Whither Nanotechnology Ralph C Merkle Xerox PARC www

Whither Nanotechnology Ralph C. Merkle Xerox PARC www. merkle. com 1

Seventh Elba-Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology April, 1999 Rome, Italy www. foresight. org/Conferences 2

The goal: nanotechnology (a. k. a. molecular manufacturing) • Fabricate most structures that are specified with molecular detail and which are consistent with physical law • Get essentially every atom in the right place • Inexpensive manufacturing costs (~10 -50 cents/kilogram) http: //nano. xerox. com/nano 3

Where we are today • We can make only an infinitesimal fraction of what’s possible • We spray atoms around almost randomly • We pay many millions of dollars per kilogram for the thin layer on top of a computer chip that actually computes 4

Possible arrangements of atoms What we can make today (not to scale). 5

The goal of molecular nanotechnology: a healthy bite. . 6

Molecular Manufacturing Systems We don’t have molecular manufacturing today. . We must develop fundamentally new capabilities What we can make today (not to scale) 7

Should we actively pursue the development of molecular nanotechnology? • Is it feasible? • Is it valuable? • Can we do things today to speed it’s development? 8

The good news It is now generally accepted that molecular nanotechnology is feasible and valuable. (This took a few decades) 9

The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done; but in practice, it has not been done because we are too big. Richard Feynman, 1959 http: //nano. xerox. com/nanotech/feynman. html 10

Most interesting structures that are at least substantial local minima on a potential energy surface can probably be made one way or another. Richard Smalley Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996 11

The bad news There’s still a great deal of confusion and disagreement about what to do 12

What needs to be done Experimental work to advance existing capabilities Theoretical work to clarify pathways and objectives 13

Products Produc Core molecular Products manufacturing Products capabilities Products Today Overview of the development of molecular nanotechnology Products Products Products Products Products 14 Products

Issues Positional control Self replication Idiosyncratic versus systematic Making big things How long 15

A proposal for a programmable molecular positional device 16

Issues with positional control Speed Size Error rates Imperfect environment Tip characteristics 17

Proposal for a self replicating device: an assembler http: //www. foresight. org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6. html 18

Von Neumann architecture for a self replicating system Universal Computer Universal Constructor http: //nano. xerox. com/nanotech/von. Neumann. html 19

Drexler’s architecture for an assembler Molecular computer Molecular constructor Positional device Tip chemistry 20

Complexity of self replicating systems (bits) C program 808 Von Neumann's universal constructor 500, 000 Internet worm (Robert Morris, Jr. , 1988) 500, 000 Mycoplasma capricolum 1, 600, 000 E. Coli 9, 278, 442 Drexler's assembler 100, 000 Human 6, 400, 000 NASA Lunar Manufacturing Facility over 100, 000, 000 http: //nano. xerox. com/nanotech/self. Rep. html 21

A C program that prints out an exact copy of itself main(){char q=34, n=10, *a="main() {char q=34, n=10, *a=%c%s%c; printf(a, q, n); }%c"; printf(a, q, n); } For more information, see the Recursion Theorem: http: //nano. xerox. com/nanotech/self. Rep. html 22

English translation: Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes: “Print the following statement twice, the second time in quotes: ” 23

Idiosyncratic vs systematic Idiosyncratic view: each new thing that we synthesize requires some new and unique method of making it which takes much time and effort to work out. Systematic view: new things are made by using old tools in different ways to rearrange standard parts. 24

Is nanotechnology only about small things? Nanotechnology sounds like it’s about making small things. But it’s actually about the precision with which we make things of all sizes, including very big things. 25

How long? • We don’t know • Trends in computer hardware suggest early in the next century — perhaps in the 2010 to 2020 time frame • How long it takes depends on what we do. A focused effort will greatly speed development. 26

It’s possible to think that “nanotechnology” • • • Won’t involve positional control Won’t involve self replication Won’t be systematic Will only make small things Will take 100 years 27

Can we abandon these principles without compromising the goal? • • • Positional control Self replication Systematic methods Products of all sizes A focused effort to develop the technology within our lifetimes 28