Real time Extended Range Forecast India Meteorological Department

  • Slides: 23
Download presentation
Real time Extended Range Forecast (India Meteorological Department) Based on 28 Aug 2019 (Valid

Real time Extended Range Forecast (India Meteorological Department) Based on 28 Aug 2019 (Valid for 30 Aug – 26 Sep 2019) • Wind, Tmax, Tmin and Rainfall evolution. • Weekly rainfall, Tmax and Tmin (mean and anomaly for 4 weeks) • Additional plots of MSLP, wind at 850, 500 and 200 h. Pa are available • The rainfall weekly plots with district boundary are also available • The Tmax and Tmin plots week wise are also available The forecast is based on the GFS suite of models run at IMD 1

IMD’s Operational Extended Range Forecast (ERF) System Bias Corrected Forecasts for 4 Week (Wind,

IMD’s Operational Extended Range Forecast (ERF) System Bias Corrected Forecasts for 4 Week (Wind, Rainfall, Tmax, Tmin) and its anomaly Friday to Thursday Week 1: (30 Aug-05 Sep) Week 2: (06 -12 Sep) Week 3: (13 -19 Sep) Week 4: (20 -26 Sep) 16 Jan, 2010 2

MSLP

MSLP

850 h. Pa mean wind

850 h. Pa mean wind

850 h. Pa wind anomaly

850 h. Pa wind anomaly

500 h. Pa mean wind

500 h. Pa mean wind

500 h. Pa wind anomaly

500 h. Pa wind anomaly

200 h. Pa mean wind

200 h. Pa mean wind

200 h. Pa wind anomaly

200 h. Pa wind anomaly

Mean Forecast MME Based on 28 Aug 2019 initial condition Daily evolution of rainfall

Mean Forecast MME Based on 28 Aug 2019 initial condition Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850 h. Pa

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME)

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME)

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME) with % departure of rainfall over

Predicted week wise weekly mean rainfall ( MME) with % departure of rainfall over India as a whole and 4 homogeneous regions AISMR, NE, NW, &CE, & SP(%) AISMR, NE, NW, AISMR, NE, CE, NW, SP(%) CE, & SP(%) -3. 16 -22. 01 -13. 43 24. 25 -14. 41 -3. 16 19. 07 -22. 01 -19. 25 -13. 43 18. 09 24. 25 41. 80 -14. 41 33. 10 AISMR, NE, && SP(%) AISMR, NE, NW, CE, & CE, SP(%) AISMR, NW, CE, SP(%) -3. 16 -22. 01 -13. 43 4. 42 9. 56 -19. 09 7. 6424. 25 7. 11 -14. 41 38. 26 35. 66 93. 83 46. 92 2. 93 AISMR, NE, NW, CE, & SP(%) NE, NW, & SP(%) -0. 73 AISMR, -1. 46 -22. 01 6. 08 12. 14 -30. 84 AISMR, NE, -13. 43 NW, CE, &-14. 41 SP(%) -3. 16 24. 25 20. 17 23. 43 33. 1334. 51 -14. 846. 24 115. 33 71. 154. 03 -17. 21 AISMR, NE, NW, CE, & SP(%) AISMR, NE, NW, & SP(%) AISMR, NW, CE, 9. 19 -9. 61 28. 87 18. 34 12. 83& SP(%) -3. 16 15. 60 -22. 01 27. 93 -13. 43 48. 49 24. 25 12. 50 -14. 41 -5. 40

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax anomaly

Predicted Bias corrected Tmax anomaly

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin Anomaly

Predicted Bias corrected Tmin Anomaly

Extended Range Forecast (ERF) for 4 weeks Based on initial condition of 28 Aug,

Extended Range Forecast (ERF) for 4 weeks Based on initial condition of 28 Aug, 2019 Week 1 -(30 Aug-05 Sep), Week 2 -(06 -12 Sep), Week 3 -(13 -19 Sep) & Week 4 (20 -26 Sep) Circulation Week 1 to week 4: (i) Active monsoon circulation with anomalous cyclonic circulation over monsoon trough belt during week 1 and also week 2. (ii) Monsoon circulation over Indo-Gangetic plain will remain stronger during week 3 and week 4 also. Rainfall Week 1 : Mainly above normal rainfall over central parts of India (Odisha, Chhattisgarh, MP and adjoining parts of UP, Maharashtra) and northern part of the country along with that over the southern peninsula (except Tamil Nadu). The eastern and northeastern parts of the country, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu region will have below normal rainfall during the week. Week 2 : Above normal rainfall likely over many parts of country during the week except that over eastern and adjoining northeastern belts of the country and south-eastern peninsular region during the week. Week 3 and week 4 : Eastern parts of the country and adjoining Indo-Gangetic region will have above normal rainfall and rest regions will be normal to below normal rainfall during the period. 21

TEMPERATURE Tmax (Max. Temperature): Week 1 and 4: Tmax anomaly is likely to be

TEMPERATURE Tmax (Max. Temperature): Week 1 and 4: Tmax anomaly is likely to be positive over northern parts of India and along the Indo-Gangetic region during week 1. During week 2 to week 3 it is mainly below normal over most parts of India. Tmin (Min. Temperature): Week 1 and 4: Above normal Tmin over northern parts of India and adjoining central parts of India during the period. 22

THANK YOU

THANK YOU