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Delphi method The 'Delphi method' ( ) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. Norman Dalkey, Olaf Helmer (1963) An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - History 1 The name Delphi derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult. The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - History The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. JVTE v 15 n 2: The Modified Delphi Technique - A Rotational Modification, Journal of Vocational and Technical Education, Volume 15 Number 2, Spring 1999, web: [ http: //scholar. lib. vt. edu/ejournals/JVTE/v 15 n 2 /custer. html VT-edu-JVTE-v 15 n 2]: of Delphi Technique developed by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - History 1 To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950 -1960 s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher(1998): Predicting the Future, (Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998) https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Key characteristics 1 The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus on the issues at hand separate Delphi from other methodologies: https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Regular feedback Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to the group leader; the Delphi method prevents it. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Role of the facilitator The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Use in forecasting 1 First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology forecasting https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Use in forecasting For example, in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder (1977), the Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with inaccuracy of 3– 4% compared with actual sales 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Use in forecasting 1 The governments of Latin America and the Caribbean have successfully used the Delphi method as an open-ended public -private sector approach to identify the most urgent challenges for their regional ICT-for-development e. LAC Action Plans. [http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1016/j. techfore. 2009. 01. 001 Foresight tools for participative policy-making in intergovernmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the e. LAC Policy Priorities Delphi], Martin Hilbert, Ian Miles and Julia Othmer (2009), Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 15(2), 880 -896; free access to the study through here: martinhilbert. net/Hilbert_etal. e. LACdelphi. pdf As a result, governments have widely acknowledged the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi, especially in a field of rapid change, such as technology policies. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Use in policy-making In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the authors list the following lessons learned include (1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Online Delphi systems 1 A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to be conducted in real-time. For instance, the Tech. Cast Project uses a panel of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Another example is the Horizon Project, where educational futurists collaborate online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to look out for in education for the next few years. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Variations 1 Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future by iteration. Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi, Murray Turoff, [http: //is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/ch 3 b 1. pdf The Design of a Policy Delphi], Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2, 2, 1970. is instead a decision support method aiming at structuring and discussing the diverse views of the preferred future. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Variations In Europe, more recent web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique for interactive decision-making and edemocracy. . An example of e-democracy application is DEMOS (Delphi Mediation Online System), whose prototype was presented at the 3 rd Worldwide Forum on Electronic Democracy, in 2002. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Discussion 1 Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself. It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Discussion 1 Another particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Discussion Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Discussion 1 Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse. The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff, Editors © 2002, Murray Turoff and Harold Linstone, TOC III. B. 3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date, IRENE ANNE JILLSON http: //is. njit. edu/pubs/delphibook/ch 3 b 3. html https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Delphi method - Conspiracy theory Searcy is quoted as saying that liberal groups will attempt to enact Agenda 21 through using the Delphi method as form of mind control: They do that by a process known as the Delphi technique 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

The Wisdom of Crowds - Delphi methods The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of independent experts 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Futures techniques - Delphi method The Delphi method is a very popular technique used in Futures Studies. It was developed by Gordon and Olaf Helmer|Helmer in 1953 at RAND. It can be defined as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Futures techniques - Delphi method 1 Studies employing Delphi method tend to be difficult to perform. The application of the Delphi method requires a great deal of attention to the selection of participating experts and the questionnaires have to be scrupulously prepared and tested in advance. The initial preparation and follow -up rounds of questioning of the panelists tends to be time consuming. https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

Futures techniques - Delphi method Delphi’s primary strength is its ability to explore, tranquilly and objectively, issues that require judgement. Unlike panel sessions, the iterative Delphi method allows the forecasting and assessment to be done without the effect of strong personalities or reputations influencing other panelists and also overcomes the difficulty of getting all experts together in a single time and place. 1 https: //store. theartofservice. com/the-delphi-method-toolkit. html

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