USChinaASEAN Relations in the South China Sea Dr

US-China-ASEAN Relations in the South China Sea Dr. Nong Hong, Associate Professor Research Center for Oceans Law and Policy National Institute for the South China Sea Studies December 4, 2013, Manila 1

Issues to cover China South China Sea ASEAN US 2

Post-Do. C Development in the SCS n Implication of Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (Do. C) in 2002 n Development in 2009: Clarity or Setback? Ø Philippines Territorial Sea Baseline Bill Ø Submission with the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the continental Shelf (CLCS). Ø “Impeccable” Ø Development in 2010: US-China spat Ø Media report on China’s “Core Interests” Statement Ø US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement at ARF in July n Development in 2011: Between claimant states… n Development in 2012: US’s Pivot to Asia? n Development in 2013: Arbitration case, Co. C?

Understanding China’s claim from a legal perspective Legal basis for sovereignty of Nansha (Spratlys) Islands China’s claims • Sovereignty • Sovereign right defined by UNCLOS • Historic rights • • Discovery Prescription Critical Date (1933 and 1939) Impact of 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty • Maritime legislation • Impact of UNCLOS 4

Evolution of China’s Policy on the SCS n Pre-1970 s: Announcement of sovereignty n From early 1970 s to late 1980 s: Announcement of sovereignty + Resuming control of some features n Since 1990 s: Shelving the dispute, promoting cooperation n 2002 -2009: from bilateral to multilateral, interaction with ASEAN n Post-2009: Passive response

A Review on China-ASEAN Relations • • China perceived as a threat Political Settlement of Cambodian problem 1991 China as a ‘consultative partner’, and ‘Dialogue Partner’ China’s role in ASEAN Regional Forum China’s role in the ASEAN-initiated Asia Europe Meeting China ASEAN Plus Three and ASEAN+1 Summit ASEAN-China Free Trade Area ASEAN-China Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation • 2002 DOC and 2011 Implementation Guidelines • Consultation process of Co. C

From Bilateral to Multilateral: China’s Changing Approach to the South China Sea Issues China • Driver of changes in China and end of Cold War • China’s “good neighbor policy” ASEAN • Increasing political and economic influence of ASEAN • Increasing interdependence in Southeast Asia • ASEAN way of slow, informal talks and negotiations as catalyst for change

Uncertainty in ASEAN-China Relations on the SCS Issues

What is the nature of the escalation of the SCS dispute since 2009? Among the claimants • Old story continues (island regime, historic vs. modern claims…) External players • “core interest” vs. “national interest” • “It is all about China…” • New dimensions (CLCS submissions, national legislations, draw additional international attention and support ) • “internationalism” “regionalism” “bilateralism” • “Freedom of navigation”

US’s Role in ASEAN－China Relations • Do not take side? Resources Management • ‘Core Interest’ vs. ‘national interest’: who has changed? Historic Concepts Islands Regime Freedom of Navigation • ‘Freedom of Navigation’ : A Political Excuse or a Legal Ambiguity? Other Maritime Regimes Marine Environment Debate: Balancing regional powers or jeopardizing the existing • Pivot to Asia ASEAN+1 Framework?

Within ASEAN • • Malaysia, Indonesia Vietnam, the Philippines Singapore, Thailand Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei Question: Internal disagreement or unity?

Future of ASEAN+China+US Relations in SCS context • What is the real obstacle of reaching a COC? • Joint Development Regime: how to implement? • Resort to third-party forum: legal status of the Spratlys features. • China to clarify its claim • US’s role: how about leaving responsibility to indigenous power?

Thank you Questions? Comments?