual growth rate • carbon fraction of dry matter • commercial harvest • fuelwood use • other wood used

II. Forests and grassland conversion Data Needs • area converted annually • biomass before

II. Forests and grassland conversion Data Needs • area converted annually • biomass before and after conversion • fraction of biomass burned on site • fraction of biomass oxidized on site • carbon fraction of biomass • fraction left to decay

III. CO 2 emissions and uptake by soils Data Needs: • Soil carbon •

III. CO 2 emissions and uptake by soils Data Needs: • Soil carbon • Land area • Base factor • Tillage factor • Input factors • Annual C loss rate • Total annual lime

Relationship among IPCC module categories Worksheet 5 -3 Worksheet 5 -5 Worksheet 5 -2

Relationship among IPCC module categories Worksheet 5 -3 Worksheet 5 -5 Worksheet 5 -2 Worksheet 5 -6 Worksheet 5 -4

3 EVOLUTION OF GHG INVENTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE LUCF SECTOR Source 1990 inventory (1997

3 EVOLUTION OF GHG INVENTORY IN THE PHILIPPINE LUCF SECTOR Source 1990 inventory (1997 US Country 1990 inventory Studies) (1998 ALGAS) 1994 inventory (1999 Philippine Nat. Comm. ) Change in Forests and biomass stocks -48654 2622 -68323 Forest and grassland conversion 120738 80069 68197 Abandonment of managed lands Net Emissions Total Philippine emissions % of total emissions In Gg CO 2 equivalent -1331 Not determined 70, 753 81, 360 -126 128, 620 164, 103 100, 738 55. 01 49. 58 -0. 13

Table 4 Annual aboveground biomass uptake used in the Philippine nation GHG inventory (from

Table 4 Annual aboveground biomass uptake used in the Philippine nation GHG inventory (from Francisco, 1997) Land Type Annual Biomass Increment (Mg/ha/yr) Source/Comment Dipterocarp Old growth Residual Pine Close Open Submarginal 0 10 11. 5 5. 8 3. 2 IPCC (1996) Mossy 1. 0 Expert’s judgment Mangrove 3. 0 Expert’s judgment Brushland 1. 0 Expert’s judgment Forest plantations < 25 years old 26 -30 years old 31 -40 years old Non-forest Trees Coconut Fruit trees Rubber 4 3 2 4 IPCC (1996) Half of closed pine forest Expert’s judgment Expert’s judgment

Main sources of key activity data for the LUCF sector GHG Inventory Source of

Main sources of key activity data for the LUCF sector GHG Inventory Source of data 1990 Inventory (US countries Studies program) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature 1990 Inventory (ALGAS) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/Carbon stocks/change: Expert’s judgment; literature 1994 Inventory (1999 Philippines’ National Communication) Land area: FMB statistics Biomass/carbon stocks/change: Philippine data from Lasco and Pulhin (2000 a)

4 Research Efforts to Improve GHG Inventory ® LUCF research intensified in the last

4 Research Efforts to Improve GHG Inventory ® LUCF research intensified in the last few years ® Through Environmental Forestry Programme

189 (48%) Total C density= 393 t/ha 2. 3 (0. 6%) 1. 2 (0.

189 (48%) Total C density= 393 t/ha 2. 3 (0. 6%) 1. 2 (0. 3%) 4. 8 (1. 2%) Roots = 4. 3 (1. 1%) SOC= 191 (49%) Fig. 1 Carbon density (t/ha) of natural forests in Leyte, Philippines

Table 6 Comparison of results between the 1994 inventory and latest inventory Source Mtons

Table 6 Comparison of results between the 1994 inventory and latest inventory Source Mtons CO 2 or CO 2 equivalent 1994 Inventory (Philippine NC, 1999) -111 1997 -98 Inventory (Lasco 2001) Harvests 42 31 On site and off site burning 36 25 Decay 33 23 <1 (0. 126) -142 Biomass growth Net Absorption -222

FAO FRA in the Philippines ® Objective: to develop capacities of forest institutions to

FAO FRA in the Philippines ® Objective: to develop capacities of forest institutions to design, plan, implement forest inventory projects and manage information ® Using systematic inventory sampling design ® 82 1 x 1 km field observation sites (FOS) ® Eventually: 395 FOS nationwide ® four 20 x 250 m plots per FOS ® Bio-physical and socio-economic variables will be collected ® Tree diameter, height; biodiversity; soil samples

Potential Synergy with GHG Inventory ® FRA could provide key activity data: area of

Potential Synergy with GHG Inventory ® FRA could provide key activity data: area of forest types ® With minimal cost: above-ground and below ground carbon can be measured

STEP 1 FRA data A Area of Forest/Biomass Stocks (Mha) B C D E

STEP 1 FRA data A Area of Forest/Biomass Stocks (Mha) B C D E Annual Growth Rate (t dm/ha/yr) Annual Biomass Increment [x 1 yr] (Mt dm) Carbon Fraction of Dry Matter Total Carbon Uptake Increment (kt C) Forest Dipterocarp C = A x B E = C x D x 1000 Old Growth 0. 805 2. 10 1. 69 0. 50 845 Residual 2. 730 6. 50 17. 75 0. 45 7, 932 Pine 0. 228 5. 80 1. 32 0. 45 591 Submarginal 0. 475 3. 20 1. 52 0. 45 679 Mossy 1. 040 1. 04 0. 45 465 Mangrove 0. 112 3. 00 0. 34 0. 45 150 Tree Plantation 0. 518 12. 00 6. 22 0. 43 2, 680 Upland farms 14. 120 3. 00 42. 36 0. 45 19, 062 Brushland 2. 232 3. 20 7. 14 0. 45 3, 214 Grassland 2. 447 0. 00 0. 4 0 SUBTOTAL 35, 619

FRA: Potential CDM Application ® The Philippines has received proposals for LUCF projects ®

FRA: Potential CDM Application ® The Philippines has received proposals for LUCF projects ® FRA could provide data on: ® Suitable areas ® Potential carbon benefits

An Example: Mitigation Potential OGF Dipterocarp forests will be protected for biodiversity ® Rehabilitate

An Example: Mitigation Potential OGF Dipterocarp forests will be protected for biodiversity ® Rehabilitate open grassland areas and degraded brushland areas by reforestation/afforestation and natural regeneration ® Main determinant for additional areas under mitigation is the demand for wood products ® High Scenario ® correspond on 25 -year Master Plan ® aggressive tree planting program (100 -150, 000 ha/yr) Low Scenario ® 50% of high scenario

Concluding Remarks ® Large uncertainty remains on LUCF GHG inventory ® Much progress has

Concluding Remarks ® Large uncertainty remains on LUCF GHG inventory ® Much progress has been done in the last few years but much remains to be done ® The FAO FRA presents a great opportunity to improve GHG inventory dramatically ® a nationwide systematic sampling design ® Carbon measurements can be incorporated ® Results may also be useful for CDM

2002 -? ? ? FAO FRA 1997: Default values 1998 -1999: Small plots 2000

2002 -? ? ? FAO FRA 1997: Default values 1998 -1999: Small plots 2000 -2002: Systematic plots

“People always talk about the weather, but nobody actually does anything about it. ”

“People always talk about the weather, but nobody actually does anything about it. ” Mark Twain Thank you!!!