Grade Inflation in Irish Universities 1994 2004 DCU

Grade Inflation in Irish Universities 1994 -2004 DCU April 8 2008 1

Grade Increase n Rate of first class and 2. 1 awards across the seven universities between 1994 -2004 2

Percent First Class Honours in Primary Degrees (1994 -2004) 3

Increase in % First Class (1994 -04) 4

Percent 2. 1 Honours in Primary Degrees (1994 -2004) 5

Increase in % 2. 1 (1994 -2004) 6

Percentage Change in Rate of Firsts between 1994 -96 and 2002 -04 7

Percentage Change in Rate of 2. 1 awards between 94 -96 and 02 -04 8

Summary of Increase n n n Firsts +76% (02 -04 vs. 94 -96) 2. 1 s + 21. 4% (02 -04 vs. 94 -96) 1994: No university over 10% firsts 2004: No university under 10% firsts with one over 15% and another over 20% Firsts: 7% in 1994 n 17% in 2005 n 9

Does Grade Increase = Inflation n n Have the learning abilities/motivation of students improved sufficiently? Has the teaching/education of students improved sufficiently? OR n Have standards declined? 10

Signs from elsewhere - Institutes of Technology n Grade Increase 94 -96 to 02 -04 +38% Distinctions in National Certificates n +42% Distinctions in National Diplomas n +52% First Class In Bachelors Degrees n n Change in Minimum CAO Points n Proportion of courses with points below: 300 15% (1991) 25% (2000) 350 62% (1991) 83% (2000) 400 85% (1991) 97% (2000) 11

How predictive of college grades are CAO points? n Unpublished NUI Study (2004) UCD, UCC, NUIG, NUIM n Arts, Commerce, Science and Law n Graduates in 2003 and 2004 n n Findings +505 points vs. <405 = 3 times rate of 1/2. 1 n 405 - 450 points = 7% firsts n <405 points = 3% firsts n 12

Minimum CAO Points for Universities (92/93 vs. 98/01) 13

Do Minimum Points Predict Typical Points? n Study on 2002 figures for all university courses Correlation between minimum and median Points (r =. 8969) n Correlation between minimum points and number of students admitted ( r=. 04662) n 14

Overall CAO Points 95 -06: Grade Inflation at LC level? 15

Extrapolation n Over 50% increase in potential entrants with 400+ points between 1995 and 2006 Evidence that similar increase occurred between early 1990 s and early 2000 s If this represents grade inflation, it counters the real impact of higher minimum points for university courses 16

Increased Student Motivation? n Hypothetical Influences Selection effects – fewer less motivated students advancing to LC and College? n Greater competition for limited employment opportunities? n Less focus on other activities? n Part-time work n Socialising n Sport etc. n 17

Inter-University Comparisons n n n Are differences between Universities in percentages of firsts and 2. 1 s awarded explicable through differences in the calibre of students they attract? Cases of DCU and NUIM. DCU – highest rate of upper grades n n n Top of table in firsts and 2. 1 s in 6/10 yrs Continued high rate in 05 and 06 NUIM – highest rate of grade increase n n 7. 8 fold increase in firsts and 2. 2 in 2. 1 s Further very large increases in 05 and 06 18

Entrance Requirements DCU vs. All Universities 19

Change in Entrance Requirements at NUIM n n n Upward trajectory started in 1998 Comparison of 1994 entrants with 2001 (graduates in 1997 and 2004) 1994 – 4 courses (340 -370 min points) 2001 – 15 courses (3 account for circa 80% of students; 2 same points, 1 lower) 2002 – 5 courses with points >370 (total of 56 entrants out of 1226) 20

DCU & NUIM Continuing Trend n DCU – Firsts: 25. 45% in 2005 n 21. 19% in 2006 n n NUIM – Firsts 19. 96% in 2005 n 18. 3% in 2006 n 21

Dangers of Grade Inflation n n The ceiling effect – lack of discrimination at the top Self-perpetuating momentum Competition n Impact on student performance n n Drift from objective standards or criteria Impact on education Qualification devaluation/inflation 22

Whence grade inflation? n Universalisation of higher education n n Egalitarian zeitgeist Drive towards institutional growth n n n Pressures to attract and retain students Contagion Effects Funding Models n n Normal distribution of learning ability Digging deeper to fill places Unit costing Lack of either system or culture to maintain standards 23

Network for Irish Educational Standards n Data and research papers by Martin O’Grady, Simon Quinn and Brendan Guilfoyle on www. stopgradeinflation. ie n Network for Irish Educational Standards n Research, information, opinion welcome n Join the network for updates 24