Latinos and the 2008 Election Whats New Whats

Latinos and the 2008 Election: What’s New, What’s Not, and Do They Matter Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 10 October 30, 2008

Questions for This Week’s Readings n Under what circumstances can Latinos influence the outcomes of statewide elections? n n n Think about different forms of influence And different ways that influence can be evaluated How could electoral rules/practices be changed to enhance Latino influence?

Backdrop: Voters, Citizen Non. Voters, and Adult Non-U. S. Citizens, 1976 -2004 Latino Voters Citizen Non-U. S. voters, 18+ citizens, 18+ 1976 2, 098, 000 2, 620, 000 1, 876, 000 2004 7, 587, 000 8, 501, 000 11, 041, 000 +224% +489% % change +262% 1976 -2004 Source: Current Population Survey

Will the 2008 Election Change this Pattern? At present, the evidence is no … but there are causes for optimism

What’s New in 2008? (1) n An Latino voice in the primaries n n Hillary Clinton’s lifeline A viable Latino candidate for the presidency Latino/immigrant organizing animated Republican field, giving Mc. Cain a strategic opportunity Latino-concentration states are “battlegrounds” (4) and Latinos add competitiveness to non-Latino-concentration states (Virginia, others? )

What’s New in 2008? (2) n Investment in Latino mobilization may materialize n Campaigns – Obama as much as $20 million n n Early and diverse Latino-focused advertising Promise of a “ground war” – get out the vote that includes Latinos Ya es hora – Latino civic organizations step into the fray Competition for three Latino-held Congressional seats in South Florida

What’s Really New in 2008? n The potential Latino electorate has changed since 2004 n n Potentially 500, 000 newly naturalized citizens Young adults n n n Will Obama appeal to young Anglos extend to the Latino community? Appears to be in Florida Geographic dispersion of Latinos (particularly Latino adults eligible to vote)

And What Isn’t? (1) n Most Latino voters will see little mobilization n n Largest Latino-concentration states are non-competitive California, Texas, New York, and Illinois home to 53 percent of Latino registered voters Absence of Latino staff in key roles-both campaigns Latino role in both conventions was muted n n Few prominent speaking roles at either convention Mc. Cain/Republicans downplayed racial/ethnic diversity

And What Isn’t? (2) n Misunderstandings of Latino electorates remain n Emergence of Latino Republican electorate (Latinos as a “swing vote”) Role of language in Latino outreach And a new misunderstanding emerged n Unwillingness of Latinos to support African American candidates

Looking To Next Week (1) n Factors Latinos control n Will community mobilization efforts cause an increase in Latino turnout over and above the expected 20 percent growth in Latino voting? n n n We won’t know until next summer Don’t believe estimates of the Latino vote based on exit polls Will Ya es hora or local mobilization reach traditional non-voters? n Will naturalized-citizen voters turn out at higher rates? (arguably a response to the immigrant rights protests)

Looking to Next Week (2) n Factors external to the community n n n Will the Obama campaign spend promised $20 million? Will state efforts to restrict access to the ballot box disproportionately affect Latinos? New Latino representation n Will Latinos add to their representation in the U. S. House? One Latino Senate candidate (Texas) A possible policy outcome – Will Democrats win enough seats in the Senate (and, maybe, House) to ease immigration reform in 2009?

For Next Week 1. 2. Races to watch Tests of Latino influence in electoral politics