Information and Research Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and

Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, NAMEM, MONGOLIA Recent climate feature and seasonal outlook for Summer 2017 over Mongolia The 13 th Session of the FOCRA, 24 -26, April, 2017, Beijing, China DAVAADORJ Amarsaikhan, JARGALAN Bayaraa and SARANTUYA Chuluun Weather and Environmental, Numerical Modeling Research Division, IRIMHE, NAMEM

Outline Ø Recent climate feature Ø Last winter accuracy Ø Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2017 over Mongolia Ø Summary

Temperature Daily mean temperature anomaly in DJF (0 C) Anomaly 1. 60 C December Mean -16. 70 C The temperature anomaly 2. 60 C 2 nd warmest winter since 1961 December +2. 20 C, 4 th warmest January February +0. 80 C +1. 90 C

Precipitation Ratio 112. 0% Daily mean precipitation anomaly (mm) Total 7 mm December January 126. 1% February 88. 4% 121. 7%

Atmospheric circulation SLP December January February Z 500 December January February

Notable event(cold spell and heavy snow in November) 2 nd below normal since 1961 Temperature anomaly -2. 30 C 3 -rd above normal since 1961 Z 500 geopotential height anomaly in November Total precipitation

The accuracy of winter temperature Forecast Observed Accuracy Dec 51. 4% Jan Feb 51. 4% 46. 0%

The accuracy of winter precipitation Forecast Observed Accuracy Dec 49. 3% Jan 55. 7% Feb 57. 9%

Accuracy of monthly forecast

Seasonal outlook for summer 2017 over Mongolia

How we produce our prediction Local Climate model ANALOG ERHUU Statistical downscaling, MRG, APCC PNU_CGCM Extreme probabilistic method

PNU (issued april) June July August Temperature Precipitation

CMA: FODAS

Climate prediction in Summer June July August

Summary Mongolia experienced above normal temperature and normal precipitation in 2016/2017 winter. The winter mean temperature over Mongolia was -16. 7 o. C, which was the above normal (1981 -2010 average), especially western and southern part of Mongolia Furthermore, the winter total precipitation was 7 mm, which was of near normal. The monthly precipitation ratio to normal were 126. 1%, 88. 4%, and 121. 7% for the December, January and February, respectively. Based on statistic models and dynamic model, the seasonal outlook over Mongolia in 2017 summer illustrated. The summer temperature expect above normal, especially northern part of Mongolia. The summer precipitation expect above normal for eastern and some part of southern part of Mongolia.

Thank you for your attention

Notable event(Cold spell in Eastern part of Mongolia) 2 -nd below normal temperature in Eastern part of Mongolia

Atmospheric circulation Anomaly of geopotential height in DJF (42. 5 -50. 0 o) Time evolution of 500 geopotential height anomaly over Mongolia February January December

Temperature Precipitation