NRAL Seminar P P Shirshov Institute Moscow March

NRAL Seminar, P P Shirshov Institute, Moscow March 23, 2012 - Extreme events, Scenario Developments across Disciplines. Task Team on Catalogue of extreme events Develop Scenarios for Model Runs Next work and activities logistics, travel, work shops NRAL Summer-Workshop - Business: consumables, software, travel, meetings, workshops Peter Koltermann Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University

Agenda • 9. 30 Coffee and snacks • 10. 00 Peter Koltermann Introduction • Sergey Gulev On which Time-Scales does the Ocean drive the Atmosphere ? • Igor Zveryaev Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010: Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution» • Vladimir Semenov Cold winters of the 21 st century as a non-linear atmosphere circulation response to the Arctic sea ice melt • Natalya Tilinina Intercomparison of Cyclone Characteristics from different Methods and Products • Evgenii Kulikov Modelling Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea • Victor Arkhipkin Time series of significant wave heights on the Сaspian Sea

• Daria Gushina Synoptical situations associated to the various types of inundations in European part of Russia • Inna Krylenko Flooding of the coastal zones • Elena Ilyushina Calculating risk, economical and individual» • Break 12: 30 – 14: 00 • Sergey Mukhametov Report of Task Team «Catalogue of hazards of the coastal zone» • Discussion with participants • General Discussion • Next work and activities • logistics, travel, work shops • NRAL Summer-Workshop • Any other business.

Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,

Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,

Methodology Historical Data Bases Castaneda rd za ha risk lity Risk Assessme nt i ab Exposure er ln vu Coastal impacts Hazard - Uncertainty exposure Vulnerability The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)

Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et a 500 years return level (m) Castaneda Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding level (cm/year)