Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe Climate Change EMS

Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe Climate Change EMS, 09/09/2019 Semjon Schimanke et al.

Time 2017 Climate Change line of service 2018 and 2019 system 2020 details 2021 UERRA system in near real time (11 km/5. 5 km resolution) CERRA system in operational mode (5. 5 km resolution) Development of the CERRA system EDA system (10 members at 11 km resolution) • • • 11 km (565 x 565 grid points), 65 levels Surface downscaling analysis 5. 5 km (MESCAN-SURFEX) Start in 1961 and operational since 2/2018 • • 5. 5 km (1069 x 1069 grid points), 106 levels Surface analysis at 5. 5 km Plus 10 ensemble members at 11 km Will start in the early 1980 s

Climate Change The RRA systems and available data

The Climate Change pre-operational FP 7 project • UERRA: Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re. Analysis • 12 European partners • Three different RRA plus ensembles • SMHI’s UERRA data as well as the MESCAN-SURFEX data were produced for 1961 -2015 and they are available through Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). www. uerra. eu

Overview Climate Change UERRA systems • UERRA – HARMONIE system – HARMONIE cycle 38 h 1, ALADIN physics – ERA 40/ERA-interim as lateral boundary – Assimilation of conventional observations, 3 D-VAR – 4 cycles per day, forecast lengths 6 h and 30 h – 11 km resolution (565 x 565) and 65 vertical levels • MESCAN-SURFEX system – Optimal interpolation (OI) – 5. 5 km resolution

Available Climate Change data • Modell domain covers entire Europe • Period 1961 – May 2019 with monthly updates, hourly data • 31 surface parameters, 9 parameters on pressure levels, 7 parameters on height levels, 4 parameters on model levels 2 parameters on soil levels • Additional output from MESCANSURFEX (surface and soil) The data is available via Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). Model domain illustrated with model topography and land-sea mask

Climate Change Data quality

Verification Climate Change Standard deviation Bias • • • UERRA ERA-interim Verification tools are part of the quality control during the production Smaller bias and std than ERA-interim, e. g. T 2 m, wind speed, precipitation Some parameters not better than ERAinterim, e. g. RH 2 m

DJF Climate Change wind ERA 5 speed in ERA 5 and UERRA-HARMONIE

DJF Climate Change windspeed in ERA 5 and UERRA • Differences are general small • Differences related to topography/coastline • General weaker winds over northern Africa and the Norwegian/Barents Sea

Quality of wind speed Climate Change Comparison of wind speed at 24 Swedish coastal stations UERRA ERA 5 ERA-int Mean absolute error 0. 55 0. 84 Correlation 0. 85 0. 79 RMSE 1. 83 1. 97 2. 36 Based on the period 2000 -2015. Hourly data for UERRA and ERA 5, 6 hourly for ERA-interim

S u m m e r Climate Change d a y s ( T m a x > 2 5 C ) c o m p a r e d t o E - O B S

Climate Change Good to know…

Good Kg/m 2 Climate Change The first forecast hours might be affected by spin-up issues. This is depending on the parameter. to know…

Homogeneity Climate Change 100 m wind speed 500 h. Pa geopotential Yearly averages of the standard deviation and mean of the forecast difference fc 30 -fc 06 during winter (DJF). Left: 100 m wind speed. Right: 500 h. Pa geopotential. Curtesy Adam von Kraemer. Investigations of the forecast skill (differences between fc 30 and fc 6): • Forecast skill effects accuracy of the first guess and has herewith consequences on the data quality • Increase of quality with the switch to ERA-interim and increasing numbers of observations (upper air)

You Climate Change want to know more? • Homepage https: //climate. copernicus. eu/regional-reanalysis-europe • CDS, search for regional reanalysis https: //cds. climate. copernicus. eu • Copernicus-support@ecmwf. int • Poster P 82, Wednesday-Friday, attendence time Friday 10: 30 -11: 30 (OSA 3. 4 The Copernicus Climate Change Service)

User Climate Change support • User guide • Git server with example scripts https: //git. smhi. se/C 3 S_322_Lot 1_user_examples • Training material https: //climate. copernicus. eu/us er-learning-services • Support by email Copernicus-support@ecmwf. int

Summary Climate Change • The service offers: – Based on the RRA from the FP 7 UERRA project, hourly data at 11 km and 5. 5 km resolution from 1961 to near real time for Europe – A comprehensive set of output parameters for the surface, the upper air, and the soil – User guidance and support • Data quality improves compared to global products