Portland General Electric 2016 Integrated Resource Plan OPUC

Portland General Electric 2016 Integrated Resource Plan OPUC Public Meeting December 20, 2016

Agenda Process and Compliance Approach and Summary Analysis Action Plan Next steps 2

2013 IRP Order Resource Options § Portfolio Development Enabling Studies § EIM Cost-Benefit Analysis ü 5 stakeholder meetings & 1 Commission meeting § Distributed Generation Market Potential ü Feedback form § Planning Reserve Margin § Diverse Portfolios § Flexible Capacity § Renewal of cost-effective hydro contracts § Climate Change § Over 20 MW of new DSG § Pursued cost-effective EE Other Requirements § Load Forecast Methodology § Demand Response Potential § Developed RPS options considering various levels of compliance § Performed portfolio analysis to model Clean Power Plan & presented results at public meetings PGE’s 2016 IRP adheres to the Commission guidelines (Order Nos. 07 -002, 07 -047, & 12 -013) 3

2016 IRP Public Process Stakeholder engagement process Participation (commenced April 2015, draft issued October 2016) Meet ings Advocacy • Business • Environmental • Industry 9 Agency • City • State • Utility Commercial • Infrastructure • Legal • Technology 7 13 9 Round Table • Robust opportunities stakeholder input 2 Commission • Responded to over 100 parking lot questions § Ongoing opportunity for input at: https: //www. portlandgeneral. com/forms/pge-stakeholder-feedback 4

2016 IRP Approach Continuous improvement and evolution through the 2016 IRP Incorporate changing policy § Federal Clean Power Plan § Western Energy Imbalance Market § Oregon Clean Electricity Plan (SB 1547) Commitment to rigorous analysis § Load Forecast methodology § Resource Adequacy methodology § Integration of all resources − Resource potential studies − Flexibility analysis − Energy Storage analysis Adaptive Action Plan § Minimize greenhouse gas emissions § Maintain Resource Adequacy § Maximize resource options 5

2016 Integrated Resource Plan Three integrated components to deliver sustainability Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal Energy Management Optimizing Capacity Cost-effective Energy Efficiency Increasing Demand Response Renewable Expansion Technology Integration 6

Key Inputs – Load Forecast Reference Case: 1. 2 % long-term growth High and Low Cases: (+1) and (-1) standard deviation Key Assumptions: • Weather • Economic outlook • Demand-side resources 7

Key Inputs – Natural Gas Price Forecast Through 2020: Forward market prices Through 2035: Wood Mackenzie long-term fundamentals Through 2050: Extrapolated Wood Mackenzie 8

Key Inputs – CO 2 Price Forecast Reference Case: $39/ton real-level (blue curve) High Case: $60/ton real-level (green curve) Low Case: Zero CO 2 price (CPP* remains in effect) Trigger Point: > $500/ton *CPP: Clean Power Plan 9

Key Inputs – Production Tax Credits (PTC) PTC Extended December 2015 Phase-out through 2019 Beyond 2017, only wind is qualified 10

Key Inputs – Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) RPS expanded to 50% by 2040 (SB 1547 – blue bars) REC generation with existing resources and contracts is insufficient relative to compliance requirements 11

Resource Need – Energy and Capacity Resource need is driven mainly by transition away from coal and continuing reliability requirements MW Energy Need: 388 MWa 2035 3500 Capacity 6000 Need: 819 MW 5000 1225 MWa Deficit 2021 819 MW Deficit 2021 3000 388 MWa Deficit 2500 2035 1864 MW Deficit 4000 Incremental RPS 2000 1500 1: 2 Peak Load + Reserves 3000 2000 1000 500 41 20 39 20 37 20 35 20 33 20 31 20 29 20 27 20 25 20 23 20 21 20 19 20 Wind+Solar Energy Efficiency 20 20 41 20 39 20 37 20 35 Hydro Contracts Load 20 33 20 31 20 29 20 27 20 25 20 23 20 21 20 19 20 17 12 Gas Coal Incremental RPS 17 0 0 Gas Hydro Wind+Solar Coal Contracts Spot Market

Resource Need – Regional shift in resource mix Announced Retirements Regional baseload generation retirements change grid operations and drive the need for action *Colstrip units 3 & 4 removed from Oregon customer prices by 2035 (PGE owns 20% - 296 MW) 13 Resource State Capacity Fuel Status J. E. Corette MT 153 MW Coal 2015 Navajo NAV 1 AZ 750 MW Coal 2019 (planned) Boardman OR 570 MW Coal 2020 (cease coal-fired) Centralia 1 WA 670 MW Coal 2020 (planned) North Valmy 1 NV 254 MW Coal 2022 (potential) Colstrip* 1 & 2 MT 614 MW Coal 2022 (planned) Centralia 2 WA 670 MW Coal 2025 (planned) Cholla 1, 3, 4 AZ 767 MW Coal 2025 (planned) San Onofre CA 2, 150 MW Nuclear 2015 Diablo Canyon CA 2, 200 MW Nuclear (planned) Once-through Cooling CA 6, 000 -10, 000 MW NG 2016 -2025 (planned) Total 14. 8 -18. 8 GW By 2025

Resource Need – Resource Adequacy (RA) RA target 1 -day-in-10 years (2. 4 hours per year) LOLE in 2021 = 253 hours Assumes target EE, DR, DSG deployment achieved LOLE: Loss of load expectation 14

Scenario Analysis – Portfolios, in conjunction with PGE’s existing resources, test combinations of expected costs and associated risks 15

Scenario Analysis – Futures are broad and diverse to reasonably reflect circumstances impacting cost and risk of various portfolio choices 16

Scenario Analysis – Portfolios across Futures 21 Portfolios evaluated across 23 Futures Scenario Analysis: 17 • • Resource Adequacy • • • Colstrip timing Transmission breakeven RPS strategies Action Plan

Scenario Analysis – Preferred Portfolio All Action Plan portfolios are RPS compliant and resource adequate Efficient Capacity 2021 evaluated as the best combination of cost and risk 18

Scenario Analysis – Preferred Portfolio 2016 IRP analysis finds four top-ranked portfolios score close to one another Results support procurement that enables broadranging resources 19

2016 Integrated Resource Plan Three integrated components to deliver long-term sustainability Wind, Solar, Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal Energy Management Optimizing Capacity Cost-effective Energy Efficiency Increasing Demand Response Renewable Expansion Technology Integration 20

Action Plan – Energy Management Energy Efficiency 135 MWa (176 MW) Demand Response 77 MW (winter) 69 MW (summer) 21

Action Plan – Renewable Expansion Renewable Resources 175 MWa (2018) Qualifying Facilities (2020) 22

Action Plan – Technology Integration 4000 MW Dispatchable Capacity Resources Up to 850 MW (2021) Annual and/or Seasonal New and/or Existing Physical and/or Contract 0 MW Energy Storage 50 MW - 50 MW 23

Reducing Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) PGE’s 2016 IRP forecasts CO 2 reductions consistent with SB 1547 estimates 24

Next Steps OPUC Procedural Schedule for 2016 IRP 25 Docket Open Oct 20 Scheduling Conference Nov 2 Final 2016 IRP Filing Nov 15 PGE Roundtable 16 -4 Nov 16 PGE Presentation to Commissioners Dec 20 Staff/Stakeholder comments due Jan 24, 2017 PGE reply comments due Mar 3 Staff/Stakeholder final comments due Mar 31 PGE final reply comments due May 5 Staff memo May 26 Public meeting TBD Order entered (on or before) Jun 15

Summary 2016 Integrated Resource Plan § Follows process and complies with OPUC guidelines § Incorporates robust stakeholder engagement opportunities and rigorous analysis § Recommends a specific Action Plan without excluding options Contact Information: Franco Albi Manager, Integrated Resource Planning Franco. Albi@pgn. com 503 -464 -7412 Feedback welcome 24/7: § www. portlandgeneral. com/irp § irp@pgn. com 26