1 Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway
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1 Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Lisbon, 28 -20 April 2010 Helge Brunborg and Ådne Cappelen Research Department Statistcs Norway 1
Migration to and from Norway, 1970 -2008 Rapid growth: Net immigration quadrupled in 4 years 2
Registered and projected net immigration to Norway Immigration Projections Emigration Net immigration 3
Migration of Polish citizens to and from Norway Net immigration of Polish citizens 2003: 300 2007: 13 000 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 4
Migration of Icelandic citizens between Iceland Norway Thick lines: Statistics Norway Thin lines: Statistics Iceland Norway Net Norway Iceland 5
Immigration to Norway by registered reason for immigration 6
Norwegian economy • Rapid economic growth due to oil and gas in the North Sea • Most of the revenue from the North Sea invested in The Government Pension Fund - Global • In 2007 the GDP per capita in Norway 76% higher than in OECD • Low unemployment, 2 -4% in recent years • High demand for labour in the construction sector • Norway also hit by the financial crisis, but is recovering 7
Migration theories • People migrate when the expected income is greater than the current income, less migration costs (Todaro) • Individual migration behavior is guided by the search for better economic opportunities (Borjas) 8
Methods for projecting migration • A projection of population must rest, in part, on a projection of immigration. Yet most official immigration projections … rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology (Howe and Jackson 2006) • Official statistical agencies: Mostly trend extrapolation • A few other attempts (Australia <–> New Zealand; British Columbia) • EUROPOP 2008: net migration flows between member countries will convergence linearly to zero in the convergence year ( 2150) 9
Theoretical framework Migration from country of origin (o) to country of destination (d) is a function of individual observables and unobservable characteristics: ln wo = μo + εo where εo ~ N (0, σo 2) ln wd = μd + εd where εd ~ N (0, σd 2) Decision to migrate: I = ln (wd/(wo + c)) ≈ (μd - μo - δ ) + εd - εo c and δ: level of mobility costs. Migration if I > 0 Probality of emigration from country o to country d: P = Pr (εd - εo > - (μd - μo - δ )) 10
Empirical analysis Gross flows between Norway and – Denmark – Sweden – OECD countries – Asia and Africa For Sweden and Denmark: ln. Mij = a 0 + a 1 ln (incomei/incomej) + a 2 Ginii + a 3 Ui + a 4 Uj + a 5 ln. Mjj t-1 11
Sweden Norway Denmark Norway 12
GDP per capita in PPP. Norway relative to OECD 13
Unemployment rates in OECD and in Norway 1970 -2030 14
Estimation of the rate of migration from groups of countries to Norway 15
Modelling immigration from Europe and America by OLS, 1972 – 2008, to be used in projections Dependent variable: Ln. Mt Coefficient Constant 1. 101 Ln. Mt-1 0. 565 Dummy 1993 0. 312 Dummy 1999 0. 162 Dummy 2005 0. 166 Un. NORt - Un. NORt-2 -0. 062 Ln. GDPNort-2 0. 669 Un. OECDt – Un. OECD t 0. 034 R 2 = 0. 96 F = 108. 5 Std. Error t-value 0. 566 1. 95 nn. 081 6. 98 0. 070 4. 46 0. 073 2. 21 0. 052 3. 21 0. 013 -4. 82 0. 152 4. 40 0. 023 1. 49 16
Gross and net migration flows to Norway History and forecasts 17
Net immigration to Norway Registered 1990 -2009 and projected 2009 -2060 18
Migration from and to EU and other Western countries Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 19
Migration from and to non-Western countries: non-EU Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin-America, Oceania except Australia and New Zealand Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 20
Total migration to and from Norway Estimated on data for 1966 -2009 Immigration Net immigration Emigration 21
Thank you for your attention 22
- Norway latitude and longitude
- Sweden and norway use equal quantities of resources
- Living and working in norway
- Sollentuna prison
- Norway water resources
- Vikings mc norway
- Imdi norway
- Russefeiring
- Map of norway cities
- Legal system in norway
- Norway religion
- Religion in norway
- Ncis norway
- Norway currency
- Popultion of norway
- Norway ppp
- Western norway university of applied sciences
- Bixter norway
- Kjell henriksen observatory (kho)
- Pluralisation
- Homelessness in norway
- Spectacular norway base jumping
- Geodata norway