Modelling and mapping of critical loads of heavy

Modelling and mapping of critical loads of heavy metals and their exceedances under the LRTAP Convention Integrated Assessment of Air pollution effects on biodiversity Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg (www. mnp. nl) Gert Jan Reinds (www. alterra. wur. nl) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Proposed Outline • Integrated Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Winds Emissions (driving forces and pressures) (Atmosph. Transport) Deposition (impacts on human health and Ecosystems) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (? ) Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Integrated Environmental Assessment Driving Forces Pressure State Impact Policy response Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Approximative illustration of multi-pollutant multi-effect relationships Pressures Drivers State Impacts Response Energy Single and SO 2 emissions S deposition Critical loads for acidification Surface waters NH 3 emissions N deposition Critical loads for nitrogen Terrestrial eco systems NO x emissions O 3 formation Critical levels for ozone Crops VOC emissions Secondary aerosols Health guidelines O 3 PM emissions Primary particles Life expectancy multiple Agriculture pollutant CH 4 emissions emission Industrial production controls Human health Critical loads of h. metals CO 2 emissions N 2 O emissions Radiative forcing/GWP HFC emissions PFC emissions SF 6 emissions Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008 Climate

Integrated Environmental Assessment (RAINS model) Optimization Economic Emission control policies activities Environmental targets Agriculture NH 3 control & costs NH 3 emissions NH 3 dispersion Energy use SO 2 control & costs SO 2 emissions S dispersion Critical loads f. acidification NOx control & costs NOx emissions NOx dispersion Critical loads f. eutrophication O 3 formation Critical levels for ozone Transport NOx/VOC control&costs Solvents, fuels, industry VOC control & costs Other activities PM control & costs VOC emissions Secondary aerosols Primary PM emissions Emission control costs Primary PM dispersion O 3 Population exposure PM Population exposure Environmental impacts Scenario analysis Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008 Source: IIASA

Focus of this presentation Driving Forces Impact Pressure State Abatement Scenarios Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Winds Emissions (driving forces and pressures) (Atmosph. Transport) How much deposition Is acceptable ? Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (? ) Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Acidification effects in Jizera mountains, including the need for anticipated management and clearcutting 1976 1995 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

How much deposition is acceptable… …to avoid adverse effects of air pollution to the sustainability of our natural environment ? : The concept of critical loads ! Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Definition of critical loads and objectives • In general: – a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge • For heavy metals: – The critical load of a heavy metal is the highest total metal input rate (g ha-1 a-1) below which harmful effects on human health and ecosystems will not occur in an infinite time perspective, according to present knowledge • Objective of the “critical load approach” in integrated environmental assessment: Deposition should not exceed critical loads to avoid harmful effects to a sustainable natural environment. Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well -being. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being Source: Millenium Ecosyst. Assessment http: //www. millenniumassessment. org/documents/document. 359. aspx. ppt#8 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Indicators of heavy metal impacts used to calculate critical loads Source: Slootweg J, Hettelingh J-P, Posch M, Schütze G, Spranger T, De Vries W, Reinds GJ, Van ’t Zelfde M, Dutchak S, Ilyin I (2007) Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus 7: 371 -377 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Methodology for the computation of critical loads: Steady State Mass Balance (SSMB) For the comutation of CL(M) = critical load of metal M Mgu = Metal uptake Mle = Metal leaching Source: Reinds, 2008. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Metal Uptake • Metal uptake was computed as tree growth × metal content in wood. • Metal content was obtained from the Mapping Manual • Forest growth was obtained from the EFISCEN database for Europe and from published data (e. g. Alexeyev, Markov & Birdsey 2004 for Russia) for the other countries Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical concentrations and leaching • Metal leaching was computed as critical metal concentration × water flux • Critical metal concentrations are listed in the Mapping Manual as a function of p. H and DOC concentration class • p. H was obtained using soil type from the soil map and additional soil profile data bases. DOC was obtained using a transfer function as suggested in the Mapping Manual Source, Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Georeferenced information is needed as input to the steady state mass balance equation • Soil maps: (European Soil Data Base v 2 polygon map 1: 1 M for Europe and Russia; FAO Soil map 1: 5 M) • Landcover Maps: LRTAP land cover map (100 m cells); Global Land Cover 2000 map (1 km cells) • Forest growth regions (EFISCEN, Russian Regions, EECCA countries) Map overlay yields 3. 8 M units with forest or other natural vegetation, 1. 3 M of which > 1 km 2 Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Maps of input parameters Soil Land. Use EMEP Overlay Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical load of Cadmium to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Cd deposition Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical load of Mercury to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Hg deposition Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical load of lead to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Pb deposition Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical load to protect 95% of natural systems Public health endpoints Biological endpoints Critical load of Cadmium 5 th percentile CL(Cd) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5 th percentile CL(Cd) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1) Critical load of lead 5 th percentile CL(Pb) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5 th percentile CL(Pb) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1) Critical load of Mercury 5 th percentile CL(Hg) to protect Ecosystems (g ha-1 a-1) 5 th percentile CL(Hg) to protect human health (g ha-1 a-1) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Similar georeferenced input is required for the computation of critical loads for acidification Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Critical loads for acidification Source: Reinds (2008) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Collaboration with EECCA experts and scientists is required to review and revise geographical data on critical loads and model input data ! Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Outline • Integrated Environmental Assessment • Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution • “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts • Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! • Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Example Scenarios: • Current Legislation (CLE) • Full Implementation of the Protocol (FI) • Full Implementation of the Protocol plus Additional Measures (FIAM) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Areas at risk of health or ecosystem effects in 2000 based on Official Emission data incl. TNO adjustments (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) Area@risk to Health 2000 Cd (%) Area@risk to Health 2000 Pb (%) Area@risk to Health 2000 Hg (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Cd (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Pb (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Hg (%) EU 25 0. 03 24. 32 2. 4 0. 02 48. 64 85. 75 Europe 0. 83 16. 65 2. 4 0. 07 53. 44 85. 34 (excl. EECCA) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Areas where deposition of lead and mercury Exceed critical loads (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) At risk of lead deposition At risk of mercury deposition Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Tentative results of the risk of the deposition of chromium, nickel, copper, zinc, arsenic and selenium in Europe (excl. EECCA) (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) Scen ario Percentage of area in Europe at risk caused by exceedance of critical loads of the following heavy metals: Cr Ni Cu Zn As Se 2000 0. 07 0. 71 0. 76 1. 66 0 2. 41 2020 CLE 0. 08 0. 40 0. 44 1. 06 0 1. 09 2020 FI 0. 01 0. 21 0. 34 1. 06 0 0. 94 2020 - 0. 01 FIAM 0. 03 0. 25 1. 06 0 0. 33 Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Conclusions and recommendations • The effect oriented approach helps to set comprehensive targets emission reductions to protect human health and biodiversity and ecosystem functions • Thus, critical loads were used to support the Oslo protocol (1994) and Gothenburg protocol (1999) under the LRTAP Convention • Collaboration with experts and scientists of EECCA Parties to the LRTAP Convention is needed to improve knowledge on requirements for the protection of human health, biodiversity and ecosystem fuctions against effects of air pollution • Preliminar national data files and models can be obtained by NFCs in EECCA countries from the Coordination Centre for Effects of the ICP Modelling and Mapping. • Collaborative projects between National Focal Centres in EECCA countries and other institutions such as EMEP MSC-E, MSC-W and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling (CIAM) is recommended. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008

Further information and publications: • Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) (www. mnp. nl/cce) • International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping (www. icpmapping. org) Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www. mnp. nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14 -16 May 2008