UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change UKIP and the

UKIP and Immigration Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, e. kaufmann@bbk. ac. uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www. sneps. net

Data • Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40, 000 people, 2009 -12. – 460 UKIP supporters or voters – Lower sample, but concentrated 2009 -onward – longitudinal • Local Election Data, 2010 -12 – UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940 – Census predictors

Former Party, UKIP Supporters, 2010 -12 35 31, 41 30 25 22, 51 20 15 13, 61 10 7 6 5 0 Con Lab Lib Source: Understanding Society, 2009 -12 UKIP None

UKIP: Not BNP in Blazers BNP+ Public officials don't care No say in Govt Male English Identifier All friends are White British Degree No qualifications Political beliefs important for identity Younger Age Band Population density (ward) % Minority in ward Belong to a Religion (i. e. Christian) Can trust most people Semi & Routine occupation Social Housing Profession important for identity Difficult finances Unemployed Broadsheet reader % Minority in LA Change in % minority in ward, 2001 -11 White British Isolation (LA) UKIP 71. 7 74. 9 69. 7 77. 0 62. 3 3. 0 31. 9 40. 3 58. 8 25. 2 12. 8 31. 9 16. 7 46. 0 26. 7 62. 8 23. 2 12. 8 2. 7 15. 3 5. 9 4. 3 All White 74. 6 72. 4 60. 2 82. 0 68. 2 9. 0 29. 4 40. 9 27. 2 22. 3 10. 3 52. 3 33. 1 30. 0 11. 5 74. 8 12. 2 3. 0 8. 8 12. 9 4. 7 4. 1 Gap 48. 6 49. 2 46. 0 68. 0 56. 4 18. 5 21. 8 33. 3 42. 5 24. 9 12. 0 51. 2 39. 8 25. 0 13. 2 74. 1 9. 7 4. 4 13. 3 13. 9 4. 7 4. 1 26. 0 23. 2 14. 0 11. 8 9. 5 7. 6 31. 6 2. 9 2. 5 20. 4 16. 0 15. 2 12. 0 11. 0 9. 8 6. 1 2. 4 1. 2 0. 2

Clusters in UKIP • Southern, Tory-dominated ward, rural, homeowner [traditional UKIP base] • Lower class, low education, older, council house/renter [‘left behind’] • 2 ideological clusters

Local Council Elections UKIP Census Index: • • • Total Population (ward) % Retired (ward) % Degrees (ward) % No qualifications (ward) % English as a Share of White British (LA) Low Deprivation (LA) Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010 -12

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i. e. Barking) UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration

Does UKIP own immigration? • UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP • 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority. • UKIP long way to go to reach most antiimmigration voters

UKIP a Coalition • UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP • Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration • Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class? • Tension between rural base and urban working class

UKIP: Rural Traditionalists or Working-Class Populists?

e. kaufmann@bbk. ac. uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www. sneps. net