Climate Prediction Center Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast

Climate Prediction Center Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners Wayne Higgins and Mike Halpert NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center March 4, 2008 1

Outline § § Message Role in NOAA Climate Services Operational Activities Partnerships – “White Paper” § Climate Test Bed 2 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Message § Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success: – To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change – To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users § CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners: – Climate Forecast Product Teams – Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R 2 O and O 2 R Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs. 3 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services… To Serve Diverse Customer Base Observe e. g. , Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies… -Process -Assimilate -Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices CPC Respond & Feedback NCEP IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion NCEP provides operational support. CPC delivers operational climate forecast products and services. CPO provides support for research and transition activities to accelerate improvements.

CPC Role in NOAA Climate Services “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. ” § Focus: climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) that serve a diverse customer base § Official Products for the Nation § Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs § Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite of Products 5 2007/08 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004) at NCEP • Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e. g. consolidation tool). (0. 5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal) 6 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Operational Activities § Monitoring Products § Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U. S. Seasonal Temp. ) § Assessment Products How do we accelerate improvements in the above? 7 § Outreach and Feedback § Partnerships § Applied Research § Transition Activities (R 2 O; O 2 R) 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008 4

Climate Monitoring Products – Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO, . . . ) – Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) – Storm Tracks and Blocking – Monsoons – Oceanic Conditions (global) – Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) – Drought (US, North America; NIDIS) Note: 8 There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to user community requests. 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Outlook Products § Tropical Pacific SSTs § Seasonal and Monthly Outlooks for Precipitation & Temperature (3 rd Thu. of the month; Monthly update) § Seasonal Drought Outlook (1 st and 3 rd Thu. of the month) § Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug. ) § 6 -10 Day (week-1) and 8 -14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily 3: 00 pm) § Day 3 -14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Note: 9 We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in particular – more climate-weather type products, more variables. What are your needs? 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Assessment Products § § § Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD) Weekly ENSO / MJO updates (. ppt, PDF versions available on web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web) § Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin) § Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, and Global Tropics) – Day 3 -14 – Weather / Climate Connection Note: 10 These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How should we expand improve the current suite of products to do this? 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Partnerships § Collaborative partnerships are a key element of CPCs future success: – to gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change – to accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – to enhance the value of NOAA’s climate services § The partnership “landscape” is complex. – NOAA – Federal Labs and Programs – Academia – Federal Mission Agencies – Emergency Managers and Planners – Federal State and Local Governments – International – Industry – Media § § Partners include both the providers and users of climate information. Regional partnerships are increasingly important. 11 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction at the UMD Research Park (M-Square) § 268, 762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research & satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory § 40 spaces for visiting scientists 12 Construction Schedule Date Construction. Start May 9, 2007 Move Start Dec 2008 Move Complete Summer 2009 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

CPC/CTB “White Paper” Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners Table of Contents 13 Executive Summary 1. 0 Background and Purpose 2. 0 Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support 3. 0 Implementation Strategy 4. 0 Future Priorities 5. 0 Budget 2 3 4 7 10 10 APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans APPENDIX C. Climate Products List APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges APPENDIX F. Acronyms APPENDIX G. Contact Information 11 12 14 17 18 21 22 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

CPC-RISA Program RISA Contacts Areas of Collaboration Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC) Muthuvel Chelliah (CPC) Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim O’Brien Downscaling CPC Outlooks, Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCM, CFS hindcasts. Western Water Assessment (WWA) Michelle L’Heureux (CPC) Andrea Ray Intraseasonal forecasts and applications; Decision support related to drought mitigation and response; user feedback to enhance CPC products. Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Ed O’Lenic (CPC) Holly Hartmann Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and make decisions based upon CPC outlooks. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) Jon Gottschalck (CPC) Sarah Fleisher Trainor Development and improved utilization of storminess related products, aid Alaska’s drought / fire related challenges through better application of CPC official outlooks and the use of new precipitation databases. Pacific Climate Information System (Pa. CIS) Luke He (CPC) Eileen Shea, Jim Weyman Pacific Rainfall Atlas; Climate Teleconferences and User Training, Research for Improving Climate Service and Forecasts for the Pacific region. California Application Program (CAP) Kingtse Mo (CPC) Dan Cayan, John Roads Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil moisture relationships from NLDAS. University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) Doug Le. Comte (CPC) Dennis Lettenmaier Enhancements to U. W. surface water monitor, Improved tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook. Goal: to meet RISA-customer needs for climate forecast products Activities: exchanges via CPC & RISA focal points; workplans tailored to customer needs.

Sample CPC-RISA Workplan: RISA: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) CPC/CTB Contact: Jon Gottschalck RISA Contacts: Sarah Fleisher Trainor (Outreach Coordinator, ACCAP) Area of Collaboration: • Development and improved use of storminess products • Aid Alaska’s drought and fire related challenges through better application of CPC official outlooks and new precipitation databases Status: • Prioritized stakeholder feedback from July 2007 storminess related teleconference • Ongoing research towards improved storminess guidance at extended ranges (week 2 – seasonal) • Strategy being finalized to aid Alaska drought / fire related challenges SEE POSTERS 15 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Conversion of CPC Monitoring and Forecast Products to GIS Format Viviane Silva Lloyd Thomas, Mike Halpert and Wayne Higgins BEFORE AFTER Interoperability & Zoom In The CPC conversion to GIS started at CPAS 2 years ago!

Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on NOAA RISA Program input) General Comments: § Output and products geared to the regional level (most recurrent theme). § Access to all forecast elements, rather than just focusing on temperature and precipitation at the surface, including lower troposphere, planetary boundary layer properties, cloud cover information, daily and hourly temperature, time series, and wind speed and direction. § Model and forecast verification data. § Tropical cyclone and tropical storm predictions (from a few weeks to seasonal time scales). § Physical basis for / elucidation of / existence of / role of / properties of / all the “oscillations”: ENSO, PDO, NPO, AMO, SOI, AO, NAO, MJO § More detailed and sustained interaction, formal and informal, through workshops, seminars, and meetings. 17 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on input from NOAA RISA Program) Topical Area 18 Variables Hydrology Seasonal evolution of snowpack; water budget; min T; groundwater recharge; evapotranspiration budgets; mountain recharge; orographic enhancement; cloud microphysics; aerosol interactions; rain / snow levels Coastal issues Inundation; sea level rise; climate variability / change issues in low-lying areas; sea breezes; upwelling and fisheries and coastal ecosystems Air Quality Inversions (individual & population; trends); Boundary layer characteristics (stability properties; trends; transport winds; pollution sources, sinks, trajectories; smoke dispersion and trajectories) Drought Soil moisture budget; evapotranspiration; causes of droughts; feedback mechanisms; tracking mechanisms; NIDIS / DEWS atmospheric effects on NDVI; multi-scale descriptors; SPI Energy Factors affecting demand (temperature, ventilation, cloudiness); sea breezes; hydropower; wind power forecasts and trends; solar energy forecasts and trends Ecological Health Fire and climate; downslope wind events (Santa Ana, Sundowner, etc); relationships to large scale; insects; pests, Pathogens; aquatic conditions; wildlife survival conditions; wildlife food supply; managed agriculture 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Framework for Developing Climate Products with Partners (“White Paper”) • A focused Climate Forecast Tool Development effort that builds on the success of the CTB and includes opportunities to develop new and improved tools; and • Climate Forecast Product Teams that builds on the success of the CPC-RISA program to work with partners to leverage the improved tools and accelerate the development and delivery of user-demanded climate forecast products. 19 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Forecast Tool Development Efforts to consolidate climate model forecasts have improved CPC’s official outlooks. Future tool development efforts will build on CPC’s consolidation: - use new models with independent skill; - provide objective verification of all models and official forecasts Develop guidelines to add a new model to CPC’s consolidation: - reproducibility on NCEP computer; - hindcast runs; - sufficient ensemble members and leads; key output variables; - available in real-time for dissemination. CTB (www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/ctb) competitive grants program provides resources 20 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Climate Forecast Product Teams CPC wants to organize two teams that will serve as the functional core of the CPC strategy to accelerate development of climate products in collaboration with partners. • The “Climate Products Outreach Team” (CPOT) • The “Climate Products Implementation Team” (CPIT) CPOT encourages and engages partnerships. The CPOT is partially mobilized (CPC-RISA program). CPIT focuses on implementation. While the two teams are charged to identify or implement climate forecast products, respectively, they also have complementary functions. A lot has been accomplished but additional resources are required. 21 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Message § Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success: – To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change – To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users § CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners: – Climate Forecast Product Teams – Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R 2 O and O 2 R Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs. 22 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved 23 NOAA climate forecast products and services. 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed § The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations – Bridge between research & operations – Embraces the R 2 O and O 2 R paradigms § The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities – CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) – Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) – Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) § Competitive Grants Program § CTB-COLA Seminar Series § CPC-RISA Program § Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY 09) 24 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the Research to Operations (R 2 O) & Operations to Research (O 2 R) paradigm • Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process • Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise (IMME and NMME strategy) 25 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Challenges for CTB § CTB infrastructure – Computing and human support for accelerating R 2 O – O 2 R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training – to accelerate R 2 O § Multi-Model Ensembles – National Strategy Ø Computer resources for generating hindcasts – Concept of Operations Ø Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models & forecast data 26 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008

Summary § CFS and CTB advancing nicely § NCEP’s role in R 2 O implies greater support for O 2 R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure. ) § New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate these. 27 6 th CPAS Workshop Mar 4 -7, 2008