Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education AT THE

Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Data & Implications for the Midwest Region Thursday, March 2, 2017 www. wiche. edu/knocking #Knocking 2016

Logistics Your Participation Open and close your control panel using the arrow in the orange box. Choose Mic & Speakers or Telephone (Note: All attendees will be muted. ) Submit questions and feedback in the Questions panel.

Agenda 1. High School Graduate Trends Peace Bransberger Senior Research Analyst, WICHE 2. Implications Eric Lichtenberger Deputy Director, Information Management & Research Illinois Board of Higher Education Olga Volokhova Data Team Manager, Business & Workforce Studies Indiana Department of Workforce Development 3. Q & A

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates • Public and Private High School Graduates • Public by Race/Ethnicity • Nation, Four Regions, 50 States, DC, and Guam & Puerto Rico (new)

U. S. High School Graduates • The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade • The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift • significantly toward a more diverse population Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

U. S. High School Graduates Overall Trend & Composition Compared to SY 2012 -13 (Projections) (Thousands) 3. 30 M 400 640 Hispanic 184 Asian/Pac. Isl. 32 Am. Ind. /Alaska Native 474 Black 298 Private Schools 1, 839 White 300 200 100 0 Hispanic -100 Black -200 Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools 2013 -14 2019 -20 2025 -26 2031 -32 -300 2012 -13 2018 -19 2024 -25 2030 -31 Thousands 3. 56 M ('25) 3. 44 M

Significant Regional Variation

Significant Regional Variation Total Public and Private High School Graduates

The Midwest 765 k 740 k 685 k

Midwest Region High School Graduates Overall Trend & Composition Compared to SY 2012 -13 (Projections) 744 K (Thousands) 80 673 K White 96 k +69% anic 5 52 8 k Whi te 2025 -26 20 -40 490 k -7% Asian/Pacific Islander Black Private schools Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools 2019 -20 40 0 Black 2013 -14 79 k +40% isp 6 k H Hispanic 60 446 k -16% -60 -80 -100 2031 -32 2012 -13 2018 -19 2024 -25 2030 -31

High School Graduates Cumulative Percent Change Class of 2015 to 2025 Declining or Flat Modest Increase Steady Increase Illinois (-4%) Missouri (3%) Iowa (9%) Indiana (-1%) Nebraska (6%) Kansas (14%) Michigan (-8%) Wisconsin (5%) Minnesota (12%) Ohio (0%) North Dakota (36%) South Dakota (18%) 11

High School Graduates by State Illinois 143, 000 / year on average 1% to 4% fewer through 2025 then 13% by 2031 -32 Non-White � 5% to 45% of Public Total 2013 -14 2019 -20 2025 -26 2031 -32 Ohio Michigan Indiana 119, 000 on average, 12% by ‘ 32 Non-White � 10% to 28% of Total 98, 500 on average, 20% by ‘ 32 Non-White � 3% to 27% of Total 71, 200 on average, 9% by ‘ 32 Non-White � 10% to 30% of Total

High School Graduates by State Missouri Wisconsin Minnesota 68, 500 on average, 3% by ‘ 32 Non-White � 3% to 25% of Total 65, 000 on average, 6% by ‘ 32 Non-White � 6% to 26% of Total 62, 700 on average Non-White � 9% to 29% of Total Iowa Kansas Nebraska 35, 600 on average Non-White � 10% to 24% of Total 35, 600 on average Non-White � 7% to 32% of Total 24, 000 on average Non-White � 9% to 32% of Total

High School Graduates by State North Dakota South Dakota 8, 900 on average Non-White � 20% to 32% of Total 9, 200 on average Non-White � 14% to 26% of Total

www. knocking. wiche. edu Report State Profiles Download Data

Implications Eric Lichtenberger Deputy Director, Information Management & Research Illinois Board of Higher Education Olga Volokhova Data Team Manager, Business & Workforce Studies Indiana Department of Workforce Development

Questions Several audience questions were about projections related to college students, including projected non-traditional age students and 2 - and 4 -year enrollments. WICHE does not produce these projections, but this may be helpful: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2024, Section 5 and Tables 13 -20, at https: //nces. ed. gov/pubs 2016/2016013. pdf. Contact: Peace Bransberger pbransberger@wiche. edu / 303 -541 -0257 www. knocking. wiche. edu 17