Putting In Its Proper Place Roland Minton Roanoke

Shot. Link statistics {R, PGATOUR, 2008, 380, 01035, 745, 027, Tommy, Armour III, 01,

Strokes Gained Have expected score (ES) from every lie, distance to hole. B =

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” Broadie: top 40 in Total S. G.

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” … for large values of 15: “Putting

Nineteen “Skills” Putting; Fringe; GS Bunker Tee shots (3, 4, 5); Fairway (0 -50,

Tiger Woods 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Putt -0. 76

Tiger Time Series Putts per 50 -200 roundsyards in blue, Fairways in blue, Overall

Time Series Correlations 66 golfers in all 9 years (2005 -13) of data. For

Time Series Correlations Is putting unimportant for “bad” putters ? Phil Mickelson Ernie Els

Time Series Correlations Normalized time series for all 66: Putting Par 4 tee Layup

And More Correlations Strokes gained in rounds vs score: Putting 0. 57 Fwy 50

Extreme Value Theorem Do highly correlated skills tend to be strengths or weaknesses of

Sound Bite Time? This year’s Masters will be won by … someone who putts

Slides: 18

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Putting In Its Proper Place Roland Minton Roanoke College

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game”

Shot. Link Revolution

Shot. Link statistics {R, PGATOUR, 2008, 380, 01035, 745, 027, Tommy, Armour III, 01, The Barclays, Ridgewood Country Club, 15, 3, 03, 155, 01, S, Tee. Box, , Green, Unknown, 05171, 05400, N, N, , 0000228, 0907, Good, With, Level, 9, 922. 2740, 8, 232. 4720, 74. 6350, 00022, 00000}

Strokes Gained Have expected score (ES) from every lie, distance to hole. B = ES before shot A = ES after shot A – B = value of shot (in strokes)

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” Broadie: top 40 in Total S. G. 2004 -12. Average: 1. 13 strokes per round better Putting: 0. 17 strokes per round better 0. 17 out of 1. 13 is 15%. Top 40: Phil, Vijay, Els, Sergio, Scott

“Putting is Only 15% of the Game” … for large values of 15: “Putting contributed 35%, on average, to victories on the PGA Tour. ” What are other ways to measure the importance of putting?

Nineteen “Skills” Putting; Fringe; GS Bunker Tee shots (3, 4, 5); Fairway (0 -50, 50 -200, 200 -250) Rough (0 -50, 50 -200) Recovery; Layup; Penalty Intermediate (0 -50, 50 -200, 200 -250) Miscellaneous (0 -50, 50 -200)

Tiger Woods 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Putt -0. 76 -0. 45 -0. 83 -0. 87 -0. 86 0. 06 -0. 27 -0. 43 -0. 55 T 3 -0. 17 -0. 35 -0. 42 -0. 33 -0. 16 -0. 14 -0. 35 -0. 28 -0. 39 T 4 -0. 43 -0. 25 -0. 23 -0. 04 -0. 19 0. 08 0. 34 -0. 3 0. 01 T 5 -0. 39 -0. 24 -0. 21 -0. 07 -0. 35 -0. 01 0 -0. 13 Fs -0. 02 -0. 04 0 -0. 14 -0. 09 -0. 18 -0. 06 -0. 05 Fm -0. 36 -0. 65 -0. 57 -0. 76 -0. 4 -0. 33 -0. 64 Fl -0. 09 -0. 2 -0. 03 -0. 08 -0. 13 0. 03 -0. 05 -0. 04 -0. 07 Rs 0. 02 0. 05 -0. 13 -0. 34 -0. 14 0. 03 -0. 21 -0. 04 -0. 09 Rm -0. 06 -0. 25 -0. 23 -0. 12 0. 05 0. 09 -0. 12 -0. 02 sand -0. 08 -0. 09 -0. 07 0. 03 -0. 12 0. 14 0. 24 -0. 04 -0. 11 fringe 0. 02 -0. 06 0. 01 -0. 1 0. 02 -0. 2 0. 06 -0. 04 rec. -0. 08 0. 02 -0. 01 -0. 09 0 0. 03 0. 02 -0. 05 lay. -0. 03 -0. 12 -0. 17 0. 05 -0. 07 0. 05 0. 06 -0. 08 0 Is -0. 07 0. 03 -0. 02 0. 05 -0. 02 Im -0. 06 -0. 05 -0. 02 -0. 11 -0. 06 0. 13 -0. 12 0. 02 -0. 06 Il 0 -0. 01 -0. 02 Ms 0. 03 -0. 02 -0. 01 0 -0. 02 0. 05 0 0. 03 Mm -0. 07 -0. 14 -0. 02 -0. 1 0. 08 0. 02 0. 12 -0. 05 pen 0. 05 -0. 24 -0. 1 -0. 39 -0. 12 -0. 18 0. 42 -0. 11 0. 12 total -2. 58 -3. 05 -3. 07 -3. 43 -2. 82 -0. 15 -1. 05 -1. 88 -2. 03 0. 43 0. 92 1. 48 1. 91 1. 02 0. 21

Tiger Time Series Putts per 50 -200 roundsyards in blue, Fairways in blue, Overall rating in in purple, Overall Correlation equals 0. 61 0. 91 Correlation

Time Series Correlations 66 golfers in all 9 years (2005 -13) of data. For each of 19 skills, 9 -year time series of strokes gained versus total strokes gained. Putting #1 for 18 golfers, #2 for 11 golfers, #3 for 10 golfers of the 66. Par 4 tee shots #1 for 10, #2 for 8; Fwy 50 -200 #1 for 5, #2 for 9 Layup #1 for 5, #2 for 7

Time Series Correlations Is putting unimportant for “bad” putters ? Phil Mickelson Ernie Els Vijay Singh Sergio Garcia Adam Scott 0. 73 (1) 0. 76 (2) 0. 82 (3) 0. 76 (1) 0. 81 (1)

Time Series Correlations Normalized time series for all 66: Putting Par 4 tee Layup Par 3 tee Fwy 50 -200 0. 59 0. 58 0. 50 0. 42 0. 39

And More Correlations Strokes gained in rounds vs score: Putting 0. 57 Fwy 50 -200 0. 38 Penalty 0. 32 Par 3 tee 0. 31 Par 4 tee 0. 29 For each of top 50 players, correlations of skills round ratings to round scores were computed. For 49 of 50, putting had highest correlation. But how much of putting success is skill?

Extreme Value Theorem Do highly correlated skills tend to be strengths or weaknesses of golfers? Yes! Highest correlated skill is top 3 for 19/50, bottom 3 for 22/50. 2 nd or 3 rd highest correlated skill is top 3 for 41/100, bottom 3 for 25/100.

Sound Bite Time? This year’s Masters will be won by … someone who putts better than usual. Any Questions?