Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Steering Committee Meeting

Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010

Outline • • • Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds Implementation Plan Current Assessment Current Actions Comparison to Last Assessment January 29, 2010 2

Minimum Adequacy Thresholds • Energy – Annual Load/Resource Balance* • Physical • Economic = 0 MWa = ? ? ? • Capacity – Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin* • Physical Winter • Physical Summer • Economic = 23% = 24% = ? ? ? *As defined in the Adequacy Standard January 29, 2010 3

Implementation Plan ü Green Status • Proceed with normal planning activities • Compare results with other regional reports ü Yellow Alert • Regional report • Forum review of data and assumptions ü Red Alert • Regional conference • Regional review of data and assumptions • Identify inadequate utilities January 29, 2010 4

Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys January 29, 2010 5

Annual Energy Load/Resource Balance January 29, 2010 6

January Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin January 29, 2010 7

July Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin January 29, 2010 8

Assessing the Adequacy Status (Year when threshold is violated) • Energy 2027 • January Capacity 2030 • July Capacity 2015 January 29, 2010 9

Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys January 29, 2010 July Capacity Violation 5 Years Out = Yellow 10 Alert

Current Actions • RPS legislation is pushing wind development • Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition • Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2029 (on average) • Forum will review data and methodology January 29, 2010 11

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment Annual Energy L/R Bal (MWa) ‘ 08 Assessment (2013) 3 -Years Out 2, 701 5 -Years Out 1, 996 Min ‘ 10 Assessment (2015) 4, 651 3, 958 0 Difference 1, 950 1, 962 January 29, 2010 0 12

Annual Energy Assumptions 5 -Years Out Summary ‘ 08 Assessment ‘ 10 Assessment (2013) (2015) Diff Net Demand 23508 22484 -1024 Net Resources 25504 26442 938 L/R Balance 1996 3958 1962 January 29, 2010 13

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment January Capacity Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin ’ 08 Assessment (2013) ’ 10 Assessment (2015) Difference January 29, 2010 3 -Yrs Out 46% 50% 4% 5 -Yrs Out 40% 47% 7% Min 23% 14

January Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5 -Years Out Summary ‘ 08 Assessment ‘ 10 Assessment (2013) (2015) Diff Net Demand 29972 29473 -499 Net Resources 41842 43300 1458 40% 47% +7% Reserve Margin January 29, 2010 15

2010 vs. 2008 Assessment July Capacity Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin ’ 08 Assessment (2013) ’ 10 Assessment (2015) Difference January 29, 2010 3 -Yrs Out 34% 27% -7% 5 -Yrs Out 29% 24% -5% Min 24% 16

July Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5 -Years Out Summary ‘ 08 Assessment ‘ 10 Assessment (2013) (2015) Diff Net Demand 27075 29361 2286 Net Resources 35297 36379 1082 29% 24% -5% Reserve Margin January 29, 2010 17