Real time Extended Range Forecast India Meteorological Department

Real time Extended Range Forecast (India Meteorological Department) Based on 09 October 2019 (Valid for 11 Oct – 07 Nov 2019) • Wind, Tmax, Tmin and Rainfall evolution. • Weekly rainfall, Tmax and Tmin (mean and anomaly for 4 weeks) • Additional plots of MSLP, wind at 850, 500 and 200 h. Pa are available • The rainfall weekly plots with district boundary are also available • The Tmax and Tmin plots week wise are also available The forecast is based on the GFS suite of models run at IMD 1

IMD’s Operational Extended Range Forecast (ERF) System Bias Corrected Forecasts for 4 Week (Wind, Rainfall, Tmax, Tmin) and its anomaly Friday to Thursday Week 1: (11 -17 Oct) Week 2: (18 -24 Oct) Week 3: (25 -31 Oct) Week 4: (01 -07 Nov) 16 Jan, 2010 2

MSLP

850 h. Pa mean wind

850 h. Pa wind anomaly

500 h. Pa mean wind

500 h. Pa wind anomaly

200 h. Pa mean wind

200 h. Pa wind anomaly

Mean Forecast MME Based on 09 October 2019 initial condition Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850 h. Pa

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME)

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME) with % departure of rainfall over India as a whole and 4 homogeneous regions AISMR, NE, NW, CE & SP 33. 00, -46. 14, -86. 65, 80. 87, 79. 90 AISMR, NE, NW, CE & SP 137. 72, 48. 29, -43. 27, 426. 62, 115. 65 AISMR, NE, NW, CE & SP 42. 67, -63. 62, -8. 78, 115. 22, 64. 28 AISMR, NE, NW, CE & SP 33. 34, 28. 33, 137. 06, 69. 33, 1. 96

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax anomaly

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin Anomaly

Extended Range Forecast (ERF) for 4 weeks Based on initial condition of 09 October, 2019 Week 1 -(11 -17 Oct), Week 2 -(18 -24 Oct), Week 3 -(25 -31 Oct), & Week 4 -(01 -07 Nov) Circulation Week 1 to week 4: (i) Northwesterly wind established over NW India from week 1 and become prominent in week 2 to week 4 withdrawal of monsoon. Rainfall Week 1 : Main rainfall activity is over southern parts of central India and south Peninsula. Northwest India rainfall decreased substantially. Week 2 to Week 4: Rainfall over south peninsula to increase substantially in week 2. (Indication of early commencement of northeast monsoon). Week 3 to Week 4: Rainfall over south peninsula will decrease from previous week during this period. TEMPERATURE Tmax (Max. Temperature): Week 1 and 4: Tmax anomaly is mostly negative over India during the period except some parts over Indo-Gangetic region and adjoining northern India. Tmin (Min. Temperature): Week 1 and 4: Slight above normal Tmin over southern parts of India, whereas over the northern parts Tmin is expected to be below normal during first three weeks. 21

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