The contents of the Copenhagen Accord on climate

The contents of the Copenhagen Accord on climate change Valentino Piana Rome, 23 nd March 2010

Contents 1. The climate debate 2. The Copenhagen Accord: the components and the positive elements 3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs 4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions 5. Finance 6. Next steps www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

1. The climate debate Sustainability Climate change Development Food security World financial architecture www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

2. The Copenhagen Accord : the components The Accord is constituted by: 1. The list of countries that associate themselves with it 2. Twelve articles about Below +2 o Degrees * A shared vision of the future Mostly developed countries Mostly (e. g. developing EU, countries USA, Japan, …) 107 until now, of which 28 African countries * Adaptation * Annex I countries commitments about reduction of greenhouse gases emissions * Non-Annex I countries Nationally appropriate mitigation actions * Deforestation and forest degradation actions * Incentives to low emitting economies * New and additional, predictable and adequated funding with improved access * A High Level Panel to study the sources of funds * The Copenhagen Green Climate Fund * A country-driven Technology Mechanism * The next steps, including the assessment of the implementation of the Accord 3. An appendix containing the commitments of Annex I countries 4. An appendix containing the mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries 5. A Registry of the mitigation actions seeking international support www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

2. The Copenhagen Accord : the positive elements The Accord will test the effectiveness of an approach focused on immediate actions and verification of commitments, through alternative moves from all countries (bottom-up approach). It can fail and under-deliver but it is worth trying. In particular, CA is characterized by the following elements: 1. All major GHG emitting countries involved, generating specific pledges from 73 countries that together account for more than 80 per cent of global emissions from energy use 2. “Operational immediately” 3. 30 billion dollars committed by developed countries for the first three years (of which 2. 4 billion euros committed by EU countries yearly 2010 -2012) 4. A steep rising pathway of funding up to 100 US billions in 2020, where the sources will be studied by a High Level Panel (co-chairs and members already chosen) 5. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions by non-Annex I countries both unilateral and conditional on obtaining international support in terms of technology, funding and capacity-building (art. 5) 6. Technology Mechanism selected, linked to NAMAs (art. 11) 7. Annex I Kyoto Protocol parties “further strengthen” their commitments (art. 4) www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs Art. 3 of the Copenhagen Accord: “Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change and the potential impacts of response measures is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required to ensure the implementation of the [UNFCCC] Convention by enabling and supporting the implementation of adaptation actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and building resilience in developing countries, especially in those that are particularly vulnerable, especially least developed countries, small island developing States and Africa. We agree that developed countries shall provide adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and capacity-building to support the implementation of adaptation action in developing countries. ” www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

3. Adaptation to climate change - the African NAPAs Well in advance to Copenhagen conference, most Least Developed Countries prepared programs for adaptation, the so-called National Adaptation Programmes of Actions. Their cumulative cost is about 1. 7 billion US dollars. 32 African countries have so far presented NAPAs, for a total of about 1. 350 billion US dollars (about the 80% of the total). The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) required long procedures to access the funds as well as large co-financing. Until recently, GEF has disboursed only about 60 millions dollars. www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview NAMAs are schematic texts submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat by national focal points, to be collected in Appendix II of CA and in a special Registry (if looking for support). The 32 countries that have presented official NAMAs before 7 th March 2010 have interpreted “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions” in a wide range of ways: * carbon-neutrality declaration; * economy-wide commitments of reducing emissions in with percentage respect baseline ato. Business-as-Usual of trajectory; * absolute reductions of CO 2 -eq emissions; * sectoral preferential directions of development; * specific goals and actions; * localized projects with specified technical parametres. www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview The geographical distribution of NAMAs www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview The sectoral distribution of NAMAs www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. NAMAs in national planning UNFCCC, MEF/G 8/G 20 Low-emission development strategy (art. 2 CA) Climate Action Plans (BAP six pillars: Shared Vision , Mitigation, Adaptation , Technology , Finance , Capacity building ), e. g. National Adaptation Strategy NAMAs NAPAs www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Local Adaptation Plans ….

4. The process of devising NAMAs and obtaining international support In the country International interface Analysis of existing and forthcoming laws and policies Mitigation potential and international best practices Economic mechanisms of activation Abroad Existing funds Copenhagen Green Climate Fund Submission of NAMAs to UNFCCC Detail design of measures Inter-governmental organizations Private investors Technology / Solution providers Research centres National stakeholders Matching mechanism, dynamics and events Local stakeholders Localisation and implementation www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting NGOs

4. An evaluation of the existing NAMAs Positive features Ø Wide variety Ø Usually reflecting the national circumstances, existing laws and policies Ø Fairly aware of international best practices Ø Many sectors mentioned (e. g. energy , transport , building , agriculture , forestry , tourism , …) Ø Concise documents Ø Better than CDM as for broader transformational potential Negative features Ø Not clear the kind and features of the international support looked for Ø No economic mechanism of activation Ø Not mobilizing the private investors Ø No legal guarantees for investors Ø No appeal to research centres and NGOs Ø Unexplored connection with the Technology Mechanism Ø Often lacking CO 2 reduction quantification Ø Always lacking estimated costs, thus also the cost per avoided ton of CO 2 eq Ø Transformational effects (e. g. green jobs, competitiveness, tax revenue, . . . ) not expressed www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

5. Finance How much is raised 10 billions a year in 20102012 up to 100 billions in 2020 Who pays and by which source What to fund High level panel will make a proposal How and who manage the funds Existing institutions + Copenhagen Green Climate Fund www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Balanced allocation between adaptation and mitigation (for the first 30 billions)

6. Next steps High Level panel on finance first meeting 29 th March UNECA joint session with finance ministries in Malawi UNFCCC session on 9 th-11 th April (Bonn) UNFCCC session in May-June (Bonn) G 8/G 20 in Toronto - launch of the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund? UNFCCC session in Sept/Oct ? Further NAMAs and NAPAs submissions, updated communications, matching events Raising the international support of inter-governmental organizations, multilateral and bilateral donors, research centres, NGOs, etc. www. economicswebinstitute. org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting G 8/G 20 in Korea (November) COP 16 in Cancún (Mexico)