NWS Burlington Drought Brief Vermont Drought Task Force

NWS Burlington Drought Brief Vermont Drought Task Force Meeting VEM EOC 22 August 2018 Jessica Neiles, Meteorologist National Weather Service – Burlington, VT 802 -863 -4279 (24 hr) 1

Outline • Drought Status • How did we get here? • Current conditions • Forecast 2

U. S. Drought Monitor About the USDM: • Five key indicators • Palmer Drought Index • Soil Moisture • Streamflow • Precipitation • Blends of other indicators • Local Input • Updated Weekly • Cutoff Tuesday • Released Thursday 3

About the US Drought Monitor Why don’t state drought declarations match the U. S. Drought Monitor categories? • A state’s drought status is a “call to action” based on the state’s assessment of what actions its residents and water users should be taking. • The US Drought Monitor is the “best analysis of current and future conditions” based on input from multiple agencies and stakeholders after considering a wide spectrum of indices and potential impacts. 4

U. S. Drought Monitor - Northeast August 14, 2018 June 19, 2018 5

Lake Champlain @ Burlington 6

Vermont Streamflow – 28 Day Average Valid August 21, 2018 Groundwater Streamflow 7

Palmer Drought Index The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is an index of the relative dryness or wetness affecting water sensitive economies. 8

Accumulated Precipitation: Burlington Thru 8/21 9

Accumulated Precipitation: Montpelier Thru 8/21 10

14 Day Rainfall Ending 8 am 8/20 11

30 Day Precipitation Deficit 12

60 Day Temperature Departure 13

90 Day Precipitation Deficit 14

Normal Rainfall by Month Steady decline headed into fall and winter 15

7 Day Precipitation Forecast 16

Precipitation: 8 -14 Day Outlook 17

Temperatures: 8 -14 Day Outlook 18

Precipitation: Three Month Outlook 19

Temperatures: 3 Month Outlook 20

Seasonal Drought Outlook 21

Eye on the Tropics 22

Questions? Web: http: //www. weather. gov/btv/ Phone (UNLISTED): (802) 863 -4279 or (802) 658 -0150 E-mail: nwsbtv. info@noaa. gov Facebook: https: //www. facebook. com/NWSBurlington Twitter: https: //twitter. com/NWSBurlington You. Tube: https: //www. youtube. com/NWSBurlington 23