How Garfield County Can Attract and Retain Young

How Garfield County Can Attract and Retain Young People to Ensure Economic Resiliency and Growth Ben Wilson, Anna Harvey, and Justin Smith Econ 492: Senior Capstone Advisor: Dr. Stephan Weiler December/2020

Overview • Foundation: Economic Base Analysis and Socio-Economic Assets - Component Base Industry Shares in Garfield County - Comparing Garfield to Regional Competitors and Front Range • Resiliency, Bridging, and Pivoting: Analyzing Potential Rural Linkages to the Urban Front Range + Location Quotients - A Spatial Perspective of Businesses in Professional and Business Services • Research Question • Introduction to Survey - Why Young People Would Not Move to a Rural County - Why Young People Would Move to a Rural County - Takeaways from Survey • Implications - Proposal: Colorado Mountain College as a Bridge to Front Range • References

• Population 60, 858 people in 2020 (State Demography Office, 2020). • Glenwood Springs, Carbondale, Rifle, New Castle, Silt, and Parachute. • Direct Basic Employment = 71. 8% of total employment. • Indirect Basic Employment = 12. 6% of total employment. • Multiplier = 1. 39. • Two Drivers: Households and Regional Center/National Services. % Total Base Employment by Industry Foundation: Economic Base Analysis and Socio-Economic Assets • Local Resident Services = 15. 6% of total employment. Direct Basic Industry Shares in Garfield County 2019 40, 0% 35, 0% 30, 0% 25, 0% 20, 0% 15, 0% 10, 0% 5, 0% 0, 0% Households TOTAL (Base) 34, 5% Regional Base Industries Agribusiness Center/National Tourism TOTAL Government (Base) Services TOTAL (Base) 26, 1% 17, 1% 10, 8% 5, 8% Mining (Base) Manufacturing (Base) 4, 5% 1, 3%

• Main components for Households are Retirees and Other Household Incomes in the form of Dividends, Interest, and Rent. • Likely driven by the aged 65 -year-old and greater age group which includes 8, 262 individuals (State Demography Office, 2020). • Negative Direct Basic Employment for Commuters which is illuminated by the 13, 953 Residents of Garfield County working outside of Garfield County and in 7, 943 Employees in Garfield County from counties outside of Garfield County (State Demography Office, 2020). Direct Basic Industry Component Shares 25, 0% 22, 7% 20, 0% 15, 0% 10, 0% 5, 0% 0, 0% -5, 0% 11, 6%10, 2% 9, 7% 2, 4% -0, 2% Households TOTAL (Base) 34. 5% 10, 9% 2, 0% 1, 6% 0, 6% 4, 5% 0, 1% Regional Center/National Services TOTAL (Base) 26. 1% 10, 8% 5, 8% 1, 3% 0, 5% 4, 5% 1, 3% Tourism TOTAL (Base) 17. 1% Ot HH D Ot he r. H HH D o he use Re r H ho tir ou ld ees se Inc ho om HH ld E. . . RC m D NS Co plo Ed. m m. . uc ut at er io RC s n NS RC & H N e P S RC rofe Co alth NS ss mm Se io r T u RC rad nal nic. . . an at NS e Fin and d B ion an Tr usi ce an ne s. , I ns por. . u t RC ra ati. . . NS nc T Co e & Re c ns R. T /Lo tru. . Re dg ct al in io Es g/ n T F t Re at oo ta e/ il T Co d (R ra ns eso de tru rts c & ) Pe tion rs ( S o T Tr nal. . . an Se sp r or. . . ta Go tio ve n rn m en t( Ba Ag se rib ) us in es s( Ba se ) M in in g( M Ba an se uf ) ac tu rin g( Ba se ) Component Share by Base Industry • Main components for Regional Center/National Services are Education & Health Services, Communications, and Professional and Business Services. Our advice is for these component industries to be recognized and supported as the driver industries of the future for Garfield County, especially focusing on developing the Professional and Business Services industry. HH D Component Base Industry Shares in Garfield County Base Industries and Components

Garfield vs. Regional Competitors Comparing Garfield to Regional Competitors 40, 0% 35, 0% 30, 0% Regional Competitor counties of Pitkin, Eagle, and Mesa. Garfield County has a greater Direct Basic Employment industry share than Regional Competitor counties in total Households, the Household component of Retirees, the Regional Center/National Services component of Communications, and Government. 25, 0% 20, 0% 15, 0% 10, 0% 5, 0% 0, 0% Households TOTAL (Base) Government (Base) HHD Retirees RCNS Communication Garfield 34, 5% 10, 8% 22, 7% 10, 2% Eagle 24, 4% 3, 9% 8, 7% 0, 5% Pitkin 26, 0% 2, 2% 14, 2% 0, 0% Mesa 34, 1% 9, 6% 18, 2% 4, 5%

Garfield vs. Front Range Comparing Garfield to Front Range 40, 0% 35, 0% 30, 0% 25, 0% • Front Range counties of El Paso, Larimer, and Denver-Boulder. • Garfield has a greater Direct Basic Employment industry share in total Households, the Household components of Retirees and Other Household Income, the Regional Center/National Services components of Education & Health Services and Communication, the Tourism components of Real Estate & Construction of Second Homes and Resorts, and Mining. • Garfield County should recognize and support these industries because they offer an opportunity to attract talented working individuals from the Front Range. 20, 0% 15, 0% 10, 0% 5, 0% 0, 0% Households TOTAL (Base) Mining (Base) HHD Retirees HHD Other Household Income (Div/Interest/Rent) RCNS Education & Health Services RCNS Communication T Real Estate/Construction (Second Homes) T Rec/Lodging/Food (Resorts) Garfield 34, 5% 22, 7% Denver-Boulder MSA 21, 3% 13, 5% Larimer 30, 1% 0, 4% 14, 2% El Paso 28, 9% 0, 0% 13, 9% 9, 7% 6, 7% 7, 5% 6, 9% 11, 6% 10, 2% 4, 5% 10, 9% 11, 3% 2, 9% 1, 1% 5, 6% 9, 2% 2, 7% 0, 9% 7, 8% 11, 5% 1, 6% 0, 9% 6, 3%

Comparing Garfield to Regional Competitors and Front Range Garfield vs. Regional Competitors and Front Range 80, 0% 70, 0% 60, 0% 50, 0% • Garfield County has a greater Direct Basic Employment industry share than the Front Range and Regional Competitor counties in total Households, the Household component of Retirees, and the Regional Center/National Services component of Communications. • Garfield County has a comparative advantage in these industries, and they will continue to bring money to Garfield County from the Front Range and Regional Competitor counties. 40, 0% 30, 0% 20, 0% 10, 0% RCNS Communication HHD Retirees Households TOTAL (Base) Garfield Eagle Pitkin Mesa 10, 2% 22, 7% 34, 5% 0, 5% 8, 7% 24, 4% 0, 0% 14, 2% 26, 0% 4, 5% 18, 2% 34, 1% Denver. Boulder MSA 2, 9% 13, 5% 21, 3% Larimer El Paso 2, 7% 14, 2% 30, 1% 1, 6% 13, 9% 28, 9%

RCNS Professional and Business Services • Garfield Base Industry Share of RCNS Professional and Business Services vs. Regional Competitors and Front Range. • Direct Basic Employment industry share of Professional and Business Services is lower in Garfield County than every comparison county. • We advise that this industry needs to be recognized for its potential development and growth. Denver-Boulder MSA El Paso Larimer Pitkin Eagle Mesa Garfield 0, 0% 2, 0% 4, 0% 6, 0% 8, 0% 10, 0% 12, 0% 14, 0% 16, 0% 18, 0% 20, 0%

Resiliency, Bridging, and Pivoting: Analyzing Potential Rural Linkages to the Urban Front Range • To understand the industries influencing the Direct Basic Employment drivers of Garfield County, we computed Location Quotients for Jobs, Wages, and Proprietors using Colorado as a benchmark. • We found the industries with the highest average specialization in Jobs from 2001 to 2019 are related to Mining, Oil & Gas Extraction, and Scenic, Sightseeing, and Water Transportation, and each of these industries have experienced Location Quotient growth.

JOBS Location Quotient % Growth 2001 - 2019 for Professional and Business Services Jobs for Professional and Business Services • We further analyzed each component industry for the Professional and Business Services driver for Jobs, Wages, and Proprietors. • Significantly, we observed that the Waste Management and Remediation Services industry has a high Location Quotient for Jobs Professional and Business Services driver. • We observe in contrast to Waste Management and Remediation Services, that the Location Quotient is low for Jobs for Professional and Business Services, Management of Companies and Enterprise, Administration and Waste, and Administration and Support Services. Significantly, from 2001 to 2019 the Location Quotient growth for Jobs and Wages for Professional and Business Services and Management of Companies and Enterprise has contracted. 120, 00% 96, 51% 100, 00% 80, 00% 60, 00% 33, 65% 40, 00% 32, 33% 20, 00% LQ Growth -5, 37% -20, 00% -40, 00% -60, 00% -51, 43% Professional and business services Management of companies and enterprise Admin and waste Administrative and support services Waste management and remediation servi Location Quotient (JOBS Value) Jobs 01 Jobs 06 Jobs 11 Jobs 16 Jobs 19 Professional and business services 0. 71 0. 65 0. 66 0. 63 0. 66 Management of companies and enterprise 0. 81 0. 47 0. 48 0. 38 Admin and waste 0. 76 0. 62 0. 68 0. 86 0. 94 Administrative and support services 0. 75 0. 58 0. 61 0. 80 0. 88 Waste management and remediation servi 0. 98 1. 55 2. 23 2. 26 2. 07

WAGES Location Quotient % Growth 2001 - 2019 for Professional and Business Services Wages for Professional and Business Services • Similarly, we observe in contrast to Waste Management and Remediation Services, that the Location Quotient is low for Wages for Professional and Business Services, Management of Companies and Enterprise, Administration and Waste, and Administration and Support Services. • Significantly, from 2001 to 2019 the Location Quotient growth for Wages for Professional and Business Services and Management of Companies and Enterprise has contracted. 120, 00% 101, 83% 100, 00% 80, 00% 60, 00% 31, 99% 40, 00% 30, 20% 20, 00% -20, 00% LQ Growth -8, 96% -40, 00% -60, 00% -52, 02% Professional and business services Management of companies and enterprise Admin and waste Administrative and support services Waste management and remediation servi Location Quotient (WAGES Value) WS 01 WS 06 WS 11 WS 16 WS 19 Professional and business services 0. 63 0. 60 0. 57 0. 54 0. 56 Management of companies and enterprise 0. 87 0. 48 0. 50 0. 40 Admin and waste 0. 67 0. 50 0. 57 0. 79 0. 80 Administrative and support services 0. 65 0. 44 0. 47 0. 70 0. 72 Waste management and remediation servi 0. 99 1. 56 2. 35 2. 42 2. 18

Proprietors for Professional and Business Services Proprietors Location Quotient % Growth 2001 - 2019 for Professional and Business Servies 30, 00% 24, 48% 25, 00% 18, 78% 18, 53% 20, 00% 15, 00% • Contrastingly, from Jobs and Wages for Professional and Business Services, we observe that from 2001 to 2019 the Location Quotient growth for Proprietors in each component industry for Professional and Business Services has grown apart from Management of Companies and Enterprise. • This is a promising trend that we want to highlight because it suggests entrepreneurs in the Professional and Business Services industry are doing well in Garfield County. 10, 00% 6, 17% 5, 00% 0, 00% LQ Growth Professional and business services Management of companies and enterprise Admin and waste Administrative and support services Waste management and remediation servi Location Quotient (PROP Value) Prop 01 Prop 06 Prop 11 Prop 16 Prop 19 Professional and business services 0. 74 0. 69 0. 76 0. 73 0. 80 Management of companies and enterprise 0. 00 Admin and waste 1. 20 1. 21 1. 05 1. 11 1. 32 Administrative and support services 1. 19 1. 20 1. 05 1. 11 1. 32

A Spatial Perspective of Businesses in Professional and Business Services by Number of Employees • To develop a spatial perspective of the Professional and Business Services industry for Garfield County, we used the Businesses for All Industries in Garfield County, Colorado table to map business locations and attributes (Database. USA. com). • Map shows the number of employees for each Professional and Business Services business in Garfield County. • Given there a total 4, 452 Professional and Business Services employees, we observe a trend in which the businesses employing the most people are located in Rifle, Glenwood Springs, and Carbondale. • Importantly, Valley View Hospital Professional Billing Services employs 300 individuals in Rifle, Colorado.

A Spatial Perspective of Businesses in Professional and Business Services by Sales Volume • Map shows the sales volume for each Professional and Business Services business in Garfield County. • The sum of sales volume for 2019 for Professional and Business Services was $653, 007, 643 which indicates that there are major firms located in Rifle, Glenwood Springs, and Carbondale.

Takeaways from Base Analysis, Location Quotients, and Spatial Perspectives. • We observed that Garfield County has a lower Direct Basic Employment industry share for Professional and Business Services than Front Range counties, and we observed a low Location Quotient for Professional and Business Services across Jobs, Wages, and Proprietors. • However, in recognizing and supporting Professional and Business Services, Garfield County has bridging opportunities to the Front Range. • Given the current growth of broadband-enabled Location Neutral Businesses and Employees, Garfield County should act to attract location neutral workers in the Professional and Business Services industry from the Front Range. • Most importantly, Garfield County needs to understand its demographics and learn how to attract and retain young people who will work in Professional and Business Services because this will ensure a future of economic resiliency and growth.

RESEARCH QUESTION How Can Garfield County Attract and Retain Young People to Ensure Economic Resiliency and Growth?

◇ There is a large portion of young adults that are staying in Garfield. ◇Colorado Mountain College -Attracts young adults -Still below state average by ~3% ◇Post-Graduation -Major jumps in migration in the 25 -34 categories ◇ Age Group: 25 -29 -Largest increase in net migration ◇Age Group: 30 -34 -Highest net migration rate

Survey Why Would Move To #of Why Would Not Move To %of total #of %of total nature 39 41. 05% amenities 37 36. 27% community 35 36. 84% jobs 12 11. 76% push comm. 17 48. 58% politics 8 7. 84% pull comm. 18 51. 42% distance 28 27. 45% 17 16. 67% politics land/price 2 19 2. 11% community 20. 00%

Survey Results "Why Would Not Move to a Rural County" 17% 36% amenities jobs politics distance 27% comm 8% 12%

"Why Would Move to a Rural County" Survey Results Contd. 20% 41% 2% nature comm. politics land/price 37%

Understanding the data • The qualitative data shows the lack of modernization • Highlights more precise preventative issues • Highlights what is already working for Garfield County

IMPLICATIONS: SO, WHAT? Programs: Professional and Business Services Degree Type A+ Computer Technician Certificate Accounting: Bookkeeper Associate + BAS Business Associate Business Administration Bachelor Digital Marketing Certificate Digital Media Associate + BAS Digital Production Certificate Economics Associate Graphic Design Associate + BAS Graphic Design Certificate Graphic Design: Web Technology Certificate Information Technology Specialist Associate + BAS Network + Certificate Security + Certificate Server + Certificate Ski & Snowboard Business Associate + BAS Ski & Snowboard Business Certificate Ski and Snowboard Guide: Level I Certificate Ski & Snowboard Retail & Repair Shop Technician Certificate Ski Area Operations: Slopes and Trails Maintenance Certificate Ski & Snowboard Shop Manager Certificate Ski Area Operations Associate + BAS Ski Area Operations: Ropeway Technician- Electrical Certificate Ski Area Operations: Ropeway Technician- Mechanical Certificate Ski Area Operations: Ropeway Maintenance Technician Certificate Ski Patrol Operations Certificate Snow Sports Industries America (SIA) Certificate

◇Colorado Mountain College -Improving and Enhancing their Curriculums and Degrees Offered -Limited Bachelors Options -Lack of Variety with Higher Level Degrees (Bachelors and Associates) PROPOS AL -Over-extensive Certificate Offerings -Internship/ Externship Programs -Creates a direct pipeline from Colorado Mountain College to the Garfield Workforce -Efforts focused on Professional and Business Service Sectors

REFERENCES • Base Analysis – 2019 Base All Counties. xlxs • Businesses for All Industries in Garfield County, CO table Database. USA. com • Colorado Mountain College Website, 2020 • Colorado State Demography Office, Print Date: 09/17/2020 • Department of Labor and Employment (QCEW), Print Date: 09/17/2020 • Location Quotient - Garfield Total Estimated Jobs 2001 -19. xlsx

CSU HONOR PLEDGE • "I have not given, received, or used any unauthorized assistance. " • Justin Smith • Anna Harvey • Ben Wilson