REPUBLIC OF RWANDA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC

REPUBLIC OF RWANDA MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING – Macroeconomic Policy Unit 2010/11 Economic Performance Kigali, October 24, 2011

Outline Output and Prices External Performance Monetary Performance 2011 Outlook

Real Sector Performance 14. 0% Growth 12. 7% Prices EAC Countries 12. 8% Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 12. 0% 9. 7% 10. 0% Rwanda 0. 23 1. 09 2. 56 4. 98 4. 54 5. 82 Burundi 4. 1 4. 80 5. 00 8. 40 7. 50 8. 60 Tanzania 5. 6 6. 40 7. 50 8. 60 9. 70 10. 90 Kenya 4. 5 5. 42 6. 54 12. 05 12. 95 14. 49 Uganda 3. 1 5. 03 5. 96 14. 11 16. 00 15. 80 8. 4% 7. 1% 8. 0% 5. 0% 6. 0% 4. 0% 2. 0% 0. 0% 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Rebound in Services and Industry sectors, while a good season A and B harvest maintained the robust contribution of agriculture to GDP growth. Rise in prices attributed to: üHigher international food and fuel prices; üPoor agricultural harvest in the region; üLower agriculture output in Season A than expected on account of adverse weather conditions.

Real Sector Performance: 2010/11 GDP growth by sector Growth Rate 2009/10 2010/11 Agriculture 6. 0% 3. 2% Food Crop 7% 3% Industry 1. 2% 12. 7% Mining -16% 20% 7% 6% -2% 18% 4. 9% 9. 3% Wholesale and Retail Trade 0% 11% Hotels and restaurants 4% 5% Real estate, business services 6% 1% Transport & Communication 6% 5% Finance 0% 34% 5. 0% 7. 1% Manufacturing Construction Services GDP 4

External Performance: Trade Balance (USD 2009/10 million) (Variation in 2010/11 %) • Export earnings increased as a result of higher prices but Exports, of which: Coffee Tea Minerals Imports, of which: Capital goods Energy goods Consumer goods Intermediary goods Trade Balance 214 325. 1 51. 9% 37 53. 9 56. 4 55. 4 67. 7 59 49. 7% 25. 6% 4. 6% 1, 258. 8 1, 521 20. 8% 330. 1 195. 4 388. 8 344. 6 378. 9 210. 6 485. 3 446. 2 14. 8% 7. 8% 24. 8% 29. 5% -1, 044. 80 -1, 195. 90 14. 5% import s also increased on account of higher capital imports for the on-going large investment projects and intermediate goods.

External Performance (cont. ) FDI flows of US$64 mio in 2010 mostly for investment in the hotel and tourism sectors. Tourism receipts grew from US$201. 6 mio in 2010 from US$174. 5 mio in 2009 and by 28% during Jan-June 2011 (US$115. 6 mio) compared to the same period 2010. 6

External Performance: External debt The stock of external debt rose from US$ 718. 93 mio at end June 2010 to US$ 889. 51 mio at end June 2011. 7

Monetary Developments Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Net Foreign Assets 474. 4 518. 9 485. 3 -6. 5% - Private sector 371. 2 397. 1 446. 9 12. 5% Broad Money (M 3) 554. 9 615. 9 710. 9 15. 4% - Currency in circulation 83. 5 90. 5 101. 6 12. 3% - Deposits 471. 5 � 525. 5 609. 4 � NFA declined by 6. 5%, mainly on account of lower donors disbursements and increase sales of foreign exchange to the commercial banks. � After the credit squeeze in 2009 due to liquidity crunch, outstanding credit to private sector has registered an improvement as of end June 2011 standing at Rwf 446. 9 bn from Rwf 371. 2 bn in June 2010. and Rwf 357. 3 bn in December 2009. (ju 10/jun 11=20. 4%) � Bank deposits also increased by 29. 2% from Rwf 471. 5 bn in June 2010 to Rwf 609. 4 in June 2011. � Banking sector profitability by end June 2011 was Rwf 13. 8 bn against Rwf 4. 1 bn in June 2010; � NPLs fell to 9. 2% at end June 2011 from 12% in June 2010. Change in % Jun 11/ Dec 10 16. 0% Exchange rate: Rwandan franc depreciated by 0. 8% against the US dollar during the first half of the year 2011

II. 2011 outlook 9

2011 Outlook � Real GDP is forecast to continue rebounding from the 2009 dip, reaching 8. 8 % in 2011 on account of good agriculture production with spillover effects on manufacturing (food) and services (wholesale & retail trade and hotels and restaurants), booming construction and public administration spending. � Prices will remain under control (single digit target); � Monetary policy to remain accommodative to support growth objectives but to be used effectively to reduce inflationary pressures; � Export volumes have faired well and are expected to continue that way; � Credit to the economy is expected to grow by around 30% over the year 2011 (against 19. 2% projected for 2011)

THANK YOU Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning - For Official Use Only September 16, 2020