Chapter 3 Growth and Accumulation Introduction Per capita

Chapter 3 Growth and Accumulation

Introduction • • • Per capita GDP = income person has been increasing over time in industrialized nations, yet remains stagnant in many developing nations (Ex. U. S. vs. Ghana) Growth accounting explains what part of growth in total output is due to growth in different factors of production Growth theory helps us understand how economic decisions determine the accumulation of factors of production • • [Insert Figure 3 -1 here] Ex. How does the rate of saving today affect the stock of capital in the future? 3 -2

Growth: Some Basic Facts • Little growth in per-capita output before the Industrial Revolution • • • Rapid growth in output and standard of living since the Industrial Revolution • • • Per-capita incomes in developed countries increased 50 -300 fold in Western Europe and the US during the past 200 years. The Great Divergence: little difference in per capita incomes until the Industrial Revolution, on-going divergence since then • • Population growth rather than output growth Most people attained little more than subsistence income China and India richer than Europe for most of the past 2000 years Growth miracles: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Chile, China and Botswana Growth disasters: Argentina and Sub-saharan Africa. 3 -3

The Production Function Defines the relationship between inputs and output Can use the production function to study two sources of output growth: • • 1. 2. Increases in inputs (N, K) Increases in productivity (technology) If N and K are the only inputs, the production function is (1), where output depends upon inputs and technology (A) • • • An increase in A = increase in productivity output increases for given levels N and K Assume MPN > 0 and MPK > 0, so that an increase in inputs increase in output 3 -4

Growth Accounting Equation • • Equation (1) relates the level of output to the level of inputs and technology Transform the production function into growth rate form • The growth accounting equation is: (2) • • Growth rates of K and N are weighted by their respective income shares, so that each input contributes an amount equal to the product of the input’s growth rate and their share of income to output growth Technological progress growth of total factor productivity: increase in output that results from improvements in methods of production, for given levels of N and K 3 -5

Growth Accounting: Examples • • Suppose = 0. 25 and (1 - ) = 0. 75, growth rates of N and K are 1. 2% and 3% respectively, and the rate of technological progress is 1. 5%, then output growth is: Since labor share is greater than capital share, a 1% point increase in labor increases output by more than a 1% point increase in capital • Suppose the growth rate of capital doubles from 3% to 6%. What is the growth rate of output? Output increases by less than a percentage point after a 3% point increase in the growth rate of capital • If the growth rate of labor doubled to 2. 4% instead, output growth would increase from 3. 15% to 4. 05% 3 -6

Growth In Per Capita Output • • Important to consider per capita output/income since total values might be misleading if population is large (e. g. compare China and Luxembourg) Income for an average person is estimated by GDP per capita, measuring individual standard of living Traditional to use lower case letters for per capita values , where k is the capital-labor ratio Then, and 3 -7

Growth Accounting Equation In Per Capita Terms • To translate the growth accounting equation into per capita terms, subtract the population growth rate from both sides of equation (2) and rearrange terms: (3) • Given that equation then becomes , the growth accounting (4) 3 -8

Factors Other Than N and K: Human Capital • The production function, and thus equations (2) and (4), omit a long list of inputs other than N and K • • While N and K are the most important factors of production, others matter Investment in human capital (H) through schooling and on-the-job training is an important determinant of output in many economies • With the addition of H, the production function becomes (5) • Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) suggest that H contributes equally to Y as K and N factor shares all equal to 1/3 3 -9

Factors Other Than N and K: Human Capital • • Figure 3 -2 (a) illustrates a positive relationship between the rate of investment and per capita output and income across many nations Figure 3 -2 (b) illustrates a similar relationship between human capital, using years of schooling as a proxy for H, and per capita output and income across many selected nations [Insert Figure 3 -2 here] 3 -10

Growth Theory: The Neoclassical Model Neoclassical growth theory (Robert Solow) focuses on K accumulation and its link to savings decisions Begin with a simplifying assumption: no technological progress economy reaches a long run level of output and capital = steady state equilibrium • • • The steady state equilibrium for the economy is the combination of per capita GDP and per capital where the economy will remain at rest, so that per capita economic variables are no longer changing : Growth theory in three broad steps: • 1. 2. 3. Examine the economic variables that determine the economy’s steady state Study the transition from the economy’s current position to the steady state Add technological progress to the model 3 -11

Production Function in Per-capita Form • • • Recall production function: Y = AF(K, N) Assume constant returns to scale and divide both sides by N: Y/N = AF(K, N)/N Y/N = AF(K/N, N/N) y = AF(k, 1)=Af(k) Example: Cobb-Douglas PF Y = AK N 1 - or y = Ak 3 -12

Determinants of the Economy’s Steady State • • The production function in per capita form is y = f(k) (6) Assumptions about neoclassical PF: • • [Insert Fig 3 -3 here] With zero inputs, output is zero: f(0) = 0 As capital increases, output increases: MPK>0 or f’(k) > 0 But output increases at a decreasing rate diminishing MPK: f’’(k) < 0 The curve is nearly vertical close to origin but eventually becomes nearly flat 3 -13

Steady State • An economy is in a steady state when per capita income and capital are constant • Capital is constant when investment required to provide new capital for new workers and to replace worn out machines equals savings generated by the economy 3 -14

Savings and Investment • The investment required to maintain a given level of k depends on the population growth rate and the depreciation rate (n and d respectively) Assume population grows at a constant rate, , so the economy needs nk of investment for new workers • Assume depreciation is a constant fraction, d, of the capital stock, adding dk of needed investment The total required investment to maintain a constant level of k is (n+d)k • • If savings is a constant function of income, s, then per capital savings is sy • If income equals production, then sy = sf(k) 3 -15

Solution for the Steady State • • • k is the excess of saving over required I: (7) In the steady state k = 0 Denote steady state values y* and k*, satisfying [Insert Figure 3 -4] (8) • In Figure 3 -4, savings and required investment are equal at point C with a steady state level of capital k*, and steady state level of income y* at point D 3 -16

The Growth Process • • The critical elements in the transition from the initial k to k* are the rate of savings and investment compared to the rate of population growth and depreciation Suppose start at k 0: Savings exceeds the investment required to maintain a constant level of k Insert Figure 3 -4 here (again) k increases until it reaches k* where savings equals required investment 3 -17

The Growth Process Implications: Insert Figure 3 -4 here (again) Countries with identical savings rates, rates of population growth, and technology should converge to equal incomes, although the convergence process may be slow 2. At the steady state, k and y are constant, so aggregate income grows at the same rate as the rate of population growth, n Steady state growth rate is not affected by s 1. 3 -18

An Increase in the Savings Rate • • According to neoclassical growth theory, savings does not affect the growth rate in the long run WHY? Suppose savings rate increases from s to s’: [Insert Figure 3 -5 here] When s increases, at k*, thus k increases to k** (and y to y**) at point C’ • At C’, the economy returns to a steady state growth rate of n Increase in s will increase levels of y* and k*, but not the growth rate of y • 3 -19

The Transition Process: s to s’ • In the transition process, the higher savings rate increases the growth rate of output and the growth rate of per capita output • • [Insert Figure 3 -6 here] Follows from fact that k increases from k* to k** only way to achieve an increase in k is for k to grow faster than the labor force and depreciation Figure 3 -6 (a) shows the transition from y* to y** between t 0 and t 1 • • After the savings rate increases, so does savings and investment, resulting in an increase in k and y y continues to increase at a decreasing rate until it reaches new steady state at y** 3 -20

The Transition Process: s to s’ • Figure 3 -6 (b) illustrates the growth rate of Y between t 0 and t 1 • • [Insert Figure 3 -6 here again] The increase in s increases the growth rate of Y due to the faster growth in capital, As capital accumulates, the growth rate returns to n 3 -21

Population Growth • An increase in the population growth rate is illustrated by an increase in (n+d)k rotate line up and to the left • • An increase in n reduces the steady state level of k and y An increase in n increases the steady state rate of growth of aggregate output The • decline in per capita output as a consequence of increased population growth is a phenomenon observed in many developing countries (discussed in Chapter 4) Conversely, a decrease in the population growth rate is illustrated by a decrease in (n+d)k rotate line down and to the right • • A decrease in n increases the steady state level of k and y A decrease in n decreases the steady state rate of growth of aggregate output 3 -22

Consumption and the Golden Rule • • Higher output need not translate into higher consumption Consumption = difference between output and savings: c = f(k) – sf(k) In the steady state: c* = f(k*) – (n+d)k* Consumption is maximized when f’(k*) = (n+d) or MPK (k*) = (n+d) Insert Figure 3 -4 here (again) 3 -23

Growth with Exogenous Technological Change • • • Thus far have assumed technology is constant, or , for simplicity, but need to incorporate to explain long term growth theory If rate of growth is defined as , the production function, y = Af(k), increases at g percent per year (Fig. 3 -7) Savings function grows in a parallel fashion, and y* and k* increase over time [Insert Figure 3 -7 here] 3 -24

How Is A Incorporated? The technology parameter can enter the production function in several ways: • Technology can be labor augmenting, whereby new technology increases the productivity of labor 1. • Equation (4) becomes and y* and k* both • increase at the rate of technological progress, E. g. Cobb-Douglas PF: Y = AK N 1 - Technology can augment all factors, i. e. represent total factor productivity Y = AF(K, N) 2. • Equation (4) is so that 3 -25