Climate Prediction Center Mission Operational prediction of climate

Climate Prediction Center

Mission -Operational prediction of climate variability -Monitoring and diagnostics of global climate variability -Development of monitoring and diagnostics data bases -Working with users for disaster mitigation and economic advantages Climate Prediction Center

Climate Patterns Affecting Atlantic Hurricane Seasons Climate Prediction Center

Climate Prediction Center

Climate Prediction Center

Mission: Operationally predict, monitor, and assess short-term climate variability, from below the sea surface to the land, lower atmosphere, and stratosphere Work with users to mitigate losses and realize gains through increased understanding and prediction of the global climate system, emphasizing enhanced risks of extreme events Employ and/or advance research to improve the understanding and predictability of short-term climate variations Climate Prediction Center

Ø Weather Ø Short-term events such as snowstorms, tornadoes, etc. Ø Forecasts have skill days in advance. Ø Forecasts typically are deterministic. Ø Climate Ø Climatology: Average weather and range of possibilities over the course of many (often 30) years. Ø Climate Events: Average of weather events over a season or multiple seasons, in the context of climatology. Most commonly, a persistent series or prolonged episode of anomalous weather, often driven or influenced by one or more identifiable global-scale climate phenomena. Ø Forecasts typically are probabilistic, in terms of monthly/seasonal averages and enhanced/reduced risks of extreme events (hurricanes, heat waves, etc. ). Climate Prediction Center

Breakthroughs Made in Climate Forecasts Since 1997 ØWe have developed skill in forecasting certain aspects of climate (climate events) Ømajor events such as El Niño / La Niña and their implications Øsmaller events with some variability (e. g. , hurricanes, drought, heat waves, threats to life and property) Climate Prediction Center

• Examples of Impacts from Climate Events: • U. S. economic sensitivity to the 1997/98 El Niño ØNEGATIVE IMPACTS: ØProperty losses $2. 8 B • < ØAgricultural losses $700 M • < ØState and federal relief $500 M • < ØTourist industries $200 M • < ØLost sales in snow-related industries $100 M • < ØLosses in energy sector $4. 5 B • < ØTexas & Oklahoma drought $6 B • < ØPOSITIVE IMPACTS: ØIncreased sales of homes, goods $5. 5 B • < ØIncreased employment $500 M • < ØFewer transportation delays $200 M • < ØReduced snow removal costs $400 M • <

Climate Forecast Use -- 1997/98 El Nino ØSix month advanced warning resulted in $0. 5 billion to $1. 0 billion savings in California ØFlood insurance sales increased in California and the Southeast ØDrought impacts anticipated in Hawaii and other U. S. Pacific Islands