Climate System Climate Prediction and Climate Change Dr

Climate System, Climate Prediction and Climate Change Dr. SONG Yan Dept. of Science and Technology Training Centre of China Meteorological Administration 1

Ⅲ Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change 2

Outline Definitions of key terms Individual Extreme events caused by climate change Causes for climate change Adaptation and Mitigation Differences, similarities between adaptation and mitigation Problems and gaps between China and Developed Countries 3

Definitions of key terms • Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (可对比的时间时期）. • Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli （刺激）or their effects, which moderates (缓和） harm or exploits（利用） beneficial opportunities. • Vulnerability （脆弱性）is the degree to which a system is sus'ceptible to （对…敏感）, and unable to cope with（应付）, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity（敏感性） and its adaptive （适应 的）capacity. 4

In the coming decades, climate change is expected to ex‘acerbate（使…加剧, 恶化） the risks of disasters, not only from more frequent and intense hazard events, but also through greater vulnerability to the existing hazards. More frequent and intense storms and floods and long-lasting droughts can erode （侵蚀）existing community coping(应付） ca'pacity to prepare, respond and rebuild after successive hazard events. The other adverse impacts of climate change, for example on public health, ecosystems, food security, migration （移民）will increase the vulnera’bility of communities to natural hazards of all types. This in turn (依次）may also exacerbate the struggle for access （获取）to, or control of, scarce （稀有的）resources and increase the likelihood （可能性）of migration or even conflict. 5

Any increase in disasters, whether large or small, will threaten development gains（硕果） and hinder（阻碍） the implementation （执行）of the Mi‘llennium （千年） Development Goals. Many of the countries that are already of humani'tarian（人道主义者） concern and which have populations （人口）that are highly vulnerable will face even greater risks because of the impacts of climate change. 6

Individual Extreme events caused by climate change 7

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Rainstorm in China Since 1950 s, summer floods around Yangtze river (1954、1969、 1975、1991、1993、 1994、1995、1996、 1998、2003) were caused by such rainstorms, and made a lot of economic loss for China. 9

A forest fire in America on 6 August, 2000 10

Influences of extreme weather and climate events are more severe! 11

Typhoon Rananim on August 2004 in China is the strongest one for the past 50 years death toll: more than 183 persons 中国(HDW) 2004年 8月17日— —今天亚洲各大新闻媒体都在 报道“云娜”台风造成的死亡 人数超过183。 “云娜”台风 是 50年来袭击中国最强的一次 台风。 (http: //www. hdweather. com/ typhoon/typhoon_318. htm) 12

Beijing Sand-dust storm in Spring, 2004 16

Beijing Strong Sandstorm in 2006 Falling dust 330, 000 tons only one night on April 16 -17! 2006年 4月16－18日，北方地区出现一次强沙尘暴天气过程。 北京 16－17日一夜总降尘量达 33万吨。 17

Time series of sand storms in north of China during 1954~2005 （根据周自江，2003重绘） Declining tendency in North of China in recent 50 years 18