Drought Chasing An NDMC Perspective on Future Drought

Drought Chasing: An NDMC Perspective on Future Drought Activities Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC

Acknowledgements Workshop Planning Committee (David Legler, Wayne Higgins, Kingste Mo, Mike Halpert, Mark Svoboda, Dave Gutzler, Ann Fiedler, Mike Hayes) Ann Fiedler, Nicole Wall Deb Wood NDMC staff and students Jacki Loomis Licorice International Holiday Inn

Nebraska (Here’s What I Said) Home of the Unicameral Home of the 6 th Great Lake Sandhills Kool-Aid, Cliff. Notes Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), Cabela’s, Union Pacific (World’s largest rail yard in North Platte), Valmont Industries

Nebraska (What I Did Not Say) BEEF Cranes Storms

Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma Gary Mc. Manus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008

Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC

Look Back…to Look Ahead Kelly Redmond: Where are we now? How did we get here? What is the historical perspective for the current situation? What are the most likely outcomes from the current situation? What is it going to be like next week, next month, next year…?

Look Back…to Look Ahead Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events

Look Back…to Look Ahead Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events

Prediction Response Mitigation Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision support

Risk and Impact Assessment “No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within the United States exists today. ” p. 5

Mitigation Planning Monitoring Supply augmentation Infrastructure improvements Demand reduction Education Communication Coordination Legislation

Mitigation Nebraska examples (1998 -2000 Drought Plan revision to incorporate mitigation strategies) Farm Crisis Hotline Soil Moisture Network Vulnerable Water Systems

Mitigation Council of Governors’ Policy Advisors (1997): The concept of mitigation will be difficult unless officials understand the economic impacts and the positive quantitative benefits of mitigation actions. Multihazard Mitigation Council Report (2005): “…a dollar spent…on hazard mitigation. . . provides the nation about $4 in future benefits. ” 1: 4 ratio

Act 238 (2007) $1 million appropriated for drought mitigation for each county 22 projects identified including: water system improvements, stormwater reclamation, ditch improvements, wildland fire, education, monitoring

The Trend Toward Local

River Basin Drought Planning Information

Additional Issues Gregg Garfin: “Growth” Colorado: 6 -25 acres going out of production every hour “Not whether Colorado will grow, but how!” Climate Change Temperature matters! Complexity Andrea Ray: “Conversation” NIDIS Individual Livelihoods

“There’s nothing more frightening than being without water. ” Mayor Campbell, Edina, MO, May 1989