NOAANCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza

NOAA/NCEP African Desk Product Surfing Presented by Hamza Kabelwa Prepared by Richard H. Grumm Contributions by Vadlamani Kumar NCEP Version 2. 0

Overview • NCEP African Desk website – Key entry point: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ – Products forecasters • http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa. sh tml Click to edit Master subtitle style • Surfs up tour of products and locations

NCEP African Desk Entry Point http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) • Part of USAID/Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) • African Desk Training/Cirriculum • Forecast Products and outlooks Click to edit Master subtitle style • Key contacts • Wassila Thiaw • Vadlamani Kumar • Enter • Via the MAP • Our Africa under Special Products

Test Drive Site for Products • Try main entry point • http: //www. cpc. ncep. n oaa. gov/products/afric • Examine text products an_desk/cpc_intl/ bulletin • http: //www. cpc. ncep. n Click to edit Master subtitle style oaa. gov/products/afric • Examine use of maps an_desk/cpc_intl/afric and data+a/africa. shtml

Main Forecaster Real-time data http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa. shtml • Resources forecaster • Expert Assessments • Regional NWP Click to edit Master subtitle style • Africa Wide NWP • Observations – Analysis – Precipitation • Satellite Data – Real-time and precipitatoin estimates

Links • International Jump off point: – http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/ • Main Forecast entry point – http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/africa Click to edit Master subtitle style n_desk/cpc_intl/africa. shtml • East Africa tools: – http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/africa n_desk/cpc_intl/eafrica. shtml

Weakness and Strength • IHigher resolution than the EFS 15 or 27 vs 75 km Typically more skill than our EFS Best at shorter forecast ranges Click to edit Master subtitle style It is an ensemble member in and of itself Has meteorological details Put details often introduce errors!

Weakness and Strength • IEFS and global models are too course for features which can really impact the local and regional weather Smooth out terrain features Smooth out finer scale features Click to edit Master subtitle style Flooding and severe weather events are typically meso-b and meso-g features Finer resolution models and Local Area Models play a valuable role in filling the gaps Diagnosis of stability can help in many cases

Weakness and Strength • I Click to edit Master subtitle style

Review • NCEP African Desk website – Main jump off/entry point: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ – Products forecasters • http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/africa. sh tml Click to edit Master subtitle style • A brief tour of the site was conducted