National Meteorological Service of Belize Presents Climate Services

National Meteorological Service of Belize Presents Climate Services and Products in Belize at the National Level By Catherine Cumberbatch & Derrick Rudon October 30, 2013 Radisson Fort George

What are the Climate Services and who are the Providers in Belize?

This is undertaken in order to contribute to authority on weather, water and the safety and well-being • climate. systematic and accurate monitoring and data collection of the people of Belize • reliable datasustainable analyses and the development the • timely dissemination of of user-friendly information on regular and emergency nation. events and processes. It provides meteorological and climate. The National Meteorological Service based products and services to the of Belize is the leading governmental Belizean public through :

Meteorological Instruments Network

What are the Climate Service National Met Service of Belize issues the following services: 1. Short-term (3 hours up to 2 days) �General or Public Forecast. �Marine Forecast �Aviation Forecast �Fire Forecast �Radar

Forecast products 24 - 48 hours

Cont’d 2. Mid-term (4 days) weather forecasts �Four day forecast �Agro-meteorological Forecast �Television Forecast

Climate Services Cont’d 3. Long-term (monthly) weather forecasts �Monthly Agro-met Bulletin. �Climate predictions for 3 -months and seasons example - May-June-July (MJJ), August. September-October (ASO) �Drought Monitoring

Climate Predictability Tool • The Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) developed by the International Research Institute (IRI) • Produces seasonal forecast for precipitation

Precipitation Outlook For October-December 2013

Precipitation Outlook for August to October 2013

1935 1936 1938 1940 1942 1943 1945 1947 1949 1950 1952 1954 1956 1957 1959 1961 1963 1964 1966 1968 1970 1971 1973 1975 1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1989 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2012 SPI 56 58 54 53 19 59 19 61 19 63 19 64 19 66 19 68 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 94 19 96 19 98 19 99 20 0 20 1 0 20 3 04 20 06 20 08 20 09 20 11 20 13 19 19 Standard Precipitation Index for Philip Goldson International Airport (1953 -2013) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 3 Months 6 Months Standard Precipitation Index for Punta Gorda (1935 -2013) 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 3 Month 6 Months

The results of the Standard Precipitation Index calculations for a few stations across Belize. Oct-13 Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for OND Probability Station 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Philip Goldson Airport 0. 2 - 2. 91 -0. 49 - 0. 2 0. 68 - 3. 06 0. 25 - 0. 68 1. 25 - 3. 02 0. 96 - 1. 25 0. 28 - 2. 06 0. 01 - 0. 28 -1. 8 - -0. 49 -0. 34 - 0. 25 0. 58 - 0. 96 -0. 34 – 0. 58 30 Below 0. 91 - 1. 96 0. 48 - 0. 91 1 - 1. 51 0. 83 – 1. 0 0. 77 – 1. 11 0. 66 – 0. 77 0. 09 – 0. 35 0. 01 - 0. 09 35 Above 35 Normal -1. 06 – 0. 48 0. 49 – 2. 23 0. 45 – 0. 83 0. 86 – 2. 22 0. 44 – 0. 66 0. 55 – 1. 62 -0. 16 – 0. 01 0. 51 – 1. 39 30 Below 35 Above -0. 38 – 0. 49 0. 34 – 0. 86 0. 17 – 0. 55 0. 22 – 0. 51 35 Normal -2. 24 - -0. 38 0. 41 – 2. 58 -0. 35 – 0. 34 1. 58 – 3. 13 -0. 3 – 0. 17 0. 99 – 2. 4 -0. 15 – 0. 22 0. 39 – 1. 65 30 Below 35 Above -0. 16 – 0. 41 1. 27 – 1. 58 0. 74 – 0. 99 0. 18 – 0. 39 35 Normal -2. 88 - -0. 16 0. 45 – 1. 27 0. 09 – 0. 74 -0. 35 – 0. 18 30 Below Station 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 12 Month Probability Philip Goldson Airport 0. 65 – 1. 81 0. 25 – 3. 32 1. 31 – 3. 45 0. 79 – 2. 06 35 Above 0. 05 – 0. 65 -0. 65 – 0. 25 0. 78 – 1. 31 0. 31 – 0. 79 35 Normal -2. 89 – 0. 05 0. 72 – 2. 09 0. 48 -0. 72 -2. 48 - -0. 65 1. 05 – 2. 19 0. 76 – 1. 05 -0. 19 – 0. 78 0. 94 – 1. 62 0. 79 – 0. 94 -0. 53 – 0. 31 0. 25 – 0. 78 0. 14 – 0. 25 30 Below 35 Above 35 Normal -1. 47 – 0. 48 0. 52 – 1. 75 -0. 36 – 0. 76 0. 78 – 2. 79 0. 31 – 0. 79 0. 9 – 2. 34 -0. 21 – 0. 14 0. 53 – 1. 87 30 Below 35 Above -0. 22 – 0. 52 -0. 19 – 0. 78 0. 3 – 0. 9 0 – 0. 53 35 Normal -3. 62 - -0. 22 0. 69 – 1. 67 0 – 0. 69 -1. 98 - -0. 19 0. 95 – 3. 16 0. 23 – 0. 95 -0. 69 – 0. 3 1. 39 – 3. 28 0. 84 – 1. 39 -0. 84 – 0 0. 75 – 2. 35 0. 32 – 0. 75 30 Below 35 Above 35 Normal -2. 66 - 0 -1. 64 – 0. 23 -0. 45 – 0. 84 -0. 64 – 0. 32 30 Below Central Farm Melinda Tower. Hill 35 Above 35 Normal Nov-13 Central Farm Melinda Tower. Hill

Climate Services Cont’d Data Request �Climatological norms �Graphical analysis �Predictive trends (temperature and rainfall) �Summaries (rainfall, temperatures etc) �Astronomical Products �Hurricane Reports

Climatological Information

TRENDS Time series plots are made by using historical data from our network of stations. From these plots linear trend and 5 -year moving averages can be determined

PGIA Average Temperatures (C) 27. 6 27. 1 26. 6 26. 1 25. 6 25. 1 24. 6 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Years PGIA Annual Total Rainfall 3000 Rainfall (mm) 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Years 1990

Ways to disseminate information • Public Media Monthly Bulletins Monthly Weather Forecasts Seasonal Forecasts Siren Systems Radio and TV Broadcasts Internet (www. hydromet. gov. bz) •

Demands for climate service are huge and we at the Met Service continue to do our utmost best to provide the service in order to contribute to the safety and well -being of the people of Belize and the sustainable development of the nation. Threat of Climate Change demands a lot from the National Meteorological Service.

�There are many Challenges we face in our day to day work. Example we lack the expertise in Climatology and Agro-meteorology. We have limited staff. �But with all our shortcomings we continue to strive towards Excellence. We often looked to the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for their Guidance and Assistance , which I must say they have being extremely helpful.

�We all have heard and see most of the services and products that we have and that can be provided by the National Meteorological Service , it’s up to you to tell us how these services can help each of you in your specific field and quest. �Or tell us of other services or products that you think we can provide to you that would be beneficial.