Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik ALARO0 at ZAMG

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik ALARO-0 at ZAMG Experiences, verification, identified problems, …. Christoph Wittmann

Content § Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG § Experiences / verification / identified problems § Precipitation § Low Stratus § Temperature § Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

History Short history: § 09/2007 § 04/2009 § 05/2009 § 2010 § 06/2010 § 09/2010 § 10/2010 § 01/2011 § 03/2011 § ALARO-0 (minus 3 MT) operational (9. 6 km) full ALARO-0 operational (9. 6 km) start of daily ALARO-0 4. 8 km run (00 UTC) verification, tests, etc. implementation of CANARI surface assimilation ALARO-0 4. 8 km coupled to IFS name for model version: “ALARO 5 -AUSTRIA” ALARO 5 -AUSTRIA running 4 times / day ALARO 5 -AUSTRIA announced as operational model at ZAMG 09/2012 (? ) NEC-SX 8 R switched off at ZAMG = end of 9. 6 km ALARO-0 version Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Implementation of ALARO at ZAMG Operational model at ZAMG: “ALARO 5 -AUSTRIA” resolution: runs: forecast range: oro. /grid: time step: initialization: physics: dynamics: availability: 4. 8 km / 60 L 00 / 06 / 12 / 18 h 72 h mean / linear 180 s IFS (3 D) CANARI (2 D) ALARO-0, SK scheme hydrostatic 4 hours after init time Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

ALADIN-LAEF operational + upgrade settings Ensemble size Horizontal resolution Vertical resolution Runs/Day Forecast range Output-Frequency Model time step Coupling-Model (time -lagged) Coupling-Update 16+1 18 km / 11 km 37 layer / 45 layer 2 (00, 12 UTC) 60 h / 72 h 1 h 720 s / 400 s ECMWF-EPS (SV Vectors, first 16 members) 6 h Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Multiphysics New version brings nice improvements (esp. skill scores for precip. ) ALARO physics ALADIN-Fr physics Targets on: § Microphysics § Convection (shallow + deep), Turbulence § Cellular automaton approach included (2 members) § Radiation (radiative cloud condensate) § Screening level diagnostics (T 2 m, RH 2 m, 10 m gusts) § … never ending story (ideas+input needed …) TOUCANS and other new developments are always welcome Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Content § Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG § Experiences / verification / identified problems § Precipitation § Low Stratus § Temperature § Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, … Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Precipitation Experiences/Feedback § triggering of convection over orography too early (nothing new) § overestimation of (severe) convective precipitation over orography § underestimation of (stratiform) precipitation over flatland areas (e. g. northeastern part of Austria) E-SUITE launched end of April (using retuned microphysics, work by Radmila), should become operational within next weeks: Nice improvements for 2 of the 3 mentioned points … Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Winter case I winter case: frontal zone approaching alps ALARO 6. 5 km IFS ALARO 4. 8 km ALARO 9. 6 km COSMO-EU Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Winter case II winter case: frontal zone approaching alps Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Summer case II Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Triggering of convection Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Triggering of convection (COSMO vs. ALARO) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Severe convection I reports from regional centers in the south of Austria: overestimation of severe convection Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Severe convection II Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Severe convection III Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Verification Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Low stratus ALARO-1 Working days 25/05/2021 Experiences/Feedback: § ALARO 5 -AUSTRIA with better performance than IFS, COSMO(-EU) …. but just when using empirical subinversion scheme (SK) § In flatland areas performance is quite good § stratus in “resolved” valleys and basins still not sufficiently predicted Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Beispiel Hochnebel I IFS ALARO 10 Synoptikertreffen 25/05/2021 ALARO 5 MSG VIS Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Synoptikertreffen 25/05/2021 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Verification low stratus Vienna Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Temperatures ALARO-1 Working days 25/05/2021 Experiences/feedback: § Current PBL / SBL / surface representation with problems create a mixed layer in winter time (cold daytime bias) § general cold daytime bias during summer § best performance during spring / autumn § better performance during night Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Temperature ALARO-1 Working days 25/05/2021 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

2 m temperature verification Vienna during night time series 00+27 h AE/BIAS ALARO during day time series 00+36 h AE/BIAS ALARO Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Content § Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG § Experiences / verification / identified problems § § § Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Gusts Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, … Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Plans with ALARO at ZAMG Current priority: AROME-AUSTRIA (2. 5 km) … plan: operational in 2013 Migration NEC -> SGI Beside that: Ready for tests with new ALARO-1 developments Stratus (SK scheme vs. TOUCANS? ) Wind gusts AROME 2. 5 km vs. ALARO 5 km Continue work on multiphysics for LAEF Continue work on stochastic physics for LAEF Soon: AROME 1 km , ALARO 1 km ? Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Input for discussions Most important topics to be handled (as seen from ZAMG): § Triggering of convection § Intensity of convective precipitation § Missing (weak) stratiform events § Stratus in valleys, basins § Cold daytime bias § Wind+Gusts (10 m+100 m) … some of that already solved with ALARO-1? Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

SGI ICE X ALARO-1 Working days 25/05/2021 After almost 1 year of delay … … a new HPC is waiting at ZAMG for more complex physics, higher resolution, … … ready for work in few month (after migration work ) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik