P P Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS Hydrological

P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS Hydrological Cycle Laboratory Implementation of the project at IORAS Sergey Gulev and Pavel Groisman IORAS (Moscow, Russia) and NOAA NCDC (Ashville, USA) HCLab Megagrant 14. B 25. 31. 0026 of the Ministry of Education and

Mid-latitudinal hydrological cycle: key processes and HCL structure Atmospheric dynamics and precipitation group Low-level baroclinicity and cyclone intensification Ocean and air-sea interaction group Land hydrology group Continental precipitation and its extremes Diabatic heating and evaporation Land-sea interactions Climate modelling group HCLab Extratropical cyclones and atmospheric moisture transport Coastal processes and land-sea exchanges group

HCLab operational mode: Think globally, act regionally! Work packages WP-1. Ocean processes and ocean evaporation WP-2. Atmospheric moisture transports WP-3. Atmospheric precipitation, clustering, variability WP-4. Land surface hydrology and land processes WP-5. Land-sea interactions and exchanges WP-6. Climate projections of the hydrological cycle Tasks: Task 1. Components’ assessment (90+%) Task 2. Regional hydrological budgets for the past sixty years (90+%) Task 3. Projections of changes in hydrological cycle (75+%) Task 4. Human interactions with the hydrological cycle (50+%) HCLab Key-process and key-region studies (KPKRS) Ø Excessive water surplus events (KPKRS 1 ~ 90%) Ø Wet/dry summers over European Russia (KPKRS 2 ~ 85%) Ø Thresholds of the terrestrial hydrological cycle (KPSRS 3 ~80%) Ø Aral Sea: anthropogenically altered hydrological cycle (KPSRS 4 ~ 75%) Ø Arctic marginal seas in changing climate (KPSRS 5 ~ 60%)

Populating the lab – Total ~ 45 (+/-) By nation (except for RF): By institution: Belorussia: 1 IORAS - 30 Ukraine: 1 VNNIGMI - 1 UK: 1 IAPRAS – 2 GWU USA: 3 1 By degree: IWPRAS – 5 UCL – MS Students: 1 By field: 8 MSU 4 Bel-RHM Oceanography - 8 Ecology Ph. D Students: – 13 7 Meteorology – 7 Geography Ph. D: – 3 13 By age: Hydrology – 5 Math Newly / not- newly DSc: 2 > 30 - 9 hired: 6 > 40 Newly 14 22 Not newly – 31 < 50 HCLab

Data sets and data server CMIP 5 model data ~ 80 TB Station data (daily, hourly ~ 20 -30 TB HCLab Reanalyses ~ 70 TB

Computer resources 3 systems: CRAY CN 5600 -XD Intel X 5679 processors 8 processors 48 nodes 100 GB RAM 562 GFLOPs SUN 24 nodes 16 GM RAM SMP-multiprocessor WS 16 modes 150 GB RAM HCLab Storage: ~ 200 TB

Mobile coastal hydrological lab (MCL)

Meredith, E. P. , Semenov, V. A. , Maraun, D. , Park, W. , Chernokulsky A. V. (2015) Crucial role Publications of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. Nature Geosceince, 8, doi: 10. 1038/NGEO 2483. Zyulyaeva Y. A. , I. I. Zveryaev, et al. , 2015: Observations-based analysis of the summer temperature extremes in Moscow. Int. J. Climatol. , doi: 10. 1002/joc. 4370. Zveryaev, I. I. Seasonal differences in intraseasonal and interannual variability of Mediterranean Sea surface temperature. J. Geophys. Res. - Oceans, 120, 2813 -2825, doi: 10. 1002/2014 JC 010387. Semenov V. A. and Latif M. (2015) Nonlinear winter atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies for different periods during 1966– 2012. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 054020, doi: 10. 1088/1748 -9326/10/5/054020. Bulygina, O. N. , N. M Arzhanova, P. Ya Groisman, 2015: Icing conditions over Northern Eurasia in changing climate. Environ. Res. Lett. , 10, 025003 Gelfan A. , Semenov V. A. , Gusev E. , Motovilov Y. , Nasonova O. , Krylenko I. , 2015: Largebasin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 2737– 2754, doi: 10. 5194/hess-19 -2737 -2015. Kravtsov, S. , I. Rudeva, S. K. Gulev, 2015: Reconstructing sea-level pressure variability via a feature tracking approach. J. Atmos. Sci. , 72, 487 -505, DOI: 10. 1175/JAS-D-14 -0169. 1 Volosciuk, C. , D. Maraun, V. A. Semenov, and W. Park, 2015: Extreme Precipitation in an Atmosphere General Circulation Model: Impact of Horizontal and Vertical Model Resolutions. J. Climate, 28, 1184– 1205. Gelfan A. N. , Semenov V. A. , Motovilov, Yu. G. , 2015: Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 369, 49– 53, doi: 10. 5194/piahs-369 -49 -2015. Rudeva, I. , S. K. Gulev, I. Simmonds and N. Tilinina, 2014: The sensitivity of characteristics of cyclone activity to identification procedures in tracking algorithms. Tellus A, 2014, 66, 24961, http: //dx. doi. org/10. 3402/tellusa. v 66. 24961 HCLab

Groisman, P. , S. Gulev, S. Maksyutov, 2014: Earth System Studies in Northern Eurasia. Eos, Publications 95, No. 16, 133– 140 Partasenok, I. S. , P. Ya. Groisman, G. Chekan and V. Melnik, 2014: Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus. Environmental Research Letters, 9, N 9 Shiklomanov A. I. and R. B. Lammers (2014). River ice responses to a warming Arctic—recent evidence from Russian rivers. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, 035008 doi: 10. 1088/1748 -9326/9/3/035008. Gelfan, A. ; Motovilov, Yu. ; Krylenko, I. ; Moreido, V. & Zakharova, E. Testing robustness of the physically-based ECOMAG model with respect to changing conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal. DOI: 10. 1080/02626667. 2014. 935780, 2014. Zolina, O. , 2014: Multidecadal trends in the duration of wet spells and associated intensity of precipitation as revealed by very dense observational network. Env. Res. Lett. , 9, 025003 Zolina, O. , C. Simmer, A. Kapala, P. Shabanov, P. Becker, H. Mächel, S. Gulev, and P. Groisman, 2014: Precipitation Variability and Extremes in Central Europe: New View from STAMMEX Results. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 95, 995– 1002, doi: http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1175/BAMS-D-12 -00134. 1 Izhitskiy, A, P. Zavialov, 2014: On thermohaline structure and circulation of the Western Large Aral Sea from 2009 to 2011: Observations and modeling. Journal of Marine Systems, 129, 234 -247 Korotenko, K. A. , A. A. Osadchiev, P. O. Zavialov, R. C. Kao, and C. -F. Ding, 2014, Effects of bottom topography on dynamics of river discharges in tidal regions: Case study of twin plumes in Taiwan Strait, Ocean Sci. , 10, 863 -879, doi: 10. 5194/os-10 -863 -2014. Lockhoff, M. , O. Zolina, C. Simmer, J. Schulz, 2014: Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation over Europe using gauge observations. J. Climate, 27, 607 -623, doi: http: //dx. doi. org/10. 1175/JCLI-D-13 -00194. 1 Gusev, Ye. , Nasonova, 2014: O. Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins. J. Hydrol. Hydromech. , 62, 2014, 3, 197– 208. DOI: 10. 2478/johh-2014 -0025 Tilinina, N. , S. K. Gulev, D. Bromwich, 2014: New view of Arctic cyclone activity from the Arctic System reanalysis. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 43, doi: 10. 1002/2013 GL 058924 HCLab

Conference participation, Young scientists conferences and schools Major international topical conferences: Climate and Future Earth, GEWEX OSC, ESA-TIE Workshop, NASA Ocean Mission Workshop, OHC–CLIVAR-CDP (7 invited talks) Organizing special sessions at the AGU, EGU, and Jp. GU Annual Meetings (2013 -2015, Groisman, Gulev – coconveners) - altogether 7 sessions, about 15 talks from HCLab Organization or co-organization of the International Workshops with Young scientist training sessions in Tomsk, Barnaul, Prague (2014 -2015) Organization of the Earth Science Session at the All-Russia Conference “Nauka Molodykh”, Sevastopol (Sep. -Oct. 2015) – Groisman to chair HCLab or co-organization and lecturing at the Early Organization

Ph. D students, Ph. D and DSci defenses 3 Ph. D and 2 DSci dissertations (2013 -2015), 2 more Ph. D dissertations are accepted for consideration already in 2015 9 Ph. D students, 5 MS students, including one of UCL Fund-rising Ø Ø GREENICE (Arctic Council) ARCTIC-ERA (Belmont Fund) исследовательская группа РНФ 4 гранта РФФИ TOTAL ~ 10 millions a year HCLab

Web site and INTERNET resources www. hclab. ru HCLab