Analysis of socioeconomic data collected from censuses United

Analysis of socioeconomic data collected from censuses United Nations Statistics Division UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Main types of socioeconomic characteristics from censuses q q Household and family characteristics Demographic and social characteristics § Age § Sex § Marital status § Disability Educational characteristics § Literacy § School attendance § Educational attainment Economic characteristics § Labour force status § Status in employment § Occupation § Industry § Participation in own-use production of goods Core topics from the Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Rev. 3 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Socioeconomic data from censuses q The definitions used for socioeconomic indicators can have a significant impact on results q Consistency in how the question is phrased and how respondents understand the terms is key for internal consistency of data q Close inspection of definitions used must accompany use of outside data sources for comparison of results UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

What can be done to check data quality? § § § Check the internal consistency of the data § Whether plausible when tabulated or cross-tabulated with other characteristics Compare with other sources -indirect comparison § Graph the derived indicators § Cohort analysis of certain indicators § Disaggregate by sex and age Compare with other sources- direct comparison § Post enumeration surveys, where people were reinterviewed and content of the census responses is verified § Matching records with other sources UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with other sources q q The possible sources of data for comparisons are: § Household Surveys, MICS, DHS, LFS, . . . § Registers a. Population registers, b. Vital registration systems, c. School enrollment data, d. Citizen identification systems, e. Social security/health systems Serious discrepancies between census and survey/administrative distributions for census topics are indicative of error in one or both sets of data - cause(s) should be investigated UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with other sources q Close investigation on the followings: § The definitions used for socioeconomic data can have a significant impact on results – make sure that definitions used are consistent or investigate how differences in definitions would affect n Consistency in how the question(s) is phrased - the terms used for the questions can be key factor in comparison with other sources n Consistency in reference time-investigate how the differences in reference time would affect the results of evaluation UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparisons with existing household surveys q The rationale for using existing household surveys to evaluate a census on a non-matching basis lies in the fact that n sample surveys are often less affected by nonsampling error than censuses due to the better operational control, qualified field staff with intensive tranning programme n therefore, survey data on population characteristics also measured by a census often are considered to be more accurate than the census results UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Household composition q Most censuses use the household as the unit of enumeration n A “household” is typically defined by people (s) making common provision of food or other essentials o A household may consist of one person who provides for these essentials on his own o Not all household members (or even no household members) need be related n A “family” consists of individuals who are related by blood, adoption or marriage o Must contain at least 2 individuals n In many countries, there may be multiple family units residing in one household UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Relationship to the reference person/head of household q q Households may contain different types of family and nonfamily relationships All individuals should be identified in relation to the reference person or head of household as follow: n Spouse, partner in consensual union, child, spouse of child, grandchild or great-grandchild, parent (or parent of spouse), other relative, domestic employee or other person not related to the head or reference person United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses and UN Data, Regional Workshop on. October Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Evaluation of Census Amman 19 – 23 2014 Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Household and family composition q Household and family composition can be examined from different points of view, for census purposes: Family nucleus a. A married couple without children b. A married couple with unmarried children c. A father with unmarried children d. A mother with unmarried children Couples living in consensual union may be regarded as constituting a family nucleus Types of household a. One person household b. Nuclear household-a single family nucleus c. Extended householdi. a single family nucleus and other persons related to the nucleus ii. two or more family nuclei with/without other persons iii. Two or more persons related to each other d. Composite householdi. a single nucleus and other persons , not related the nucleus ii. Two or more family nuclei, not related to each other with/without other persons e. Other UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Internal consistency q Distribution of household size n Accuracy of household size considering the number of persons enumerated in one page– such as 5, 10, … n There might be errors in combining the census forms belonging to same household UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Household size – comparison with other sources Data source: graph produced based on data from the United Nations Demographic Yearbook and DHS STATcompiler UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Average HH Size, Myanmar Percentage distribution of households by size, Myanmar 25 1 20 2 15 Average size 1983 census: 5. 2 1997 FRHS: 5. 0 2001 FRHS: 5. 2 2007 FRHS: 4. 9 3 4 10 5 6 5 Average HH size similar, but a significant difference in distribution by size 7+ 0 1983 Census 1997 FRHS 2001 FRHS 2007 FRHS UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Disability q Defines as persons who experience limitations in basic activity functions n n Walking Seeing Essential domains Hearing Cognition (remembering, concentrating, decision making, understanding language. . ) n n Self-care Additional domains Communication (talking, listening, understanding speech) UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Disability q Scale response n n No (no difficult at all) Yes, some difficulty Yes, a lot of difficulty Cannot do at all q Disability prevalence: includes those who have “a lot of difficulty” or “cannot do at all” for any of domains UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Challenges in measuring disability q Difficult to understand concept and definitions q Proxy respondents q Translation, taking into account cultural/psychosocial influences q Questionnaire design UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Example of Individual Questionnaire UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Example of Household questionnaire UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Distribution of People with Disabilities, South Africa, 2011 Census UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Marital status q Marital status is the personal status of each individual in relation to the marriage laws or customs of the country. The categories of marital status should at least include the following: n n n Single (never married) Married but separated-comprise both legally and de facto separated Widowed and not married Divorced and not married UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Internal consistency control Expected pattern • smooth declining with ages • females are getting married in younger ages than males • males are getting married slightly younger ages in rural areas compared to urban areas UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Internal consistency control 1994 Population and Housing Census of Tunisia Proportion of widowed men UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with survey data § Very similar patter between the census and DHS § Slight difference in the last age group UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Singulate Mean Age at First Marriage (SMAFM) q Technique for estimating the mean age at first marriage when actual dates of marriage are not available n Is a period measure (uses a synthetic cohort) q Very simple data requirements: n Total number of women by 5 -year age groups n Total number of ever-married women by 5 -year age groups UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

SMAFM calculation (1) PEMx: Proportion of ever-married women PEMult Source: Wachter, Ken, Essential Demographic Methods, Data from United Nations Demographic Yearbook UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

SMAFM calculation (2) Sx: proportion of remaining single at age United Nations 50 Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses and UN Data, Regional Workshop on. October Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Evaluation of Census Amman 19 – 23 2014 Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Education q Three core concepts; n Literacy – ability to read and write a short, simple statement n School attendance – current, regular attendance at an accredited educational institution or program o Distinguished from enrollment, which means that the student is officially registered at school, not necessarily that s/he actually goes to class n Educational attainment – highest grade completed within the most advanced level reached in the educational system UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Education q How to evaluate the quality of data: n Cohort analysis n Comparison of education indicators calculated from the census and other sources of data –household surveys, administrative registers n Plausibility in the distribution of data UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Consistency control q Education n Educational attainment- highest level completed o Consistency control with school attendance and literacy o Relation with age –minimum age for completing school n Usually it is calculated by taking minimum age for entering school plus number of years required for completing a school. Example: Minimum age for primary education is age 6 If primary education requires 8 years, minimum age for completing primary school would be age 13 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, § § Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

School attendance – Internal consistency 1000 School attendance, Female, Egypt, 2006 Census Thousands School attendance, Male, Egypt, 2006 Census 900 800 700 600 500 Expected pattern ? 400 300 200 100 0 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Total Attending UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach q Use the demographic concept of birth cohort to generate time series data for people who were born in the same year/period by their completed level of education and literacy q Analyze successive census data by cohorts - if they show the same or similar number/percentage for certain level of education while age increases q Assumptions: n n Population size changes with births and deaths only – no migration People do not continue education after reaching certain age - based on educational system in a country. UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach q Data requirement : Consecutive population censuses by age groups, sex and literacy status and completed level of education Literate Population, Morocco, Male q Example for two successive censuses conducted in 1994 and 2004 Age group 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 1994 Census 2004 Census 1, 001, 617 1319162 862, 136 1097725 606, 808 884574 498, 536 772151 436, 522 595152 354, 813 527018 192, 203 448700 134, 027 362123 99, 384 184222 74, 235 125762 40, 602 81536 27, 775 56054 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach Literate Population, Morocco, Male Age group 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 1994 Census 2004 Census 1, 001, 617 1319162 862, 136 1097725 606, 808 884574 498, 536 772151 436, 522 595152 354, 813 527018 192, 203 448700 134, 027 362123 99, 384 184222 74, 235 125762 40, 602 81536 27, 775 56054 Re- organization of data by birth cohorts Literate Population, Morocco, Male Age group 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 1994 Census 2004 Census Year of birth 1001617 1319162 1984 -89 862136 1097725 1979 -84 606808 884, 574 1974 -79 498536 772, 151 1969 -74 436522 595, 152 1964 -69 354813 527, 018 1959 -64 192203 448, 700 1954 -59 134027 362, 123 1949 -54 99384 184, 222 1944 -49 74235 125, 762 1939 -44 40602 81, 536 1934 -39 27775 56, 054 1929 -34 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach Impact of out-migration among literate population ? UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach Year of Age birth misreporting? 1974 -79 Impact of emigration? Expected pattern at older ages because of the effect of high mortality risk 1969 -74 1964 -69 1959 -64 1954 -59 1949 -54 1944 -49 1939 -44 1934 -39 1929 -34 1994 Census 2004 Census Male 1001617 884574 862136 772151 606808 595152 498536 527018 436522 448700 354813 362123 192203 184222 134027 125762 99384 81536 74235 56054 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017 Cohort survival ratio (2004/1994) 0. 88 0. 90 0. 98 1. 06 1. 03 1. 02 0. 96 0. 94 0. 82 0. 76

Cohort approach Educational attainment, Republic of Korea, 2000, 2005 and 2010 censuses UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Cohort approach Educational attainment, Republic of Korea, 2000, 2005 and 2010 censuses UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Gross attendance ratio : Gross attendance ratio at level of education h in the year t : Students at the level of education h in the year t : Population in age group a which officially corresponds to the level of education h in year t UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Net attendance rate : Net attendance rate at level of education h in the year t : Students of the population of age group a at level of education h in the year t : Population in age group a which officially corresponds to the level of education h in year t UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

2009 Census Report, Vietnam UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with other sources Ø Census results indicate slightly lower level than the DHS Ø Census results are highly consistent with the results of DHS UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Economic activity q q Activity status – a person’s relationship to economic activity during a short reference period (typically a week) n Employed – a person who worked a defined, minimum amount of time over the reference period (may be as little as an hour) n Unemployed – a person who did not work the minimum amount of time during the reference period but was willing and able to work and looking for a job n Inactive (out of labor force)– a person who did not work the minimum amount of time during the reference period and did not want to work/was not looking for work Both the employed and the unemployed are economically active! n Employed + unemployed = labor force UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Economic activity q Difficulties: n What does “work” mean? o Goods and services produced for the market o Goods produced for own-use (replacing need to buy on market) Ø In practice, this is quite difficult to measure, especially in areas with large agricultural or informal economies Ø Women’s home-based production in particular is often undercounted in surveys n What does “looking for a job” mean? o E. g. some persons may have registered at a government labor office months ago, but done nothing else. Are they looking for a job? UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Definition of Work q Defined as “any activity performed by persons of any sex and age to produce goods or to provide services for use by others or for own use q Five mutually exclusive forms of work n n n Own use production of work, production of goods and services for own final use Employment work, work performed in exchange for pay or profit Unpaid training work Volunteer work Other work activities United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses and Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA Evaluation UN of Regional Census Data, Amman 19 – 23 October 2014 and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Definition of Employment q Persons are all those above the specified age who during a short reference period of seven days or one week were engaged in any activity to produce goods and provide services for pay or profit United Nations Workshop on Revision 3 of Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses and Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA Evaluation UN of Regional Census Data, Amman 19 – 23 October 2014 and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

New core topic n Participation in own use production of goods o Persons in own use production of goods are all those above the specific age who during a specified period, performed “any activity” to produce goods for own final use. o Activities: n n n Producing/processing for storage agricultural, fishing, hunting and gathering products Collecting/processing for storage mining and forestry products including firewood and other fuels Fetching water from natural and other sources Manufacturing household goods (furniture, textiles, clothing, etc. ) Building or effecting major repairs to one`s own dwelling, farm building Source: Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Rev. 2, United Nations, 2008 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Additional economic characteristics q Occupation – type of work that the person performs (most recent ISCO-2008 classification) q Industry – kind of production that the establishment in which the person works engages in (most recent ISIC –Rev 4 classification) q Status in employment – type of contract the person has with his place of work (ICSE from the ILO) n Recommended categories: Employee; Employer; Own-account worker; Contributing family worker; Members of producer cooperatives-removed in 2020 recommendations); Persons not classifiable by status Source: Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, Rev. 2, United Nations, 2008 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Example: Egypt labor force measurement (2006) Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) 2006 - 6 and over vs. Egypt Census 2006 -5 and over UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with survey data Egypt Labor Market Panel Surveys and Censuses Data source: Minnesota Population Center. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, International: Version 6. 1 (IPUMS International, with CAPMAS Egypt) and Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS, Economic Research Forum, Egypt) UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with survey data Census result is consistent with ELMPSmarket, but not with ELMPS-extended – reasons? Difference in two definitions People who engage in animal husbandry and the processing of dairy products for purposes of household consumption accounted as employed in the extended definition of the labor force UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Unemployment rate by age UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Employment status – comparison with other sources UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Comparison with survey data q Two definitions of the labor force: n The market labor force includes all those who are either engaged in economic activity for purposes of market exchange or seeking such work n The extended labor force includes those engaged in “the production and processing of primary products, whether for the market, for barter, or for their own consumption; the production of all other goods and services for the market; and, in the case of households that produce such goods and services for the market, the corresponding production for their own consumption. ” (ILO, 1982) n The distinction between the two definitions is particularly salient for women in Egypt, many of whom engage in animal husbandry and the processing of dairy products for purposes of household consumption and are thus counted as employed in the extended definition of the labor force Source: Economic Research Forum, 2007, Labor Supply, Employment and Unemployment in the Egyptian Economy, 1988 -2006, Ragui Assaad, working paper no. 0701 UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017

Some remarks q Census results are closely connected with other areas of statistical activities, therefore supplementary information about the census should be provided to the users for clarification of comparability of census data with previous censuses and other data sources q Further analysis for interpreting the findings UN Regional Workshop on Evaluation and Analysis of Census Data by UNFPA and UNSD, Johannesburg, South Africa, 18 -22 September 2017