Modeling in DSS cont Modeling process and solution

Modeling in DSS (cont. ) § Modeling process and solution approach § Trail and Error § Simulation § Optimization § Heuristics Decision Support and Business Intelligence Systems, Eighth Edition 1

Trail & error § In trial and error, one selects a possible answer, applies it to the problem and, if it is not successful, selects (or generates) another possibility that is subsequently tried. The process ends when a possibility yields a solution. G an en ot era he te r s 2

Trail & error definition § It is the process of finding a solution to a problem by trying many possible solutions and learning from mistakes until a way is found. § Trial and error is typically good for problems where you have multiple chances to get the correct solution. However, this is not a good technique for problems that don't give you multiple chances to find a solution. 3

Example of Trail & error § § § When you are a baby, you touch the stove, and burn your hand. Next time, you know not to touch it, because it is hot and will burn. Trial and error has traditionally been the main method of finding new drugs, such as antibiotics. Chemists simply try chemicals at random until they find one with the desired effect. Medical experiments using serum and vaccine on animals first and when substantiated live up attempts on a sample of people. 4

Simulation § a simulation is computer-based model used to run experiments on a real system. § Example: Train medical students 5

Optimization § It is model that used to find the best possible choice out of a set of alternatives. § It is process of finding function extreme to solve problems. § Example: When we want to marketing a new product we are looking for the best way of publicity and advertising it, whether through newspapers, television, websites and even a Promotional brochures to reaches a broader spectrum of people. 6

Heuristic § It is a set of instructions, manuals and rules used by the system administrator of the intervene to resolve the problem are often used in decision making § Heuristics are typically used when there is no known method to find an optimal solution, under the given constraints (of time, space etc. ) or at all. § Several heuristic methods are used by antivirus software to detect viruses and other malware. 7