INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN GAS INDUSTRY ANELISE
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN GAS INDUSTRY ANELISE QUINTÃO LARA September 15 th 2020 1
Brazilian gas production has followed oil production growth 70 PRE-SALT 2. 0 60 ULTRA DEEP WATER 50 1. 5 40 DEEP WATER 1. 0 30 20 0. 5 SHALLOW WATER 10 ONSHORE 0. 0 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 Natural Gas to the Market, MM m 3/day Oil Production, MM bbl/day 2. 5 0 Source: Petrobras PNG 20 -24
Natural gas supply and demand overview Import Transportation Infrastructure Supply capacities Market Thermal power plants Daily Average Consumption 2019: 23, 6 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Consumption 2019: 38, 1 MMm 3/day LNG regasification terminals Overall Capacity: 41 MM m³/day Daily Average Volume 2019: 8, 2 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Volume 2019: 18, 8 MMm 3/day Own consumption TAG NTS TBG TSB Pipeline from Bolivia Daily Average Consumption 2019: 13, 5 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Consumption 2019: 16, 3 MMm 3/day Gás Ocidente Overall Capacity: 30 MM m³/day Daily Average Volume 2019: 17, 9 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Volume 2019: 31, 0 MMm 3/day Non-thermal demand National Production and Processing Flare Reinjection National Production Liquids Production Daily Average Volume 2019: 50, 4 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Volume 2019: 51, 7 MMm 3/day Production from partners Natural gas processing plants Daily Average Consumption 2019: 38, 2 MMm 3/day Daily Maximum Consumption 2019: 41, 7 MMm 3/day
Demand by type of consumption and geographic region January 2020 3%3% Total national daily demand 81. 8 MM m³ / day 20% 44% North region 94% N region: 5. 4 MM m³ / day 29% MW region: 1. 9 MM m³ / day 71% Industry, vehicles, residential, others Internal (Petrobras) Breakdown of daily demand by non-thermal consumption Midwest region Southeast region 17% Key Power Northeast 36% region NE region: 15. 2 MM m³ / day South region 22% 3%3% 17% 47% SE region: 51. 1 MM m³ / day 17% 61% S region: 13. 1 MM m³ / day 77% 36% Industrial Vehicular Commercial Residential Source: Petrobras
Domestic production to grow until 2030, but Brazilian market remains net importer with power demand growth 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Natural Gas Balance – Integrated Network MMm³/d Supply Potential - Integrated Network 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Associated Domestic Natural Gas - Pre-Salt Associated Domestic Natural Gas - Others Non-Associated Domestic Natural Gas Imports by pipelines LNG terminal capacity NG total supply (Integrated network) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Non-thermoelectric demand NG Thermoelectric Demand Indicative Combined Cycle Thermoelectric Demand Bi-fuel Thermoelectric Demand Supply potential Total Demand (Avg dispatch) Total Demand (Max dispatch) Source: EPE – PDE 2029
Recent Developments on the Brazilian Natural Gas Regulatory Framework 2019 2018 2017 2016 §In 2020, it will be discussed at the lower house the bill 6, 407 / 2013 which foresee regulations for the opening of the natural gas market in its different segments 2020 §Launch of the “Gás para Crescer” program §CNPE Guidelines for “Gás para Crescer” work fronts §New Gas Law bill submitted to Congress, replacing the previous from 2013 §Decree 9, 616 (12/18): Guidelines for the natural gas market regulation §CNPE Resolution (16 / 2019) §Settlement between PETROBRAS and CADE to reduce the company’s footprint in the market §TCC - Commitment Term between CADE and Petrobras
TCC - Commitment Term between CADE and Petrobras In July 2019, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE) signed an important agreement with Petrobras, outlining a set of planned actions to increase competition in the Brazilian Gas Market Divestments (Full Unbundling) • Natural Gas Transmission Companies ü NTS: 10% (teaser released) ü TAG: 10% (concluded) ü TBG: 51% (in progress) • Shares in NG distribution companies (teaser released) Marketing Opening • Access to gathering and processing infrastructure (website released – negotiations on going) • Access to transport gas capacity (capacity already informed, release to be negotiated with transcos) • Lease of Bahia Regas Terminal (teaser released , to be concluded by sept/20) • Reduction of new natural gas purchases
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