64 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Understanding Hurricane Response

64 th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Understanding Hurricane Response for Improved Stakeholder/User Reaction David Caldwell, Director Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration March 2010

Social Science and the NWS Potential Benefits Goals: • Better understand societal response to NWS forecasts and warnings • Apply this understanding towards provision of clear, actionable information, geared towards user need – Interdisciplinary interactions will enhance this information, e. g, : • Sociology • Economics • Communication • Move the NWS from a good agency to a great agency 2

Integrating Social Science: Why Now? • For the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons: - Hurricane forecasts were accurate and timely - And yet there was $175 B and more than 5000 deaths in the Atlantic Basin - Many did not (or were not able to) heed warnings - Could our messages have been framed to ensure more timely and effective response? 2004 2005 3

Integrating Social Science Why Now? Where We Stand: • There is little empirical information available on: - Watch/warning use in evacuation decision making - Economic value of current forecasts - How the public and partners receive and act upon NWS information 4

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 1) Household Evacuation Decision-making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment (NCAR-SIP and NOAA - completed) - Examined perception of hurricane forecasts/warnings Assessed potential value of improved information Focused on evacuation decisions Assessed viability of survey methods 5

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 2) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Socio-Economic Impacts Assessment (NCAR-SIP in collaboration with HFIP – underway) - Assess EM’s needs for and use of intensity information Assessing how households use intensity forecasts Appling broad social science findings to HFIP project with NCAR Societal Impacts Program 6

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 3) Collaborative Research: Examining the Hurricane Warning System: Content, Channels, Comprehension (NCAR-SIP, Jamie Rhome, NHC, Mark De. Maria, NESDIS, Gene Hafele, MIC, WFO Houston – underway) - Hurricane advisory/warning development process/content Study channels of communication among: - - Forecasters Electronic media EM community Public Reactions of coastal and at-risk populations 7

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 4) Warning Decisions in Extreme Weather Events: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach (NCAR-SIP, L. Mooney, WFO Denver/Boulder, Retired - underway) - - Roles of uncertainty in warning process - Dissemination of uncertainty info - Impacts on decision-making Factors impacting decision making during extreme events Characterize public preferences for different attributes of forecast and warning information. 8

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 5) Investigation of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans: National Weather Service Environmental Risk Communications across Cultures (NOAA NWS Office of Communications - underway) - Study focused on communicating risk to diverse, vulnerable populations - Investigating the role various cultural variables (race/ethnicity, culture, socioeconomic status, and geography) play when communicating risk. - Produce communication training on expressing risk across cultures 9

Integrating Social Science: Example Studies 6) Assessing Current Storm Surge Information from the Public Perspective (NOAA NWS Office of Communications – funding requested) - Explore/assess public awareness and understanding of storm surge and associated information - Determine needed approaches to improve communication and support decision-making with respect to extratropical and tropical cyclone storm surge 10

Integrating Social Science: Where do We Go From Here? We must find ways to integrate social science into our forecast and warning mission so we can: – Improve call-to-action statements to achieve intended response – Improve expression of uncertainty in our information – Better understand the economic value/estimation of forecast improvements – Better communicate risk – Better understand how social networks effectuate response (race/ethnicity, culture, socioeconomic status) – Improve web design that enables us to more effectively convey the message – Effectively use social media 11

Integrating Social Science: Summary • NOAA’s National Weather Service is engaging social science experts to: - Improve information and services - Reach out to diverse at-risk populations - Communicate more clearly - Improve societal response to save lives - Enhance critical partnerships with EMs, media, and the private sector" 12