Stratospheric Extension to the CHFP SCHFP and links

Stratospheric Extension to the CHFP “S-CHFP” and links to WCRP-SPARC Adam Scaife WGSIP July 2010 © Crown copyright Met Office

Climate-system Historical Forecast Project • (i) Provide a baseline assessment of our seasonal prediction capabilities using the best available models of the climate system and data for initialisation. • (ii) Provide a framework for assessing of current and planned observing systems, and a test bed for integrating process studies and field campaigns into model improvements • (iii) Provide an experimental framework for focused research on how various components of the climate system interact and affect one another • (iv) Provide a test bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction mode. © Crown copyright Met Office

Why S-CHFP? ENSO teleconnection (Baldwin and Dunkerton 2001) (Ineson and Scaife, 2009) Surface wind at 60 N Dynamical forecast + 70 h. Pa stat fcast © Crown copyright (Christiansen 2005) Met Office QBO teleconnection (Marshall and Scaife 2009)

Stratospheric extension of the CHFP Hi Top Hindcasts • Parallel to WGSIP-CHFP • Extended models • Initialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere • Integrations • 4 month lead times (1 st November and 1 st May start dates) • 2 seasons (DJF and JJA) • Case study years: 1989 onwards • At least 6 members per year, preferably more © Crown copyright Met Office

Stratospheric extension of the CHFP Basic Diagnostics • Monthly means of: surface T, near surface T, precip, pmsl • Monthly means of: • t (10, 30, 50, 700, 850 h. Pa) • u, v (10, 30, 50, 200, 850 h. Pa) • Z (10, 30, 500, 850, 1000 h. Pa) • Daily values: u, T (10, 30 h. Pa), near surface T, sea level P Extensions • Daily precip, Z 500 and monthly means to match CMIP 5 protocols • 12 month forecasts • 4 seasons, 10 members • 1979 onwards © Crown copyright Met Office

Increased number of participants: Institute Model Resolution Model top Reference Contact Met Office HC Had. GEM N 96 L 85 85 km Martin et al 2006, J. Clim. , 19, 1217 -1301 Adam. scaife@metoffice. gov. uk Meteo France Arpege 4. 4 + OPA N 96 L 38 L 91 40 km 0. 01 h. Pa Gueremy et al, 2005, Tellus, 57 A, p 308 -319 Michel. deque@meteo. fr L 31 10 h. Pa ECMWF IFS L 91 0. 01 h. Pa CMAM L 62 T 63 L 71 5 h. Pa ~100 km Scinocca et al 2008, ACP, 8, 7055 -7074 John. Scinocca@ac. gc. ca T 63 L 41 L 64 ~31 km ? Saha et al, J. Clim. , vol. 19, no. 15, p 3483 -3517 Hualu. Pan@noaa. gov ? ? ? ? pnobre@cptec. inpe. br T 63 L 31 10 h. Pa Roeckner et al 2003, MPI report No. 349, 127 pp nkeenlyside@ifm-geomar. de CCCMA NCEP CPTEC CFS v 1 CPTEC © Crown copyright ECHAM 5 Met Office IFM- jean. philippe. piedelievre@meteo. fr t. stockdale@ecmwf. int George. Boer@ec. gc. ca Judith. perlwitz@noaa. gov. uk

SPARC interaction • Attended the SPARC SSG in Oct 2009 on behalf of WGSIP • Presented material on strat-trop coupling in S 2 D prediction • Presented WGSIP CHFP and plan for Strat HFP • Enthusiastic response - SPARC keen to take part in analysis • General skill analysis • Using standard probabilistic verification measures for different regions - WGSIP • Predictions of annular modes? • Sudden warmings and intraseasonal predictability • Particularly in early part of forecasts • ENSO teleconnections • Strong evidence of an effect on Europe, perhaps SH too? • Interannual predictability from the QBO? • Not all models will simulate a QBO but all will initialise it • Blocking frequency? • Do the high-top models exhibit better blocking stats? Are they linked to SSWs? © Crown copyright Met Office

Timeseries of winter NAO Forecast NAO from forecasts around 1 st Nov Observed NAO (EMSLP gridded, Ansell and Allan 2006) Observed NAO (station data, Jones et al 1997) © Crown copyright Met Office

Current Status • Several groups are doing or have done hindcasts with vertically extended models: • Meteo France – COMPLETE • ECMWF – underway – complete by Dec 2010 • UKMO Hadley Centre – underway – complete by Aug 2010 • CCCMA – underway – complete by Dec 2010 • CPTEC – complete by early 2011 • If. M-GEOMAR – complete by Autumn 2010 • DATA repository: • CIMA (Carolina Vera) kindly agreed to host data parallel to CHFP • First files to be uploaded in next few weeks © Crown copyright Met Office

SPARC - Dyn. Var Workshop • SPARC Dyn. Var activity is part of the Stratospheric Process and their Role in Climate Project (SPARC). SPARC is a core project of the World Climate Research Program • “To determine the dependence of the mean climate, climate variability, and climate change on stratospheric dynamics as represented in Climate Models” • Plan to use CMIP 5 and S-CHFP results • The SPARC Dyn. Var Activity will hold its 2 nd Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, USA, 3 -5 November 2010 • Hosted by CIRES and NOAA in Boulder Colorado, will include a talk on seasonal and stratosphere and S-CHFP • For further information and limited travel funds available to support attendance: elisa. manzini@zmaw. de © Crown copyright Met Office