Responding to Drought and other Conditions on the

Responding to Drought (and other) Conditions on the Colorado River Terry Fulp Director, Lower Colorado Region Urban Water Institute February 9, 2017

Topics • Overview of the Basin • State of the system • Drought response activities • Work with Mexico • Summary/Questions 2

Natural Flow Colorado River at Lees Ferry Gaging Station, Arizona Water Year 1906 to 2017

Water Budget at Lake Mead Given basic apportionments in the Lower Basin, the allotment to Mexico, and an 8. 23 maf release from Lake Powell, Lake Mead storage declines § Inflow = 9. 0 maf (release from Powell + side inflows) § Outflow = - 9. 6 maf (AZ, CA, NV, and Mexico delivery + downstream regulation and gains/losses) § Mead evaporation loss = - 0. 6 maf § Balance = - 1. 2 maf Data based on long-term averages

Upper Basin Snowpack and Forecasted Inflow as of Feb 6, 2017 Forecasted 2017 April-July Inflow 134% of average Forecasted Water Year 2017 Inflow 122% of average Snowpack is 155% of median

Colorado River Basin Storage (as of February 5, 2017) Reservoir Percent Full Storage (MAF) Elevation (Feet) Lake Powell 46% 11. 30 3, 595 Lake Mead 40% 10. 57 1, 087 Total System Storage* 49% 29. 44 NA *Total system storage was 29. 36 maf or 49% this time last year

State of the System (Water Years 1999 -2017)1, 2

Key Policy Decisions 1999 - 43 CFR 414, Offstream Storage and ICUA Development/Release Rule 2007 - Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead ROD 2001 - Colorado River Interim Surplus Guidelines ROD 2005 - Lower Colorado River Multi. Species Conservation Plan ROD 1990 s 2000 s 2010 - Minute 318, Adjustment of Delivery Schedules for Water Allotted to Mexico as a Result of Infrastructure Damage Caused by the April 2010 Earthquake in the Mexicali Valley 2012 - Minute 319, Interim International Cooperative Measures in the Colorado River Basin through 2017, Extension of Minute 318 2010 s 2014 - MOU for Pilot Drought Response Actions 2003 - Colorado River Water Delivery Agreement, Federal Quantification Settlement Agreement (QSA) Timeline not to scale 9 2014 - Agreement for a Pilot Program for Funding the Creation of System Water through Voluntary Conservation and Reductions in Use

Interim Guidelines for Operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead • In place for an interim period (through 2026) • Key provisions: – Operation for Lake Powell and Lake Mead is specified throughout the full range of operation – Strategy for shortages in the Lower Basin is specified, including a provision for additional shortages if warranted – Mechanism (Intentionally Created Surplus or ICS) is established to encourage efficient and flexible water use in the Lower Basin

Lake Mead Historical Elevations 1, 300' Lake Mead Capacity Lake Mead entered the ongoing drought at 97% of capacity. 1, 200' Lake Mead reached elevation 1, 071. 61' in July 2016 - its lowest elevation since it was filled in the 1930 s. 1, 100' First Shortage Tier Second Shortage Tier Third Shortage Tier and Reconsultation under the 2007 Interim Guidelines 1, 000' 26 20 24 25 20 20 23 22 20 20 21 20 20 20 19 20 18 17 20 20 16 15 20 20 14 13 20 20 12 20 11 20 10 20 09 08 20 20 07 06 20 20 05 04 20 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 20

Minute 319 • Bi-national agreement through Dec, 2017 • Promotes sharing, conserving and storing water • Demonstrates shared commitment to cooperation and partnership • Components include: – Ability to defer delivery of water/ICMA – High/low reservoir operation – Water for the Environment. ICMA->ICS Exchange Pilot – Study of future joint projects • Status of Minute 32 x November 20, 2012 Signing Ceremony

Basin-wide Pilot System Conservation Program • Funders include Reclamation, three municipal water agencies in the Lower Basin, and one municipal water agency in the Upper Basin • Provides funding for voluntary pilot projects to create system water to benefit storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell • At end of CY 2016, agreements in place to conserve approximately 100 kaf of water in the Lower Basin Website: https: //www. usbr. gov/lc/region/programs/Pilot. Sys. Cons. Prog/pilotsystem. html 25

Lower Basin MOU for Pilot Drought Response Actions • Agreement among Reclamation, three municipal water agencies (SNWA, CAWCD, and MWD), and the Lower Basin States • 2014 -2017 goal to generate 740, 000 acre-feet of water to benefit Lake Mead storage through voluntary actions • Total goal from 2014 -2019 to generate 1. 5 to 3. 0 maf of water in total to benefit Lake Mead storage • Commitment to continue to discuss operational flexibility and long-term sustainability in the Lower Basin 26

Lower Basin Drought Contingency Planning (“DCP”, “DCP+”) • Goal - reduce the risk of reaching critical elevations in Lake Mead • Discussions ongoing: – “Voluntary” contributions (in addition to shortages in the 2007 Interim Guidelines) from AZ, CA, NV – Enhanced “storage program” (i. e. , ICS) in Lake Mead – Additional activities 2017 -2019 in AZ (i. e. , “DCP +) to reduce chance of shortage @ elevation 1075’ (via compensated and uncompensated reductions)

Risk of Lake Mead Reaching Critically Low Elevations 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Risk as assessed when 2007 Interim Guidelines were adopted Comparative current risk assessment as of January 2017 based on full historical hydrologic record Adjusted current risk assessment as of January 2017 based on last 25 years of historical hydrology (i. e. , assuming last 25 years are representative of future hydrology) 2026

Risk of Lake Mead Reaching Critically Low Elevations With LB DCP, DCP+, and Minute 32 x Projected Probability of Lake Mead Elevation Less than 1, 025' in December 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Risk as assessed when 2007 Interim Guidelines were adopted Comparative current risk assessment as of January 2017 based on full historical hydrologic record Adjusted current risk assessment as of January 2017 assuming implemetation of Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, DCP+, and Minute 32 x 2026

Projected Future Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand

For further information: http: //www. usbr. gov/lc/region