Geopolitics Politics Among Nations A Definition of Geopolitics

Geopolitics – “Politics Among Nations”

A Definition of Geopolitics • Geopolitics is the interplay among geography, power, politics, and international relations on the earth’s surface. Geopolitics brings locational considerations, environmental contexts, territorial ideas and arrangements, and spatial assumptions to the fore. Geopolitics helps us understand the spatial power arrangements that shape international relations. Fouberg, Erin H. , et al. H. J. Human Geography: People, Place, and Culture. 11 th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2015. Print.

Geopolitics and Stratfor • Stratfor – Who are they? Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. • Stratfor’s methodology: “We study the way in which geography and other forces constrain and shape people and nations. By analyzing the forces that affect world leaders, we can understand often predict their actions and behaviors, which are far more limited than they might otherwise appear. While the media concentrates on the subjective desires of leaders voiced at press conferences, Stratfor concentrates on the various constraints upon their behavior — geographical, political, economic — that are concrete but never admitted to publicly. Geopolitics allows us to place an event or action within a larger framework so that we can determine its potential significance, as well as identify connections among seemingly disparate trends.

Hans Morgenthau’s “Permanent and Nonpermanent Elements of National Power” • Permanent Elements of Power - climate - demography - geography/topography - hydrology - natural resource endowment (including petroleum) • Nonpermanent Elements of Power - political system (legitimacy, leadership, diplomacy) - military (quality and quantity of armed forces, including leadership) - social and economic (how the population is organized and mobilized) - industrial capacity (technology/informational usage) - psychological national character and morale (“degree of determination”)

Examples • “Geopolitics of the United States: An Inevitable Empire” - which elements are at work and how? • “Geopolitics of China: A Great Power Enclosed” - which elements are at work and how? Geopolitics of Afghanistan? -which elements are at work and how?

Forms of Political Power • • • Hard and soft power Coercion/force Legitimacy Bargaining Bribing Blackmail/whistleblowing

Unequal Resources Activity Follow-Up Vocabulary • • • Law of scarcity Interdependence Conflict Trade Locational advantages Levels of Economic Development- Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, Quaternary, Quinary – (see definitions on SOD vocab handout)

Geopolitics and Strategic Resources: Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels • Energy demand has doubled over the last 30 years and is expected to rise by 60% by 2020 • Coal, petroleum, natural gas - provide 85% of commercial industry energy and produce 80% of CO 2 emissions • Natural gas is the cleanest burning of the fossil fuels – US, Russia, Persian Gulf countries have abundant supplies Europe is “held hostage” by Russian gas supplies • U. S. has 5% of the world’s population, uses 25% of world’s resources and produces 50% of world’s solid waste • China, India, and other emerging economies are creating increased demand for fossil fuels. China produces most emissions, U. S. produces most emissions per capita

Oil • • Petroleum (crude oil) – the most geopolitically important commodity any structural change in oil markets will reverberate throughout the world Oil provides 40% of the world’s energy Largest oil reserves are in Saudi Arabia and in countries around the Persian Gulf – slightly over 2/3 of the world’s proven reserves • Fun fact - According to National Geographic, 1 lb of beef takes ¾ gallon of oil to produce

Oil • OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 12 countries • OPEC controls 81% of proven crude oil reserves with 70. 6% in the Middle East(ME)- Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE Non Middle East members - Nigeria, Venezuela, Algeria, Libya, Angola, Ecuador • When prices are high OPEC increases production and when they are low it cuts production - Supply and Demand • Key “chokepoint”- Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf • It is in the US and global economic interests to keep the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. • Currently a significant drop in oil prices because of increased production in the U. S. , Canada, and other non-OPEC countries

Oil Effects of dip in prices on OPEC members: Short Term Problems Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are the only OPEC members with enough flexibility to reduce oil production without hurting because of deep cash reserves. None of the other members are in a financial position to take oil production offline. Libya, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela all need maximum oil output and high prices to finance their budgets and social spending programs. Long Term continual increase in production from US and Canada and other non-OPEC countries Saudi Arabia has made no cuts in order to drive prices down to hurt US producers and Iran- SA can handle the lower prices better– End of OPEC? End of sanctions against Iran because of nuclear deal has led to increase production

Resource Curse/Paradox of Plenty • Countries dependent on revenue from oil exports can be corrupt and/or dictatorial because the government leaders control the oil revenue and use it to enrich themselves and buy weapons to enforce their rule and protect themselves. • When the price of oil goes up governments can use the money to pay off their population with better benefits. When the price goes down there may be more unrest and opposition. • American Values vs. American Interests

New Sources of Oil Canadian Tar Sands Pros: Almost as much as Saudi Arabia’s reserves. Close supply for the US. Cons: Environmental problems associated with extraction and processing. Controversy over Keystone Pipeline route from Canada to Texas Gulf Coast—fear of oil spill over Ogallala aquifer in Nebraska. Releases carcinogens into soils, water. Three times the global warming emissions as conventional oil production (James Hansen, director of NASA Goddard Institute “game over for climate”) Obama rejected it on November 6, 2015.

Source: National Resources Defense Council

Caspian Sea and Central Asia Pros: Non-Middle East/Russian source Cons: Landlocked- must build pipelines across multiple countries. Can involve putting U. S. interests over U. S. values - support for dictatorships/corrupt govts. “Great Game” competition for access- China, Russia, US, Europe http: //www. newgreatgame. com/excerpts. htm

New Sources of Oil cont’ Deep Water Drilling Pros: Abundant new reserves being found in Gulf of Mexico, the Arctic, off the coast of Brazil, and various African nations Cons: Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill in 2010 - approximately 5 million barrels; environmental disaster African Sources Pros: Non ME/Russian; Provides income for poor nations Cons: Government corruption and support for dictators—can put U. S. interests over U. S. values Causes internal conflicts – Sudan, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea; China’s interests

Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking) • Pressurized fluids are pumped into shale formations fracturing the rock allowing oil and/or natural gas to escape. • Has led to old fields becoming new again. The US has greatly benefited from this technology. Pros: reduced oil and gas prices- stimulate the economy less need for Middle East /Russian sources Some estimate US oil independence by 2020 - US could be in a position to put values before interests? Cons: Massive water usage 3 -8 million gallons per well Water and air pollution from fracking chemicals, methane Contamination of drinking water Induced seismicity- microearthquakes Unrest in oil exporting countries because of lowered oil prices http: //www. cnn. com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texasmammoth-oil-discovery/

Standing Rock Sioux Protest the Dakota Access Pipeline http: //m. motherjones. com/media/2016/11/short-film-standing-rock-dakota-access-pipelineamerica-divided

Competition for mineral and fish resources raise tensions in this region. UN court ruled this summer against China’s claims. China continues to “build islands. ”

Climate Change and Global Warming • 2015 was the hottest year on record. 2016 might beat it. • http: //www. nytimes. com/2016/11/15/science/2016 -hottest-year-on-record. html? module=Watching. Portal&region=c-column-middle-spanregion&pg. Type=Homepage&action=click&media. Id=none&state=standard&content. Placement=5&version=internal&content. Collection=www. nytimes. com&content. Id=http%3 A%2 F%2 F www. nytimes. com%2 F 2016%2 F 11%2 F 15%2 Fscience%2 F 2016 -hottest-year-on-record. html&event. Name=Watching-article-click • Paris Climate Agreement signed last year and went in to force this month. • All countries agree to set targets to cut emissions by a certain amount and by a certain time. Voluntary agreement. Developed world agrees to help the developing world with money, technology, and carbon sink investments. • President Trump may undermine US pledges. US accounts for 20% of cuts by 2030