Male and female delinquent trajectories Hans Landsheer Cor

Male and female delinquent trajectories Hans Landsheer Cor van Dijkum Utrecht University The Netherlands 1

Goal of the study Study of the differences between male and female delinquency trajectories during adolescence The prediction of delinquency in late adolescence on the basis of earlier developments 2

Design 3 wave longitudinal panel study Time lag of 3 years between measurements 270 Dutch adolecents in the age group 12 -14 113 males 157 females Self reported light delinquency, such as: Vandalism Theft 3

Specific research questions a. Is there a group of female offenders who follow the same delinquency trajectory as male persistent offenders: start at an early age, persist throughout adolescence, with a relatively high frequency of delinquent activity, including more serious offenses. b. Do offenders who have refrained from delinquency at one or more points during the early phases of adolescence show a higher probability of later desistance in comparison to persistent offenders? c. Can late-adolescent delinquency be predicted on the basis of earlier delinquency and social support? 4

Results ad a: Is there a group of female offenders who follow the same delinquency trajectory as male persistent offenders? • Both these males and females are active at age < 10 years • Persistent female adolescents are a far smaller proportion of their peers (males: 32, 7% of all males; females: 12, 7% of all females) • Furthermore, in comparison with their peers: • Both groups are persistently more active delinquents ( p <. 01) • Both groups are also involved in more serious crimes ( p <. 05) • Both groups have a low rate of desistance in late adolescence (23% males; 31% females) 5

Results ad b: desistance Do offenders who report to have refrained from delinquency for at least one year at one or more points during the early phases of adolescence show a higher probability of desistance in late adolescence in comparison with persistent offenders? 6

Male desistance Males Late adolescent desistance Crimgroups Proportion N 1 Non-offenders . 77 13 2 Offenders who desist . 35 63 Persistent delinquents . 19 37 Total . 35 113 7

Female desistance Females Late adolescent desistance Crimgroups Proportion N 1 Non-offenders . 69 49 2 Offenders who desist . 50 88 Persistent delinquents . 30 20 Total . 50 157 8

Results ad b. Non-persistence = refraining at least one year Dependent variable: Desistance at age 18 -20 No interaction F(1, 204) = 0. 25, p >. 10 Main effect of persistence F(1, 204) = 5, 71, p <. 02 Main effect of sex F(1, 204) = 4, 85, p <. 03 9

Results ad c. Can late-adolescent delinquency be predicted on the basis of earlier delinquency and social support? Table 2. Summary of Two Hierarchical Multiple Regression Models for the Prediction of the Frequency of Delinquent Behavior in Late Adolescence Sex Model 113 males 1. Previous delinquent behavior R Test of F Change . 58 F(3, 109) =13. 52 p <. 0005 2. + Support of mother in late adol. . 58 157 females 3. Previous delinquent behavior. 34 4. + Support of mother in late adol. . 42 F(1, 108) =. 64 p =. 425 F(3, 153) = 6. 43 p <. 0005 F(1, 152) = 12. 35 p <=. 001 10

Conclusions Persistent light offenses can be used to predict delinquent involvement, more heavy offenses and future delinquent involvement Females are far less involved in delinquency, but female delinquents are similar to male delinquents Male delinquency in the early phases of adolescence is strongly predictive of later involvement Female delinquency in the early phases of adolescence is less predictive of later involvement. Social support variables are more important, especially Support of Mother 11