Human Appropriation of NPP HANPP An accounting framwork

Human Appropriation of NPP (HANPP) An accounting framwork for analysing land use processes in the Earth system Karlheinz Erb Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna in collaboration with: H. Haberl, V. Gaube, S. Gingrich, C. Plutzar, F. Krausmann, W. Lucht, A. Bondeau, et al. GEOSS support for IPCC assessments Geneva, Feb. 3, 2011 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 1

Overview • Background: the integrated land system & the current mainstream state-of-the-art in LULC science • The framework „Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production“: conceptual background & method • Results: Global HANPP 2000 • Examples: global production-consumption link, global bioenergy potentials • Conclusions: data requirements, gaps, challenges and opportunites Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 2

State-of-the-art of LU science From current mainstram land-use research. . . +. . . towards an integrated understanding of land use – – Classification systems creating nominal-scale data Focus on land cover (biophysical structures, ecological systems) Focus on forest / non-forest dynamics Strategy: increasing spatial resolution + + Focus on society-nature interactions Broad range of land uses Continuous (rational) scales Explicitly addressing a wide range of spatial scales Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 3

Bridging disciplinary boundaries: the integrated land system Outputs - Benefits Ecosystems Society Inputs - Investments Steffen et al. Science 1998 Matthews et al. 2000 management Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 4

HANPP – the ‚human appropriation of net primary production‘ Potential NPP Outputs - Benefits d. NPPLC Actual NPP Change induced through land use managed ecosystem Ecosystems natural ecosystem Society HANPP Inputs - Investments NPPh NPP remaining after harvest Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 5

Data integration NPP 0: LPJ-DGVM NPPact Non-used areas Irrigation Degradation NPPh Erb et al. , J of Land Use Science, 2007 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 6

Result: Global HANPP 2000 NPPLC%: Productivity changes use activities due. Land to land coversions << 10% >> Biomass consumption HANPP%: Aggregated effect of land use and harvest << 24% >> Source: Haberl et al PNAS 2007 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburget | February 2010 | 7 Krausmann al. , 10, 2008

Summary of results HANPP 2000 • Global HANPP amounts to 24% of NPP 0 (aboveground 30%) • Agriculture is the most important driver: – Cropping and grazing contribute 3/4 of global HANPP. – Feeding of livestock consumes 2/3 of the total amount of biomass used by humanity • Considerable regional variation of HANPP, mainly depending on – Consumption level (per capita HANPP in industrialized countries is about twice that of developing countries) – Population density – Technology: yields Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 8

HANPP data integration: ‚old‘ and ‚new‘ challenges Area Ecosystems Socioeconomic Systems Land cover Land use e. g. Modis GLC 2000 Globcover e. g. Census statistics: CONSISTENCY agriculture, forestry, grazing, settlements e. g. national economic data (SNA) ! CONSISTENCY ! Flows Ecosystem flows Inputs - Outputs DGVMs: GPP, NPP, Respiration, water, nutrients (Census) Statistics: agriculture, forestry, grazing CONSISTENCY Socioeconomic models Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 9

The HANPP framework: Data integration • Consistency – extents and flows: yields [=flow per area and year] – Prioritizing: correspondence of (national) land use census statistics and the (national) spatial extent more important than the accuracy of spatial information. But: how to deal with flawed census data? • Comprehensiveness – all ‘relevant’ land use types, inclusive “non-land-use” areas: – 100% of each gridcell Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 10

Applications Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 11

Example I Linking ecosystem impacts and socio-economic drivers HANPP e. HANPP consumption Source: Erb et al, EE 2009 a, Erb et al. , 2009 b Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 12

Example I Linking ecosystem impacts and socio-economic drivers Source: Erb et al, EE 2009 Difference of „production“ and „consumption“ of „embodied HANPP“ Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 13

Example I: Conclusions • A considerable flow: international “transfer” = 1. 7 Pg. C/yr in 2000 [global deforestation: ~1. 5 Pg. C/yr], increasing • Large, densely populated countries, which do not yet participate, will soon do so (e. g. China, India) • Drivers AND consequences of land use are global. No simple causal chains between drivers and associated impacts • Sustainability challenge: – High degree of international interdependence (vulnerability, resilience) – high risk of shifting the environmental burdens to distant locations and withdrawing it from environmental legislation – markets will not minimize burdens, as many ecosystems services have no price – need for global monitoring and management of biomass demand & supply Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 14

Example II Global bioenergy potentials Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 15

A scoping study: Explore the scale and option space on basis of HANPP analyses Systematic combination of existing (e. g. FAO) assumptions and 2 – 4 modulations on developments until 2050 of: • diets (4) • livestock efficiency (2) • agricultural yields (4) • cropland expansion (2) 64 combinations (scenarios) Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 16

Results: Feasibility Analysis: 43 of 64 scenarios “feasible” Not feasible Probably feasible Feasible Highly feasible For „feasible“ scenarios: bioenergy potential 1) on „free“ cropland 2) on high-quality grazing land 3) crop residues Source: Erb et al. , 2009 c Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 17

Results Primary energy supply Energy crop area [km²] (2. 1 – (6. 3) – 10. 9 mio. km²) Energy crop yield [g. C/m²/yr] Histogramm: feasible scenarios Source: Erb et al. , forthcoming Haberl et al. , 2010, COSUST Haberl et al. , 2011, Biomass & Bioenergy Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 18

Example II: Conclusions • Feeding a growing world population is – in principle - possible with ecologically sound agricultural production. Dietary levels will be most important. • Energy crop potentials – ‚conventional wisdom‘ needs to be reconsidered: Sustainability constraints are decisive: – Conservation / biodiversity – Subsistence agriculture, food security, etc. – GHG balance • Climate change impacts are poorly understood but could be strong • Bioenergy and globalization: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan Africa and Latin America: Caution – problem shifting! • ‚Cascade utilization‘ – focus on recycling, re-use and efficiency improvement of biomass flow-chains Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 19

Conclusions: HANPP studies illustrate • Link land use – land cover is complex: no easy look-up table. • Spatial seggregation between appropriation and consumption: Issues of scale, governance: drivers as well as consequences of land use are global. Important for the construction of causal chains • Future biomass demand-supply: Options/potentials for sustainable biomass utilization are limited – requires integrated perspectives Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 20

Data challenges. . . • Land-use assessments require land-cover and additional (‚socio-economic‘) information • Many socio-economic drivers, mechanisms, processes of LU (change) and their impacts are not (yet) well documented. Basic research (still) required. List of EHV not ready yet. – Links to Ma. B (UNESCO), LTER-LTSER • The spatial and temporal scales of natural and socioeconomic processes are different – Increasing spatial resolution is only a partial solution: the gain in detail allows to better describe LC, but contextual information is required to assess LU; social systems are not organized in grids • Move beyond the S-o-A in LU-LC data: consistency and comprehensiveness abandon “hybrid”, ambiguous legends complement “dominance” classes or “discrete” classification schemes with continuous parameters. Gradients are equally important, for LC and LU move beyond “agriculture”, “deforestation”, and “urban” land use land management is key Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 21

. . . and opportunities Data gaps/deficits are ubiquitous: • missing socio-economic data • flawed, incomplete census data. . . and RS can contribute – forestry (used vs. unused forests, forest degradation) – grazing (intensity, spatial pattern of grazing, biomass harvest through grazing; effects of grazing) – cropland fallow (where, frequency) – rural infrastructure – soil/vegetation degradation (where? how much land? how intensive? ) – ( )NPP, ( )Biomass stocks yield the mutual benefits of combining RS data and “ground data” Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 22

The End Thank you for your attention! Further information/maps/data: http: //www. uni-klu. ac. at/socec/ Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 23 ERC Start Grant 263522 LUISE

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Explore the scale and option space: a NPP perspective NPP 0 Solid consistent empirical databases for 2000 • NPPact Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10 x 10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci. 2, 191 -224 • Harvest National biomass balances : Production and consumption of biomass: Feed balances, processing losses, trade, incl. trends 1960 -2000. Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ. 65, 471 -487. • HANPP: Spatially explicit integration of NPP flows (LPJ-DGVM) and anthropogenic biomass flows (5 min, 10 x 10 km). Haberl et al. , 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 1294212947. Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 25

Grazing • livestock grazing is the largest fraction of the global biomass harvest (32%), a major driver of the human transformation of terrestrial ecosystems • Statistics comprise only market feed – no information on grazed biomass available. “Grazing Gap” must be modelled as difference between demand & market feed supply • very loose relation of land use and land cover (occurs in almost all ecosystems (hampers application of remote sensing techniques) • Census statistics are of limited Grazing Gap practicability, inconsistent, heterogenous definitions (e. g. artificial grasslands vs. natural grasslands) Source: Krausmann et al. Ecological Economics 2008 Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 26

Data Gap: grazing land ‚Result‘ Remaining area = Grazing land Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 27

Estimates on global grazing lands Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 28

Grazing land Russ Fed. India Egypt Norway Finnland China Brazil Mexico Yemen Saudi Arabia Western Sahara Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 29

consequences of land use: Biodiversity Species richness is well correlated with NPPt – indirect support for HANPP/biodiversity hypothesis = 0. 708 Case study 1: Correlation between NPPt and autotroph species richness (5 taxa) on 38 plots sized 600 x 600 m, East Austria Case study 2: Correlation between NPPt and breeding bird richness in Austria, 328 randomly chosen 1 x 1 km squares. Case study 3: Correlation between NPPt and vertebrate richness in the Americas, 10, 000 randomly chosen 5 min gridcells Haberl et al. , 2004, Agric. , Ecosyst. & Envir. 102, p 213 ff Haberl et al. , 2005. Agric. , Ecosyst. & Envir. 110, p 119 ff Haberl et al. , forthcoming Karlheinz Erb | The HANPP framework | Hamburg | February 10, 2010 | 30

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