Adjunct Professor John Stanley Institute of Transport and

- Adjunct Professor John Stanley Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies The University of Sydney Business School October 2018 The University of Sydney Page 1

Common goals for cities and regions 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Increase economic productivity Reduce environmental footprint Increase social inclusion and reduce inequality Improve health and safety outcomes Promote intergenerational equity Engage communities widely Take an integrated approach to the above goals OUTCOME GOALS 1 -5 ARE HELPED BY GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF CARS AND IN TO PUBLIC AND ACTIVE TRANSPORT The University of Sydney Page 2

The growing productivity gap: 1992 -2012 (NIEIR). The foundation for Plan Melbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters Productivity versus travel time to CBD (Melbourne 2012) The University of Sydney Page 3

Promoting productivity + sharing the benefits = efficiency plus equity – Plan. Melbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters are the key • NEICs are a way to promote urban productivity growth • Great accessibility of the clusters, including to/from growth areas, is vital • The NEICs, and middle suburbs, need more planning/budget focus The University of Sydney Page 4

Preferred land use development direction = compact polycentric plus corridors plus neighbourhoods 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Strong CBD and close surrounds Small number of high tech/knowledge-based clusters (NEICs in Plan. Melbourne 201750) Major urban renewal areas Strategic transit corridors (should be in Plan Melbourne) Series of 20 minute neighbourhoods Slower Melbourne fringe growth (70+% infill – population not houses) Higher fringe densities Regional model similar The University of Sydney Bo 01, Malmö, Sweden. Overall density ~40 dw/Ha. Page 5

Population growth pressures: Components of Victorian population growth, 1990 -2016 (quarterly data) (Source: ABS 2017, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. 3101. 0) Big jump in OS migration 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 Natural increase 10000 Net OS migration Net IS migration 5000 Mar-2017 Mar-2016 Mar-2015 Mar-2014 Mar-2013 Mar-2012 Mar-2011 Mar-2010 Mar-2009 Mar-2008 Mar-2007 Mar-2006 Mar-2005 Mar-2004 Mar-2003 Mar-2002 Mar-2001 Mar-2000 Mar-1999 Mar-1998 Mar-1997 Mar-1996 Mar-1995 Mar-1994 Mar-1993 Mar-1992 -10000 Mar-1991 -5000 Mar-1990 0 -15000 The University of Sydney Page 6

Melbourne’s population: growing very quickly but away from its jobs (Source: Author, from ABS census data) The University of Sydney Page 7

Do residents of the faster growing outer LGAs reap income benefits? (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham - Source: NIEIR) The University of Sydney Page 8

Capital requirement to remove the productivity gap for 6 fast growing outer municipalities (Source: NIEIR) • • • Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham accounted for 47% of Melbourne’s population growth 2011 -16 How much extra capital would have been needed for these LGAs to increase Gross Product/Working Age population at the state average rate from 1992 to 2017? Four core drivers, or ‘pillars’, of regional growth (NIEIR SOR) Ø Non-dwelling capital stock; knowledge creation capacity; supply chain strength; and skill employed • Estimated capital requirement is over $125 b for the backlog accumulated over 25 years and an additional$140 b by 2031 under business-as-usual • Citywide, overcoming increased traffic congestion adds an estimated $160 b • Adding these up and allowing for a bit of overlap suggests around $375 b additional investment will be required over 2017 -2031 (>half gov’t responsibility) • The. This represents underinvestment in: University of Sydney Page 9 Ø Transport infrastructure capital stock; Commercial capital stock; Community capital stock

Regional Victoria has the opportunity to take a greater population share but must tackle its productivity challenge NIEIR analysis Non-farm GRP per hour worked $CVM 75. 0 70. 0 65. 0 60. 0 55. 0 50. 0 45. 0 40. 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • This capital funding task is beyond current funding horizons • Slowing the rate of population growth seems part of the solution • Can regional Victoria play a bigger role in catering for population growth? • Without transplanted sprawl • A major productivity challenge needs to be overcome The University of Sydney Melbourne Metro Regional Victoria Page 10

Directions for local government? – – Local government needs a view about a sustainable rate of population growth for Melbourne, regional Victoria and Australia Ø Based on conversations with its communities that lead to a settlement strategy In my view, the right outcome will include a slower rate of Victorian/Melbourne population growth than at present, meaning a lower net OS migration rate, and a faster rate of population increase in regional Victoria Melbourne’s middle suburbs need to cater for a much bigger share of population growth Ø Mainly along strategic transit corridors (circumferential rail? ) Ø 20 minute neighbourhoods must be a key planning focus Investment spending on Melbourne’s fringe needs to be boosted substantially, its population growth rate slowed substantially (3% p. a. max? ) and densities increased Ø To a minimum of ~25 dw/Ha, as Toronto is adopting for greenfield (20 minute neighbourhood base) Ø The little stuff (e. g. , place making) is just as as important as the big stuff – For Regional Victoria to play a greater role – If local government showed a leadership role here, it would help make the case that it should partner with the state in strategic LUT planning for Melbourne and Victoria more broadly Ø The regional productivity challenge must be overcome Ø Needs a targeted approach (based on competitive advantage and much better PT accessibility) Ø Focus on better life chances for children and youth life in the regions The University of Sydney Page 11