1 Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway

  • Slides: 22
Download presentation
1 Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model Joint Eurostat/UNECE

1 Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28 -20 April 2010 Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen Research Department Statistcs Norway 1

Migration to and from Norway, 1970 -2008 Rapid growth: Net immigration quadrupled in 4

Migration to and from Norway, 1970 -2008 Rapid growth: Net immigration quadrupled in 4 years 2

Registered and projected net immigration to Norway Immigration Projections Emigration Net immigration 3

Registered and projected net immigration to Norway Immigration Projections Emigration Net immigration 3

Migration of Polish citizens to and from Norway Net immigration of Polish citizens 2003:

Migration of Polish citizens to and from Norway Net immigration of Polish citizens 2003: 300 2007: 13 000 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 4

Migration of Icelandic citizens between Iceland Norway Thick lines: Statistics Norway Thin lines: Statistics

Migration of Icelandic citizens between Iceland Norway Thick lines: Statistics Norway Thin lines: Statistics Iceland Norway Net Norway Iceland 5

Immigration to Norway by registered reason for immigration 6

Immigration to Norway by registered reason for immigration 6

Norwegian economy • Rapid economic growth due to oil and gas in the North

Norwegian economy • Rapid economic growth due to oil and gas in the North Sea • Most of the revenue from the North Sea invested in The Government Pension Fund - Global • In 2007 the GDP per capita in Norway 76% higher than in OECD • Low unemployment, 2 -4% in recent years • High demand for labour in the construction sector • Norway also hit by the financial crisis, but is recovering 7

Migration theories • People migrate when the expected income is greater than the current

Migration theories • People migrate when the expected income is greater than the current income, less migration costs (Todaro) • Individual migration behavior is guided by the search for better economic opportunities (Borjas) 8

Methods for projecting migration • A projection of population must rest, in part, on

Methods for projecting migration • A projection of population must rest, in part, on a projection of immigration. Yet most official immigration projections … rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology (Howe and Jackson 2006) • Official statistical agencies: Mostly trend extrapolation • A few other attempts (Australia <–> New Zealand; British Columbia) • EUROPOP 2008: net migration flows between member countries will convergence linearly to zero in the convergence year ( 2150) 9

Theoretical framework Migration from country of origin (o) to country of destination (d) is

Theoretical framework Migration from country of origin (o) to country of destination (d) is a function of individual observables and unobservable characteristics: ln wo = μo + εo where εo ~ N (0, σo 2) ln wd = μd + εd where εd ~ N (0, σd 2) Decision to migrate: I = ln (wd/(wo + c)) ≈ (μd - μo - δ ) + εd - εo c and δ: level of mobility costs. Migration if I > 0 Probality of emigration from country o to country d: P = Pr (εd - εo > - (μd - μo - δ )) 10

Empirical analysis Gross flows between Norway and – Denmark – Sweden – OECD countries

Empirical analysis Gross flows between Norway and – Denmark – Sweden – OECD countries – Asia and Africa For Sweden and Denmark: ln. Mij = a 0 + a 1 ln (incomei/incomej) + a 2 Ginii + a 3 Ui + a 4 Uj + a 5 ln. Mjj t-1 11

Sweden Norway Denmark Norway 12

Sweden Norway Denmark Norway 12

GDP per capita in PPP. Norway relative to OECD 13

GDP per capita in PPP. Norway relative to OECD 13

Unemployment rates in OECD and in Norway 1970 -2030 14

Unemployment rates in OECD and in Norway 1970 -2030 14

Estimation of the rate of migration from groups of countries to Norway 15

Estimation of the rate of migration from groups of countries to Norway 15

Modelling immigration from Europe and America by OLS, 1972 – 2008, to be used

Modelling immigration from Europe and America by OLS, 1972 – 2008, to be used in projections Dependent variable: Ln. Mt Coefficient Constant 1. 101 Ln. Mt-1 0. 565 Dummy 1993 0. 312 Dummy 1999 0. 162 Dummy 2005 0. 166 Un. NORt - Un. NORt-2 -0. 062 Ln. GDPNort-2 0. 669 Un. OECDt – Un. OECD t 0. 034 R 2 = 0. 96 F = 108. 5 Std. Error t-value 0. 566 1. 95 nn. 081 6. 98 0. 070 4. 46 0. 073 2. 21 0. 052 3. 21 0. 013 -4. 82 0. 152 4. 40 0. 023 1. 49 16

Gross and net migration flows to Norway History and forecasts 17

Gross and net migration flows to Norway History and forecasts 17

Net immigration to Norway Registered 1990 -2009 and projected 2009 -2060 18

Net immigration to Norway Registered 1990 -2009 and projected 2009 -2060 18

Migration from and to EU and other Western countries Estimated on data for 1966

Migration from and to EU and other Western countries Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 19

Migration from and to non-Western countries: non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin-America, Oceania except

Migration from and to non-Western countries: non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin-America, Oceania except Australia and New Zealand Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 20

Total migration to and from Norway Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net

Total migration to and from Norway Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 21

Thank you for your attention 22

Thank you for your attention 22