GROCERY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CITY OF FOREST GROVE

GROCERY RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS CITY OF FOREST GROVE JANUARY 2018

GENERAL FINDINGS §GROCERY TRADE AREAS REFLECT GROCER VIEW OF MARKET, NOT JURISDICTIONAL LINES §GTA FOREST GROVE INCLUDES CORNELIUS, BANKS, AND RURAL AREAS §GROCERY MARKET IN FLUX § Specialty and discount grocers capturing an increasing share of demand § Amazon’s entry into market §FOREST GROVE § Current demographics consistent with mid-market, discount, ethnic, and superstores § Marginal growth has more favorable demographics for specialty § Demand for second full-service store in a five to ten year window

GROCERY LANDSCAPE METRO AREA

GROCERY LANDSCAPE WEST WASHINGTON COUNTY

NEW GROCERY STORES

COMPARISON OF GROCERY SERVICE LEVELS – PERIPHERAL COMMUNITIES

POTENTIAL FUTURE RESIDENTIAL GROWTH – FOREST GROVE & CORNELIUS

CURRENT RETAIL LEAKAGE GROCERY STORES

CURRENT COMMUTE PATTERNS FOREST GROVE RESIDENTS AND WORKERS

PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOMES ABOVE $75, 000

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT LEVELS CITY OF FOREST GROVE Forest Grove Graduate or professional degree 2000 2016 Bachelor's degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate (incl. GED) 9 th to 12 th grade, no diploma Less than 9 th grade 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500

PROJECTED GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR GROCERY GOODS

FINDINGS BY FORMAT

POTENTIAL SITES

SUMMARY FINDINGS § NO IMMEDIATE OPPPORTUNITY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POTENTIALLY AN ETHNIC GROCER § DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS LIKELY TO SUPPORT NEW GROCER OVER A FIVE TO TEN-YEAR HORIZON § SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A SPECIALTY GROCER, BUT NOT A SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITY § Emerging smaller formats may accelerate the ability of the local market to support additional grocery