FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor

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FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www.

FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Sunshine Coast University, www. metafuture. org

Six Pillars of Foresight • Mapping the future • Anticipating the future • Timing

Six Pillars of Foresight • Mapping the future • Anticipating the future • Timing the future • Deepening the future • Creating alternatives • Transforming the future

DEEPENING THE FUTURE Causal layered analysis

DEEPENING THE FUTURE Causal layered analysis

• Litany: - visible - disconnected news events • Systemic: - social, technological,

• Litany: - visible - disconnected news events • Systemic: - social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes • Discourses: - stakeholders - ideologies - worldviews • Myths-metaphors: - stories - legends - myths of trauma and transcendence

Causal Layered Analysis Social causes Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions Public Superficial Litany

Causal Layered Analysis Social causes Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions Public Superficial Litany STEEP analysis Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview Myth Emotional, images or deep meanings Unconscious Deep Meaning Worldview

Causal Layered Analysis Level Issue / Problem Solution Who is responsible to fix it

Causal Layered Analysis Level Issue / Problem Solution Who is responsible to fix it Source Litany (Visible) Problem seems too difficult to solve Short term approaches Governments / I cant do anything about it Television/ Newspapers Systemic (Causes) Problem because of short term historical factors or it is a process or system issue Integrated approaches – systemic solutions Partnerships between sectors of society – Government plus industries Policy Journals, editorials Worldview Constituted by frame of analysis, deep structures of belief & assumption Transform, rethink self and others, change paradigm Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant language Peripheral journals, Myth / Metaphor Constituted core myths / stories Alternative stories Collective unconscious often guided by visions Work of artists, visionaries,

CLA “real” Litany R E A L I T Y Social system & structure

CLA “real” Litany R E A L I T Y Social system & structure Worldview Myth & Metaphor “imagined” Short term TIME Long term

s Em plo y ee me na ge ma fic ial Of Un of

s Em plo y ee me na ge ma fic ial Of Un of fic ial nt CLA - Stakeholders L O N G T E R M

ns er co ft Le ee n Gr Fe mi ni st va tiv

ns er co ft Le ee n Gr Fe mi ni st va tiv e CLA - Ideologies L O N G T E R M

ian nf uc Co no ige Ind am ic Isl W es t us

ian nf uc Co no ige Ind am ic Isl W es t us CLA - Worldviews L O N G T E R M

de r mo st. Po de rn Mo e-m od Pr An cie nt

de r mo st. Po de rn Mo e-m od Pr An cie nt er n n CLA - Epistemes Conventional Epistemes L O N G T E R M

METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE

METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE

CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX Spaceship Earth (Technology) Collapse (Worst case) Scenario 1 Scenario 3

CLA AND SCENARIOS MATRIX Spaceship Earth (Technology) Collapse (Worst case) Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Gaia (Ecological) Modernist (Business as usual) Litany Social causes Worldview Myth Scenario 2 Scenario 4

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Four Futures Assignment Four Futures Four Futures refersFour Futures Assignment Four Futures Four Futures refers
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Layered Style Examples Layered Communication Protocols Each layerLayered Style Examples Layered Communication Protocols Each layer
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Causal Loop Diagrams Causal loop diagrams can beCausal Loop Diagrams Causal loop diagrams can be
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Using Causal Conjunctions Causal conjunctions are used toUsing Causal Conjunctions Causal conjunctions are used to