ELearning Course 4 Strengthening the regional economic development

E-Learning Course 4 Strengthening the regional economic development Theme 1: EU, regional and national context: challenges, policy context, recommendations

Session 1 Analysis of the regional context and challenges 2

The objective of this session will be to deliver an overview of the analysis of the regional context and challenges along the Danube. After presenting the wider regional context, namely emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe, the Danube region and its countries are introduced in order to assess the specific meaning of the wider issue of brain drain for the region. 3

Structure • The wider regional context – Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe • The Danube region – Dempgraphic decline – Emigration and its economic and social impacts • Need for action • References and further reads 4

The wider regional context Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe 5

The wider regional context Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe • Since the beginning of the influx of Syrian refugees into Europe, migration is at center stage in the European policy debate. • However, already the past 25 years have seen a persistent wave of mostly economic migration from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe mainly to Western Europe. – This emigration has benefitted individual migrants, the main receiving countries in the EU and the EU as a whole. – Migration movements as an indicator of success of the EU project, as freedom of movement is necessary for achieving economic integration. 6

The wider regional context Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe • The post-1990 east-west migration in Europe has been unique. – unprecedented in speed, scale, and persistence – Young and highly skilled emigrants – Brain-drain coinciding with population aging • Positive impact of migration on receiving countries, while the impact on sending* countries is less clear-cut. *country whose citizens leave to migrate to other countries to find employment sending receiving 7

The wider regional context Emigration and its economic impact on Eastern Europe 8

The Danube region 9

The Danube region …covers 14 countries with around 156, 7 million residents – nine members of the European Union Germany, Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia – two recognised EU candidates Serbia and Montenegro, – one potential candidate Bosnia and Herzegovina) – two European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) countries • Moldova and Ukraine 10

The Danube region Shared river and territory ↔ differences dividing the region 11

The Danube region • differences – concerning the countries’ membership in European Integration, EU, Eurozone, Schengen area etc. → 58 million people living outside the EU, i. e. one third of the region – concerning income and institutions – “The division of the Danube Region follows not only political–state aspects, but ethnically, linguistically, religiously and culturally it is one of the most diverse and mosaic-patterned territories of Europe. ” (Savic/ Dakic 2016 : 470). 12

Demographic decline • The Danube Region is one of the most endangered regions in Europe from the aspect of demographical decline. – It is the only macro region in the EU with decreasing population due to natural and migratory reasons. – Most countries of the Danube region are expected to see their population decline by more than 15 percent by 2050 (UN World Population prospect) • The growing share of older cohorts within the shrinking population (Eurostat, 2016) will have a severe impact on the expected economic development, changes in consumption needs, social priorities etc. 13

Major societal challen ge: Brain Drain out of th e Danube region Hundreds of thousand s of young talents leave the Danube region in orde r to study and work a broad. 14

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Emigration and its economic and social impacts • There is the risk of mutual reinforcement of emigration and slower income convergence. • Emigration from less developed regions towards the cities leads to massive population decrease in rural areas. • Brain drain out of the Danube region appears as a major societal challenge with severe impact for the future of the whole region. Due to higher academic and economic attractiveness in Western European countries/ the U. S. , there is the risk that future high performers stay abroad. At the same time, employers need qualified collaborators to be competitive and contribute to the regional local development. 16

Emigration and its economic and social impacts Need for action Lack of skilled labour force High unemployment rates Need for demanddriven and labour relevant educational schemes Serious labour market imbalances 17

References and further reads • • IMF – Staff Discussion Note https: //www. imf. org/external/pubs/ft/SDN/2016/sdn 1607 info. htm CESCI – Regional Analysis of the Danube Region http: //www. cesci-net. eu/planning-ref Savic, Mirko/ Dakic, Stojanka (2016) Demographics, migration and brain drain in the Danube Region, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics Subotica, Republic of Serbia, http: //economicthemes. com/pdf/et 2016 en 4_01. pdf Gál, Zoltán/ Lux, Gábor/ Illés (2013) Danube Region – Analysis and Long-Term Development Trends of the Macro-Region, Institute for Regional Studies, Research Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences https: //www. researchgate. net/publication/270958294_Danube_Region_ Analysis_and_Long-Term_Development_Trends_of_the_Macro-Region 18