2010 Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy Technical Committee
- Slides: 8
2010 Northwest Regional Forecast Resource Adequacy Technical Committee April 22, 2010
The Forecast is… Sum-of-utilities integrated resource plans � 10 year timeframe – updated annually � Load forecasts – normal weather � Conservation – utility estimates � Generating resources – expected firm � Hydro generation – firm (critical water) � Future resources – utility plans � Capacity need – utility estimates Forecast = Needs Assessment
Forecast ≠ Adequacy Assessment Forecast Adequacy Assessment Deterministic Loss of load probability Answers 10 year questions: Answers 3 -5 year question: � How much power do we need to acquire? � What resources are planned to fill the need? � What is the probability that we will not meet demand?
Needs are forecast to grow Northwest Requirements & Resources 26 000 Annual Energy - MWa 25 000 Requirements 24 000 Energy Efficiency 23 000 22 000 Resource Need = 2, 000 MWa 21 000 20 000 Existing 19 000 18 000 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20
Plans in place Planned Resources Other 3, 990 MWa Renewables, 334, 8% Wind, 501, 13% Natural Gas, 1 344, 34% Conservation, 1 811, 45%
Grappling with capacity �Historic approach raises questions ◦ Hydro sustained peaking capability ◦ Accounting for reserves/planning margin �System Planning Committee’s interim approach used ◦ Survey of utilities’ capacity needs based on individual utility criteria
Capacity 2015 snapshot Capacity Need 3 000 Winter Megawatts 2 500 Summer 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 - Total Idaho Power Pacifi. Corp Portland General Electric Puget Sound Energy
Future focus �Understanding conservation accounting �Refining regional capacity assessment ◦ How to include reserves ◦ What to use for planning margin
