Volcanic Ash developments since 2010 Ian Cameron Met

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Volcanic Ash developments since 2010 Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation, June 2014

Volcanic Ash developments since 2010 Ian Cameron, Met Office Executive Head Aviation, June 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office

London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) • The London VAAC is an International Civil

London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) • The London VAAC is an International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated centre, responsible for issuing advisories for volcanic eruptions originating in Iceland the north-eastern corner of the North Atlantic. © Crown copyright Met Office

Lessons learned • Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics) • Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations

Lessons learned • Too much information – NOTAM/SIGMET/VAA (VA-Advisory/Graphics) • Insufficient Volcanic Ash Observations to verify forecasts • What are we forecasting? (leading to new Visible/discernible ash definitions) • Need for operators to assume responsibility for safe operation in contaminated airspace © Crown copyright Met Office

Volcanic Ash Stakeholder Mapping EC European ATM Community EU Programmes & Activities e. g.

Volcanic Ash Stakeholder Mapping EC European ATM Community EU Programmes & Activities e. g. EUMETSAT, ESA, EUFAR, EASA Euro. Control/EC EACCC Met & Atmospheric Agencies e. g. NWS’s, NOAA, EUMETNET VAACs NATS ICAO MET OFFICE ICAO led IAVWOPSG IATA (Airlines) IFALPA (Pilots) ICCAIA (Aerospace Industries) VAAC London, ADAQ & Observations: Satellite, Obs Programme, OBR IMO UK Civil aviation Green box: UK Met Office Blue star: Groups Grey box: External Organisations and groupings © Crown copyright Metbelonging Office Organisation to linked grouping Volcano Observatories Mo. U Steering Group NCAS BGS Research Centres/ Academia OEMs CAA led UK VAAG CAA & IAA (UK & IRE airline regulators) IUGG/WMO VASAG SAGE/ COBR Df. T led VAORG Cabinet Office Defence

Enhanced Volcanic ash Observations Radar Satellite Lidar Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer

Enhanced Volcanic ash Observations Radar Satellite Lidar Ash: descending and mixing into boundary layer Aircraft © Crown copyright Met Office Cloud Sun Photometer

National and European Ceilometer & Lidar Networks Met Office LIDARNET © Crown copyright Met

National and European Ceilometer & Lidar Networks Met Office LIDARNET © Crown copyright Met Office

Improved Volcanic ash modelling • All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on meteorological data

Improved Volcanic ash modelling • All dispersion modelling is critically dependant on meteorological data and ash observations • “Eruption Source Parameters” include start time, height, location, mass eruption rate and the variation of these with time (from Iceland Met Office) • Met Office Global NWP is used for volcanic ash applications • Moving to 17 km resolution in July 25 km grid Up to 144 hr 6 -hourly update 1. 5 km grid Up to 36 hr 6 -hourly update

Resuspended Ash • Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME • Daily resuspended

Resuspended Ash • Development of a resuspended ash scheme in NAME • Daily resuspended ash forecast produced for Iceland Met Office since late 2010 • Work with Bristol University on a resuspended ash event in August 2013 (paper submitted)

The VAAC Process Other models Met Office Weather forecast models Satellite + other observations

The VAAC Process Other models Met Office Weather forecast models Satellite + other observations Weather observations Volcano data NAME dispersion model © Crown copyright Met Office Forecaster VAAC chart

New forecasting tools and products Concentration charts © Crown copyright Met Office Annotated satellite

New forecasting tools and products Concentration charts © Crown copyright Met Office Annotated satellite images – used in daily Science/CAA briefing during an eruption

Conclusion • Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored and forecasts

Conclusion • Met Office will ensure that any volcanic eruptions are monitored and forecasts of ash movement are issued. • Met Office will utilise dispersion models to understand how any volcanic ash will move in the atmosphere. • Met Office will communicate this information to all airspace users utilising agreed products. • But it is operators that determine safe operations in contaminated airspace through their Safety Risk Assessments.

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